L2Thirst Week 4 Musing and Picks

I want to make one points that attracks me to dogs is past scores volatility 

where the favorites exceed their past lines by at least 20 points.  It draws attention.  When the cover 1 or 2 times after that, favorite better really start trusting these teams.  Also 2 previous covers and the recent past week they thrashed their line.  All this draws and attention and creates a line that is volatile 

if covers had photo sharing I could illustrate this more. 

All this volatile is why I make so many plays.  I am using the volatile schedules and the teams I do focus on meander.  These are typically non elite teams or definitely out side the top 10 teams. 

Vandy is on at least 2 covers in a row both those covers are by 25+ points vs the line. What tends to happen in their next games is the line maker can add on a few points because his exactly fo we evaluate what the fair and even line should be. The previous line volatility always catches up and teams schedules become more difficult.  When trust is identified by bettors an over lined game occurs. 

BYU comes to mind this week.  Yes they are only 2-0 ats but dating back to last season bowl destruction of Colorado it’s 3-0.  BYU is showing no signs of weakness and I think this game that could be exposed.  

Lastly please keep a running list of your plays so I can follow and track so we can discuss and make a balanced attack.  

Play #6 - Maryland +10 x HALF U

- better offense and similar defense ranks getting +10 points here?

- I did not realize Maryland's defense was rated so high 

Updated SP+ Comparison:

Maryland > 43. Mary   67th OFF/23rd DEF

Wisconsin > 52. Wisc   79th OFF / 27TH DEF

Shouldn't this line be closer to Wisconsin -2.5/3 ?

Hey Spottie....you have to look at the Offense ratings to see if there are comparables....I am pretty sure Vandy's offense is rated higher than BYU's and their defense is just as good...you will see it appear soon. I am just about to update the next set and post 

3rd post/update > 31st -64th overall ranking WEEK 3 SP+ 

Overall rank OFF/DEF ranks

31. Clem 38/30
32. Wash 39/31
33. Flst 52/22
34. Iowa 78/12
35. Bayl 10/71
36. Kans 19/59
37. Pitt 33/47
38. Gtech 24/52
39. Ariz 42/37
40. SMU 20/66
41. Ky 62/29
42. ArizSt 41/38
43. Mary 67/23
44. Cincy 50/34
45. MissSt 37/48
46. Rutg 32/54
47. Minn 95/11
48. S.Car 71/26
49. Navy 30/57
50. Hou 75/24
51. Tula 28/61
52. Wisc 79/27
53. Calif 64/36
54. K-St 57/43
55. WVU 51/51
56. NCSt 40/65
57. Syrc 34/80
58.MichSt 77/39
59. UCF 60/49
60. Toled 59/53
61. Boise 36/78
62. Virg 56/60
63. J-Mad 61/56
64. B.C. 54/67

4th and final update > 1st -30th overall ranking WEEK #3 SP+ OFF/DEF + overall ranking update

Overall rank OFF/DEF ranks

1. Penn St 5 / 3
2. Oregon 2 / 8
3. OhioS 9 / 2
4. Alab 6 / 6
5. OleM 7 /13
6. Tenn 12/10
7. Okla 21/ 5
8. Georg 8 /17
9. USC 3 /35
10. Miami 1 /44
11. Mizz 17/18
12. TexasT 4/40
13. India. 18/19
14. Texas 49/ 1
15. Utah 35/ 7
16. Illino 23/20
17. LSU 25/15
18. Mich 46 /4
19. Aub 29/14
20. TAM 16/32
21. Nebr 43/ 9
22. ND 26/28
23. Iwst 44/16
24. TCU 13/42
25. Arky 11/46
26. Louisv 14/45
27. Vandy 31/33
28. BYU 48/21
29. Memp 15/55
30. Flor 47/25

Summary of my Plays:

TEASERS > view Post #2 on my first page

SIDES/TOTALS:

Sept 14 >  Side Play #1 - USC -16 x 1U 

-this should be a  42 - 24 type of game at most (that is being generous for Mich St. as USC defense is decent)

-updated fact: USC with  #3 best OFF/ 35th DEF......... Mich St. with 39th best DEF

Play #2 Iowa -2.5 x 1U

-updated fact: 78th OFF / 12 DEF  facing  #32 OFF/54th DEF << I think they are poorer than this!

Sept 15 > Play #3  UNLV -2.5 (Bet365) x 2U 

UNLV 76th overall with 55th best OFF facing the overall ranked 115th ranked Miami Ohio with 136th best OFF/58th DEF

Sept 17 > Plays #4 /5 - Vanderbilt OVER 53.5 x1U

 ........and Vanderbilt -27 x HALF U 

Vandy is ranked #27th and beat a Virginia Tech home for 44 pts at home and they are way better rated than Georgia St who are ranked 127th overall and the 133rd worst defense, having to contend with the 30th ranked offense that is balanced and also have the 32nd best defense..... I don't expect more than 17 pts from GeoSt

Sept 17 > Play #6 Maryland +10 x HALF U

-fishy line going up for Wisconsin who have a weaker overall rank, a weaker offense and a weaker defense when compared in updated SP+

I am considering these lines/Totals as well:

UNDER UCF-UNC 47.5 (afternoon #) > still 47.5 now

OVER NCState-Duke 58 now

Virginia -15.5 ....have to assess, how well can Stanford move the ball because I know VA will move it on Stanford!

