L2Thirst Week 6 Already

WE KNOW WHO THE NUMBER #1 TEAM IS AT THE HALFWAY MARK! I was prepared to leave my previous undefeated at #1 from what I saw in the first 4 games of the season but after tonight, there is a.....

New King #1 = DUCKS!

- I don't know how they did it with a young QB, in a hostile environment and jet lagged but they did it with poise, will, talent and a seriously good gameplan for EVERYTHING!

#2. OHIO STATE 

--------------------------------Next 2 are what the Committee 

would choose if the season ended most likely , but they are not the 3rd and 4th best teams

3. Miami

4. Texas Tech

---------------In the Playoff--------(some from #9 - 12 fit due to conference inclusion)

5. Ole Miss

6. Indiana

7. Penn St. - that game was theirs but Oregon took from them in OT

8. LSU

9. Iowa St.

10. Alabama

11. Georgia Tech

12. Memphis  (best Group of 5?)

------------------- THE REST are next in line best teams/chance for playoffs

13. Texas 

14. Oklahoma

15. Vanderbilt

16. Georgia

---------------------Have a chance

17. Texas AM

18. Missouri

19. Louisville

20. North Texas 

tie  Utah

tie Michigan

---------------------Outside Looking In

No order to this list :

Undefeated > BYU, Houston, Navy, USC, Maryland

Playoff Hunt One Loss > Tennessee, FSU, Virginia, Illinois, Arizona St, Mississippi St, USF, Tulane, TCU, Washington, Nebraska, Cincy, California

Best Two Loss > Notre Dame

----------------------------------------------------

My Week 5 Record: 

 3 - 6  ATS/Totals  (-2 Units)

-$50 loss on Exotic bets  (Oregon win by 6 pts netted me $200 profit)

Season Record:

20 - 17  ATS/Totals   (+1 Unit gain)

+$12 Exotic Bets 

Time to reduce plays to 1-3 play focus and press or Double Up/Continue with Teasers/In-game bets 

Just looked at my Top 4 again....and realize I did not have an SEC team in Top 4!!  DOH

Top 4

1. Ducks

2. Ohio St 

3. Ole Miss

4. Miami

...............

TTECH just underneath

Just capped and compared next week before lines come out and its a take your lady out kind of night.....might head to the track maybe ....blah games 

Georgia Tech in Top 12 why?

They have the easiest pathway with really only 1 big game that will define them left and even if they lose that game, depending on how good the result is, they still might get a nod unless another ACC team goes undefeated.

They play Georgia in their final game but to that game, they basically don't have a roadblock in front of them or defining game left 

Others in their Conference:

Virginia - 2 defining games both on the road 

Louisville - 1 defining game but 3-4 additional roadblocks (tough schedule but can manage if good enough)

Miami - has roughly 4-5 hurdles to stay undefeated starting at FSU next week which will determine FSU's fate going forward and to a lesser degree, Miami's 

FSU - has one defining game (they defined themselves by beating Bama but gave it away to Virginia loss) and 2 other roadblocks

-------------------------------------------------------------

Group of FIVE:

-N.Texas appears to have the best pathway with 2 roadblocks

-Tulane has one defining game and 1 roadblock but one loss already

-USF has 3 roadblocks that are all on the road 

-Memphis has 4 roadblocks but gain the top rating from their ability demonstrated on both sides of the ball and are set up well to handle these roadblocks 

What happens in SEC?

-those are not auto bids into playoffs despite perfect records because the rubber hits the road each week now when each team faces roadblocks that will define their season

BIG 10

-many games of top 4-5 teams will peak later on but the Oregon/PSU battle determined they are both in the mix for sure and Ohio St. road win in Washington solidifies its status but does not determine its ranking ..... games vs other Top 5 teams in Big 10 will 

-Penn St. must take care of business the rest of the way but could still be in Playoff with a second loss to a top team

New King #1 = DUCKS!

- I don't know how they did it with a young QB, in a hostile environment and jet lagged but they did it with poise, will, talent and a seriously good gameplan for EVERYTHING!

