Cincinnati -2.5 MIAMI OH
The Redhawks are a top tier MAC team and they play rough and tough defense as evidenced by their week 1 slog with Northwestern which they dropped by the score of 13-6. However the Miami offense just isn’t very good at all. The only reason the game was close was because Northwestern coughed up 2 fumbles. Miami was never able to get anything going, Gabbert, their QB, threw 2 interceptions. On the ground, they were even worse, averaging only 1.7 yards per carry. The Wildcats were the much better team. The Miami offense was terrible in week 1 scoring just six points on 267 total yards. The Northwestern offense was a no show against Duke, scoring only 13 points in regulation. The Duke defense isn’t known to be lights out..far from it, so the fact that Northwestern scored only 13 against Miami shouldn’t be misconstrued as having a world beater defense.
This is an intrastate old school rivalry game and to the winner goes the Victory Bell. If you look at the 20 computers that have already assessed the capabilities of these teams, the Massey Composite has them ranked virtually identical. So why are the Bearcats giving points on the road? Because they are the better team, that’s why. Last year, the Redhawks beat Cincinnati in an exciting overtime battle (even though Cincinnati outgained Miami 538-358). It was the first victory for Miami over the Bearcats since 2005. Cincinnati had been used to beating up Miami OH like their little brother for the last 20 years. So, one would expect that trend to start over again.
Last week, Cincinnati had their way with the Pittsburgh Panthers for almost the entire game, carrying a 27-6 lead towards the end of the 3 quarter. To Pitt’s credit, they reeled off 22 unanswered points to snatch the victory. However if you dig into the game, you’ll see that the Bearcats put up 449 yards of offense against a tough Pitt defense. On the ground, workhorse Corey Kiner ran for 149 yards and 7.5 yards per carry. Furthermore, Northwestern ran the ball against Miami for 4.8 yards per carry – indicative of the fact that the Redhawks defense will not be as tough as the Pittsburgh defense was. As a result, it’s not difficult to envision a balanced offensive attack with Cincinnati QB Sorsby following up on his big day against Pitt (3 TD passes) complemented by Kiner gashing the Redhawk defense on the ground. It’s safe to say that Cinci will find a way to light up the scoreboard for 30 points. There’s just no way that Miami (OH) anemic offense can keep up with that. In the meantime, they might be caught looking ahead as they travel to Notre Dame next week. Punchline here is that Cincinnati should have beaten Pitt last week and Miami (OH) is not nearly as good as the Panthers. I expect a must win effort from the Bearcats against their weaker opponent. Laying the 2.5 on the Cats.
PURDUE +12 notre dame
Wow…talk about a setup. Purdue had the week off and enjoyed watching ND choke the bone against NIU last Saturday. Now Riley Leonard has to go into a hostile environment and somehow right the Irish offense against a spirited home Boilermaker squad. I also think the pressure is on Marcus Freeman to come out somehow with a “W”, so one would expect that minimizing mistakes and trying to keep control of the game would be paramount. That means that the Notre Dame offense most likely will be very very conservative. When you’re giving 12 points on the road to a team that pitched a shutout last week – being conservative is no way to cover the spread. True, Purdue hasn’t beaten the Irish since 2007, but you gotta believe this game has got them fired up.
Now there’s nothing we can take away from the Boilermaker beat down of Indiana State, other than the fact that their QB Hudson Card was unbelievable in the game, going 24-for-25 for 273 yards and 4 TDs. Now I don’t care who you are playing against, when you complete 96% of your throws that means you have to get the ball there and you aren’t missing. Overall Purdue put up Madden numbers on the Sycamores – 583 yards of offense and toting the rock for 8.0 yards per carry. Of course it’s foolish to think that the will repeat this against the Irish, however the Sycamores did do a respectable job in their other game, holding Eastern Illinois to 2.9 yards per carry which is about the same as Illinois did when they played Eastern Illinois. I know all of this may sound confusing, but the point is that Purdue has a decent and balanced offense and they will find a way to score points against Notre Dame. It’s not out of the question that they will find a way to score 17 points, which means that ND will have to find a way, on the back of Riley Leonard, to put up 30 points. Had they not thrown 2 interceptions, it’s likely that Texas A&M would have scored at least 20 points on ND.
