Miami and Why

I think i'm 3-1 in the CFP and 8-8 overall as Saturday I sucked and went 0-4.   The CFP games are now going to be played on neutral fields - does it make a difference - not sure, however, I want to be as close to an apples to apples comparison as possible so thus I analyze this from that perspective by looking at games which are played on neutral fields vice home and away.   

Let's look at some numbers:

         Miami   35 10 6 27

-6    Ohio St   24 1 1 21    

Ohio St opened up at -6, currently around -9.5 (madduxsports.com).    Ohio St is better in total off at 24 vs 35; Total Def at 1 vs 10;  Sagarin rank (most recent) 1 vs 6; and Schedule strength 21 vs 27.   I think ohio st is missing a starting off lineman but none of this opt out stuff.       

From what's on paper it looks as if Ohio St should crush and thus the jump in the line.   However, when you look at history of games where the opening line was -6 for the bottom team and this scenario where the bottom team is better in all 4 categories  - there have been 4 games since  I started collecting data (quite a while)  and all 4 dogs won the games straight up.  The games were - 1.  Boise st/Tcu - Boise took it 17/10; Nebraska/Ucla  37/29; Florida/Mich  41/15; Iowa/Miss st 27/22 .     The game between Florida/Mich - was the most similar to the numbers in tonights game.    

My play's tonight:

1. Miami +9.5   -112

2.  Miami  ML  +276    (smaller play)

Good luck all

Gl home boy. About to cap this game myself shortly. 

@TheBuddah

BOL and Happy New Year!!!

@Rolexsports

 Thanks bud - back at ya

B

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks and back at ya bud.  

@camby700

 Longtime no see - thanks and back at ya bud.  

GL on your plays Happy New Years @TheBuddah 

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac and back at ya bud. 

Bol 

@venezolanisimo

 Thanks bud and back at ya

@BiaSaigon

 Thanks bud and back at ya . 

No Ohio St did not open as 6 pt favs

@Captain Lock

 College Football Lines: Live College Football Point Spreads & Odds

Not a bad day at the office !!!!

@Fuse

@bet-to-win

 Thanks guys 

Got em good home boy  nice day we had ..

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks bud.

@Rolexsports

Yes - simply awesome

Never seen a team lay down like that....

@THEMUGG

 At the end it was a little weird -letting him walk in but - i guess that was there only chance. 

What you think bout the games tommorw 

@TheBuddah

 happy new year Buddah,