Agreed… that was beyond impressive. Well prepared, focused, everything went their way….Ducks 1 Bucks 2 

Agreed JJ 

Dante Moore is a number 1 draft pick whenever that appears if he continues to perform like that on the biggest stage !

LSU also stamped they are legit despite being hamstrung at RB ...... Ole Miss is stocked with talent too but they will have to prove they can win the BIG ONE on the road in the SEC 

Georgia - Alabama on the big stage now = dropped passes, missed assignments but they will probably tighten up by the end of the season because there is just too much talent on the field 

How did you do last week?  I would look but your selections are difficult to sort out. 

Think USC no longer undefeated.

Good eye ....correct. I am doing this at 1 am while I play on a poker table online ...waiting for pairs and AK type of hands so I do my sorting in between

I went 3 - 6 

Even on Exotics because I did a winning margin....actually, lost $50 on parlay so it was expected to be an avg week after a killer week before but I pressed on throwing out plays

I am cutting back and think I have one ready that you will appreciate

@Last2thirst

 Ok I know you’ll be great this week 

Play #1 - MICHIGAN UNDER 41.5 x 3 UNITS

- I see a tidy 27 - 13 at most, likely 24 - 10 win for Michigan

- they go to California for a game the week after and I cannot see them giving too many indications in their long passing plan to USC who are a dynamo at home. Can I see Michigan dinking and dunking with screens and some sideline passes/slants....yes but what I see of the rookie QB for Michigan is a lot of balls sailing overhead so they will hone him this week in practice...

Wisky is #1 vs the run and that includes playing Alabama so they will provide enough resistance to force Michigan punts occasionally....Michigan has a sublime placekicker but I don't think they will force long ones and leave field position for Wisky ...they will punt if near the Wisky 37-42 yd line I bet....pin them just like they will need to do vs USC 1-2x coming up

Sticking my neck out here but I see the line is coming down and that indicates to me a polished defensive game with very little risk taking on offense with no need to do so vs a meh Wisky offense 

I plan on being conservative in my sides this week.... I have my eye on things but gonna watch lines and use TEASER for sure

HOKIES - opened at 3'

NCST beat Virginia and ECU - Hokies dominated them on the road - outgained by 100 yds / 5 sacks- 8 TFL, and averaged 7.4/rush..... WF underrated, but a weak road team, off OT loss / physical game to GT - winnable game on deck. Line should close at 7 or more.  Firing the coach often helps - it takes oddsmakers a bit to catch up. See Okie St/UCLA.

Could I see a 31 - 9,  31 - 10 score in Michigan game....sure

The last time Michigan put up 38 on Wisky, they had JJ McCarthy, Corum BUT McNamara played instead of JJ 

B.A. 

Tough sledding for me with the middie teams and much respect if you can find that nugget to exploit. It takes me all week getting through my matchups to find something in there and by then I tend to lose the line edge

Really eyeing two games with an edge that I see.....

UNLV @ Wyoming 

Sparty @ Nebraska

Texas @ Florida has my interest too..... with Red River on deck.....throw in that Kent St @ Oklahoma game -45.5 at home ....I can see sub city there for sure with some drives afforded for the starters to keep them tight 

Boise - ND should be a track meet with a total of 63.5 .....Notre Dame is gonna steamroll the rest of the way hoping for a backdoor ticket into Playoff....Carr looked real good last game 

Play #2 - UNDER 53.5 Washington/Maryland x 1U

- this is a good defense for Maryland and Washington is good too

- Malik likes to throw and get out of trouble with his legs....they don't run a lot....Washington has been pretty good and are traditionally very sound in the secondary

- a check of last year shows Washington only scoring 18 pts @ Rutgers in Week 5 and 19 pts at Iowa in Week 7. Last years defense I recall was not as strong as this year

I can see a tight game and I think I might sneak in a winning margin 1-6 pts bet on Maryland for the upset ...it should be around +500 (haven't checked)

....still parsing myself through these lines slowly but might take a break and let them brew 

I will be on Wisc 

For the rest of the way, I am going to hone in and raise my bet amount. I also plan on continuing the teaser which is where I can take a wider variety.