Riley Leonard already has had 2 bad games against 2 good, but not great, teams. Purdue is a legit top 40 squad. They are playing at home. The Irish do not have the big play capability with Leonard throwing the ball at the cheerleaders. He’s playing more like Charles Nelson Reilly than he is the big transfer that the Irish were banking on. There is a lot of screaming from the ND faithful to bench Leonard in favor of Steve Angeli which would certainly give him happy feet and patting the football in the pocket. Purdue is going to stack the box and make ND throw the ball and last year the Boilermakers were pretty good at getting after the quarterback. Notre Dame is going to win this game, because it would be fatal if they don’t – but the pressure to win will be so great, they will tortoise shell in the second half and those 12 points are gonna loom large. The bye week for Purdue is going to be huge because they will be raring to go. They have a ton of depth at receiver and if Card has a decent game, the chains will be moving through the air. Back door wide open and if ND is up by 17, they will let Purdue eat clock and score in the 4Q. Loving the points here and riding the Boilermakers.
Tulane +13.5 OKLAHOMA
Spencer Rattler, Caleb Williams, Dillon Gabriel, Lincoln Riley. Wish you were here. Will Venables…okay, you can play defense but your offense SUCKS! The Sooner Schooner isn’t rolling much these days and maybe it has a flat tire…you wouldn’t notice because the Oklahoma offense can’t find the end zone with a Google map. Sooner QB Jackson Arnold can’t throw. He threw 7 passes last week of more than 20 yards and completed only one of them.
Now the Green Wave comes into Norman with something to prove. They lost to K State last week but really outplayed them and outgained them by 100 yards on offense. They had two turnovers that killed them and the Wildcats winning touchdown was a silly 60 yard scoop and score fumble recovery. Despite the adversity, Tulane went down the field at the end and had a bogus offensive interference call go against them and wipe out what would have been the tying or winning TD with 17 seconds left in the game Tulane QB Darian Mensah is too legit to quit. He went 19/29 last week against K State for 342 yards (that’s 11.8 yards per completion). So far this season Mensah has completed over 70% of his passes to go along with four touchdowns, an average gain of 13.3 yards per pass attempt. They also did well on the ground against the proud Wildcat defense – workhorse Makhi Hughes had 128 yards rushing and 6.1 yards per carry. The eyeball test says Tulane was the better team and their receivers were getting WIDE open, especially star receiver Mario Williams. The nine penalties for 80 yards really hurt them, especially that last one!
On the other hand, Oklahoma’s offense did NOTHING….NOTHING against Houston Cougar High School. In order to cover 13.5 points against an offense 29.5 points per game means you need to be able to score points. They only scored 16 points against Houston. Oklahoma has been constantly in 3 and long because Jackson Arnold isn’t accurate. They also have not found a way to get good yards on the ground on first down. I suspect the Sooner offensive line just isn’t very good this season. They are trying to be Oregon and go fast…all they do is fart and shit their pants. Last week against Houston, the Sooner offense did not score at all in the second half and punted 8 times….8!
Now the big flag for this game. Oklahoma opens their historic SEC game vs Tennessee next week. This lookahead game will spook them big time and Tulane is going to be like a sharp rock in their shoe. This game is too many points to lay against a team looking for something to prove. Taking the road dog Green Wave and those 13.5 points.
SOUTHERN MISS +11.5 south florida
I almost never ever ever get behind Southern Siss. Believe it or not, I spent a month in Hattiersburg and hated it a lot less than I thought I would. I ate catfish like every day. Anyway, the Golden Eagles were trash last year, going 3-9 and giving up 36 points per game. If you look at all the power ratings, the point spread looks to be about right. So why back a bad team against a South Florida team that gave mighty Bama a difficult time? You have to peel back the onion a little.
The South Florida Bulls opened their season with a total beatdown for Bethune Cookman. Big deal. Bethune Cookman did worse against the Mercer Bears in week 2 than they did against South Florida in week 1. So throw that game out. In week #2 everyone was all excited because at the end of the 3 quarter against the Crimson Tide, South Florida was only losing by the score of 14-13. The thing that no one talks about is that Bama fumbled and lost the ball 3 times against the Bulls. Assign 4 points to each lost fumble, and you now have an estimated final score of 54 – 16. Not quite the toe to toe look that Vegas seems to be selling with this point spread.
While I’m at it, what I really hate about South Florida is that their QB play is terrible. Byrum Brown is a run first QB. Even with the Bethune Cookman game padding his stats, he is only completing 51% of his passes averaging only 4.6 yards per pass with zero touchdowns…that’s right…zero touchdowns against Bethune Cookman. So when South Florida is in the Red Zone, don’t worry about defending their receivers because he can’t hit them. So far he has been unable to consistently connect on deep passes. Against Bama, it is scary about how bad he was. He was 15/35 for 103 yards for 2.9 yards per attempt. Yeesh. They were just 2-for-18 on third-down conversions. The Bulls have lost 3 straight road games. They really aren’t that good. Rivalry games on the road can be tough and USM is an old rival but they have not played since 2004.