Washington -19.5 ....payback for last year and Wash way better overall on both sides of the ball

SamH +39.5 ....can they score 6-7 ....that is all I think I need from them to get this cover with a defunct offense for Texas

Cal/SDSU 48 total...can I get 17 pts from SDSU and if so, surely Cal can move on SDSU defense for more than 30?

UNDER 47.5 Hawaii...best defense in years and QB may not play so they should get 17-20.....doubt Fresno scores more than 28 on this defense

VOLS -39 ....they can move the ball and Vols defense was stinky a little so 56 -17 score is what I get for that ....maybe Vols tighten up more to allow only 13-14 and score more points on offense 59-63 pts? That offense if fully capable!! The defense is rated 10th so maybe 56 -10 score ...even 52-10 is more appropriate 

Strength of schedule? Did you peek into this? 

Miami Oh played 2 big 10 teams and UNLV’s best opponent is UCLA. 

Yes I did. How did MiaOh fare in those? Had trouble moving the ball. 

I put a lot more faith into SP+ than I do Jeff Sagarin and Phil Steele. And the reason for this, SP+ has out predicted early on the past two years, the best 15 teams and where they should be positioned and they put a lot of time into gathering their intel and ratings preseason that they release on Aug 14 every summer.....they are the latest to set their parameters and they always look different compared to the coaches poll/AP Poll and the other two I mentioned. I kicked around doing a comparison between those but decided I would just begin to go with using their comparatives on defense and offense to consider in matchups sans head to head which I look at....SOS which you mentioned and so on......I  take EVERYTHING in consideration when weighing a selection as well as my gut 

I am sure I am going to find a few more as I put things to paper today....most of my time is getting my very detailed and organized spreadsheet together ...as well as inputting each week's spread results with the numbers they went off at for the favorite....since this is the beginning, I am doing this very well, very carefully and it will pay dividends for this year and beyond

We are not congruent. I am on Miami Oh.  

UNLV might beat me though.  I look at Miami and even though they have terrible stats so did Akron before last week.  I just feel like UNLV can help the get back do positive data on the scoresheet.

TBD

The handshake emoji and moose emoji are next to each other and with my fat finger typing you almost got a moose.  

You have to look at offense and defense prowess too ..... not just the number. The number is set to fool the public which you are good at interpreting higher values. But at -2.5 for UNLV....do you think MIAM OH will drive the ball down the field close enough to score pts when they don't get much practice at it and UNLV has pedigree in playing winning football ....over 11 wins last year but surely they are not a 5-8 team this year? The pieces they have on defense and offense far outweight what MIA-Oh has at scoring and prevention positions in combo

If the line were -6 or -4.5 even.....you might have a case for a backdoor but axe yourself this...... if UNLV is down in the 4th Q, do they have the pedigree to flip the score and cover = yes!

Does MiamOh have the offensive pedigree ranked last in OFF in division 1 ....to come down the field and flip the score to force a 11 win team last year to all of a sudden not focus even that much more when they lead division 1 in secondary cornerback/LBs takeaways??

You have to think of game logistics as well and how most matches play out on a close line set by Vegas...just saying

By the way, I bet on what is most LIKELY to happen, just like I bet Texas Tech to cover -23.5 by thinking about how the game would go....I said TTECH would be up by 4-5 scores by 3rd Q and likely relax and that is what happened and I think they won by 28-30 pts?

week<7 and ppp:F and pp:F and p:F and AD and ats streak<0    These are 68-35 66%

a week 4 to 6 away dog that currently failed their previous 3 spreads and were favorites in those last 3 failures and next week will be favored one again

SMU has a bye next week and the following week masseyratings has SMU -8.5  next game to Syracuse

@Last2thirst

 I dont like UNLV 

I probably shouldn't be so Strong on Miami either bit small dogs do very well ATS 

I think UNLV is in a dead spot and I also think that UNLV showed weakness in week 1 that their last 2 opponents failed to expose.  Is Miami Oh good enough ? Nope not against the teams they faced so far.   like the situation and lined dogs less that +3 points are very strong.  

in 2 Big10 road games MiaO has scored 17 points on the season. If they continue doing this they will/ lose. UNLV? has scored 30 points in all games.

see this poster is aware of small dogs too. ts a real thing.

https://www.covers.com/forum/college-football-33/week-4-ncaaf-103974449

GL this week...