@Last2thirst

 I knew you were talking about how Penn State needs to impress moving forward...I saw the line next week at Ucla move from -27 to -25.5....any read on that movement....?

Any team that goes west has to deal with jetlag and sometimes intense fall heat in California....

I tend to see teams preserving themselves if they are a contender. You simplify things when dopey from jetlag. They step on the field, they win and I don't care what kind of game Nico has, he does not have the line or the receiver talent to knock this PSU defense off of its stride for more than one drive

Line is coming down because UCLA offers no boost to their resume and the fact Franklin will simplify the playbook and not risk their offense with two studs in Singleton and K-Tron.....I would dive into UCLA's ability vs the run to answer the fact, PSU would need to win the pts per drive battle 4-0 in TDs vs UCLA not getting any pts. 

I would focus on the total after inspecting UCLA's best part of their defensive stats 

Will PSU be interested in scoring > 35 pts ....not really...they could fall into it

Will they want to burn clock with run game? Yes 

Will UCLA be able to take advantage of their less than optimum ball possession for their offense? Maybe 2 drives score and if its 3 scores, chances are the max is 13  or 17 ....Total is 50.5 ..... 35-17 or 35 - 14 win?  

You have to decide what angle you would take and I feel that if you think they can score more than 35 ...I would take OVER

I don't like the line. If it came down below -23, it might be ok

@Last2thirst.

Though I think it might be tough for Ucla to score against that defense...but ...Thanks for the input...

You are welcome to look at each week's result from last year. I book mark the prior season when I know and look what happened with some teams when they move 3 times zones .... You are welcome to skim through and look for PSU how they did when they went out west 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/week/6/year/2024/seasontype/2/group/80

@Last2thirst

 Much appreciated..

@Last2thirst

Print out linesheets from Northcoast or Scores and Odds...

On Monday/Tuesday - use SP+ to set a line for the following weeks games. In games of interest, note lookahead/letdown spots. Steele lists many series trends too. Use Oddsharks/database to see if a given team plays well in this spot, and head to head series trends.  

 >> week 7 - check out Iowa @ Wisky - Iowa off a loss, then BYE / Wisky in a Michigan/Ohio State sammich. Does Iowa play well off a loss? (yes) Do they play well off a bye? (yes). Do they play well vs Wisky, esp. on the road? (yes).

 * what should the line be? Iowa -6 or so ... NOW you have a week+ to check out match-up issues - can Wisky stop the run - can Iowa D stop Wisky O - is Iowa QB healthy?

When the lines open - know what you will do, what number you want - WHEN CAN I GET THE NUMBER I WANT?

 eg. maybe I say I'll take Iowa at 7 or less, for one unit - if above, I'll pass (or play smaller up to 8'). Maybe 1.25 units at 5/6. Maybe Wisky somehow plays Michigan tough - you see a crazy 3 - know in advance - you'll bet 1.5 units. Note- often the number moves (to) SP+.  Meaning if SP+ says 6 - line opens at 8' - it's probably dropping. If 4, it's going up.

For supplemental PR  - Sagarin not bad this year - Collin Wilson at Action Network is excellent / free. The pirated newsletters at the RR are a great source - use the updated schedules (for spots). Brad Powers' numbers are probably the best next to SP+.

I'll typically do the next week's numbers while I watch MNF. Then add notes as the week progresses. Staying a few weeks ahead is really the only way if you're serious about this stuff...

Good thread 

Thank BA.... I used to use Sagarin but lately I have been using SP+ update and record all my games in a spreadsheet. 

I will look into Brad Power's most definitely ...thank you. Every year, I add a new wrinkle or try something different. TBH, I am pretty serious BUT.... I am only about a good 7 years in or so into really crafting some angles and getting ahead like you say but not with every line. I marvel at how you and some others have it in your blood from years of doing it. Concerning horses, I am decades in that game with standardbreds but like I said to my wife, I am seriously more passionate about Horse Racing and College Football now than more than anything on tv and in sports in general, save some great college basketball games and the hometown team on a roll. Blue Jays have a shot a the WS this year and its been pure joy.

I appreciate the tips. Thank you