Memphis vs Rice Betting Preview: Friday Night Trap Game or Tigers Dominance?

The Setup: Classic Sandwich Spot for Memphis

The No. 25 Memphis Tigers (7-1, 3-1 AAC) head to Houston on a short week riding the emotional high of a comeback win over ranked South Florida, but with their biggest remaining game at Tulane looming next Friday. Meanwhile, the Rice Owls (4-4, 1-3 AAC) are fighting for bowl eligibility after an inspiring double-overtime upset of UConn.

On paper, this looks like Memphis in a walk. In reality? This is one of the trickiest spots you'll find all season.

Let's start with the obvious: Memphis is the far superior team.

The Tigers boast the nation's number one offense in rushing EPA and rank 14th nationally averaging 238.7 rushing yards per game. Their dual-threat RB tandem of Sutton Smith (6.4 YPC) and Greg Desrosiers Jr. (6.8 YPC) has been virtually unstoppable. Add in QB Brendon Lewis's ability to hurt you with his legs (475 rushing yards, 7 TD), and you have an offense built to impose its will.

Rice's run defense? 102nd nationally. They've been gashed repeatedly, including allowing 295 yards to South Florida just two weeks ago and getting absolutely demolished 61-13 by UTSA. The Owls simply don't have the personnel to match Memphis's physicality up front.

Memphis is also 7-1 ATS this season, one of the best cover rates in college football. That's not luck; that's a well-coached team that consistently exceeds expectations. They're 4-1 ATS on the road and have covered spreads of 13.5 or more three times in their last four road games.

1. The Trap Game Factor

Memphis just survived an emotional comeback win over No. 18 South Florida, erasing a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit. Next week, they face 9-2 Tulane in a game that will likely decide the AAC championship picture. This Rice game is sandwiched directly in between, and it's on a short week.

Ryan Silverfield can preach focus all he wants, but these are 18-22 year old kids who just beat a ranked team and know the biggest game of their season is six days away. The mental and physical letdown is real.

Rice runs a spread shotgun triple option offense that only Air Force and Army utilize more run plays per game. They're averaging 226 rushing yards per game (13th nationally) despite being one of the worst offenses in FBS.

Why does this matter? Memphis has been gashed by option-heavy teams this season. UAB rushed for 200 plus yards in their upset win. South Florida ran for 295 yards and averaged nearly 8 yards per carry. Both teams nearly pulled off upsets, and UAB actually did.

Memphis ranks 24th nationally against the run on paper, but the film shows vulnerability against zone-read and option concepts. Rice RB Quinton Jackson just posted 168 rushing yards and 4 total TDs in the UConn upset and has elite speed that can exploit gaps.

Rice is 2-2 at home this season, and while they're just 1-3 ATS at home, they've kept games competitive. They lost to Navy by 7, lost to FAU by 6, and just beat UConn in double overtime as a 10-point dog. The Friday night lights, Halloween atmosphere, and desperate need for bowl eligibility creates juice.

Memphis has allowed 564 yards (vs USF) and 470 yards (vs UAB) in their last two games, both against offenses that wanted to run the football. The Tigers' pass defense ranks 92nd nationally, and while Rice can't throw, the run defense issues are concerning.

More importantly, Memphis hasn't won a game this season when they lose the turnover battle. Rice doesn't create many turnovers (only 6 all season), but if they can protect the ball and win the TO margin or even push, they'll have a shot.

Lean: Rice +14

I'm not suggesting Rice wins outright, but this number feels 3-4 points too high given the circumstances. Memphis wants to run clock, grind out first downs, and get out of Houston healthy for Tulane. Rice will milk the play clock with their option attack and keep this game in the 20s or low 30s.

If this game lands anywhere in the 27-17, 31-20, 28-14 range, all realistic outcomes, Rice covers. Memphis needs to win by two touchdowns plus a field goal to cover. That means scoring in the mid-30s, which they can do, but requires everything clicking in a trap game spot.

The sharp money agrees: 69% of spread bets on Rice despite the public hammering Memphis tells you where the value lies.

Total: 48.5

Play: UNDER 48.5

This is the strongest play of the night.

Both teams want to run the football. Memphis runs on 55% or more of plays. Rice runs on nearly 60% of plays and uses a triple option that eats clock. The forecast shows cooler temperatures and possible wind, further favoring ground and pound football.

Memphis averages 37.6 PPG, but Rice's defense, while not elite, has held five opponents under 28 points this season. They rank 18th nationally in defensive success rate, meaning they're good at keeping offenses off schedule. If Rice can force Memphis into 3rd and 7 or longer situations, Lewis's mobility becomes limited and the passing game struggles (211 YPG, 165th nationally).

Rice averages just 21.6 PPG (110th nationally) and can't pass the ball. They're one-dimensional, and Memphis, despite recent struggles, still ranks 24th against the run. I don't see Rice getting to 24 points unless they score a defensive or special teams TD.

Projected Score: Memphis 27, Rice 17 = 44 total points

Brendon Lewis (Memphis QB): Suffered ankle injury vs UAB, returned to throw for 307 yards vs USF. Appears healthy but played on short rest.

Khary Crump (Rice CB): Team's top corner is suspended indefinitely, hurting secondary depth.

Chase Jenkins (Rice QB): Returned from injury vs UConn, posted career high 191 passing yards and 248 total yards.

Memphis leads all time series 3-2

Last meeting: Memphis won 27-20 in 2024 (covered as 6 point favorites)

Rice's option offense has given Memphis trouble historically

This is Rice's best start (3-1 after 4 games) since 2001

The Pick

Best Bet: UNDER 48.5

Secondary Play: Rice +14

Reasoning: This screams low scoring grinder. Two run heavy teams, short week, cooler weather, and Memphis playing conservative with Tulane looming. The situational spot favors the underdog getting nearly two touchdowns, and the clock eating style of both offenses favors the under.

Memphis wins this game, but they win it 27-17 or 24-13, not 35-17. Take the points with Rice and hammer the under.

Gimme the OWLS AND THE UNDER 49

Agree 

Good luck Jimmy 

Rice d looks like cowboys 3rd 16 give up 30 guys open everywhere. Hope Rice can eat clock not score or Memphis get over by themselves

Bla , bla , bla