Okay…rant over. Why do I like Southern Miss at home with the 11.5 points? They got destroyed by Kentucky in week 1. Yup…31-0 and it was as bad as it sounds. No worries, South Florida isn’t anywhere close to be as good Kentucky. Throw that game out. Last week against SE Louisiana, the Southern Miss offense showed some real spark. In their 35-10 win, Southern Miss' offense put up 360 yards, with 238 yards coming through the air. According to their coach, “We’ve got a big game. It’s one of the biggest games that’s been played in this stadium in a long, long time.” On the other hand, South Florida has Miami next week. Which team do you think USF has their eye on? They will certainly be looking to get a lead and run the clock out. Get the dub. This is a textbook let down game for USF sandwiched between Alabama and Miami.
USM QB Tate Rodemaker, was am old QB commit to USF, who transferred from FSU. He’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. At the end of the day…the Eagles are home. USF played gassed in the 4 quarter last week. Back door wide open for the home dog cover. Go Eagles.
BAYLOR -13.5 air force
The Baylor Mike Bears were a sad team last season, going 3-9 for the year. After an opening week embarrassing loss to Texas State, they never really recovered. This year, the Bears came out of the gate much better, particularly on defense. In their week 1 body bag game, they clouted hapless Tarleton State by the score of 45-3. They were actually more impressive in their week 2 loss to 11 ranked Utah, holding them scoreless in the 2 half and holding their powerful offense to under 300 yards. Baylor is a run heavy team, preferring to keep the ball on the ground on 63% of their offensive plays. There is no secret on what the Air Force Falcons will do either….don’t expect an air show this weekend.
Obviously being at home will be what helps Baylor cover this large spread. But the real reason why Baylor is going to win this game going away is that the Air Force offense is horrible. When you run the triple option, the QB has to be a master of prestidigitation, and confusing the defense as to where the ball is actually going is paramount. For this year’s version of the Falcons, their quarterback only seems to be confusing himself. Air Force opened the season against FCS school Merrimack which is only a couple of years removed from being a Division 2 school from a small school in Massachusetts. Remember the battle between the Merrimack and the Monitor in your American history class…well never mind all that. Air Force ran the ball against Merrimack 55 times and threw the ball only 14 times in the 21-6 victory. If it weren’t for Merrimack’s 3 fumbles lost, they might have even defeated the Falcons. So what was the problem? The Falcons had 16 players make their first start. What was preposterous is that Air Force was only able to gain 3.0 yards per carry against this squad of walk-ons. They essentially had a JV squad also. This week, Air Force goes on the road against Baylor. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose…that’s what happens.
Proving that week 1 was no fluke, Air Force stayed home against San Jose State, and lost by the score of 17-7. They were 3-of-16 on third-down conversions. They had just two drives in the game with more than one first down. The only points for Air Force came on a 14-yard drive, set up by an interception and even that short drive required a fourth-down conversion. The Falcons had just two plays that went longer than 8 yards. When you score only 7 points, there’s not much more you need to see about their offense…but just for shits and giggles – Air Force tried to pass the ball 20 times but only completed 7 passes for 54 yards and 2 interceptions. In other words, their QB, Busha, can’t throw and when he does throw, he misses. What was worse was that Busha can’t run either. One of the key components of the option is for the QB to be a premier running back. Busha ran the ball against the Spartans 8 times for 16 yards. The whole team averaged only 3.1 yards per carry. The longest run of the day for Air Force was just 13 yards. Two of the Air Force running backs are injured and won’t be able to play. If you can’t run the ball and you can’t pass the ball, you’re not going to score points on the road against a defense that held high powered Utah to only 23 points. The Bears defense is much more athletic than either team that Air Force faced already. It’s hard to imagine that the Falcons will score more than 10 points in this game against Baylor. Can Baylor score 24? Sure they can.
Baylor and SJSU are rated about the same, but Baylor is in Waco this week. Fans are encouraged to wear black in the stadium in a promotion called 'Mission Black Ops' and the Bears will wear their new anthracite jerseys in the game. The Bears QB is legit. He is a transfer from Toledo and he passed for over 2,000 yards and ran for over 500 yards in all of his last three seasons for the Rockets. They will score some points. Their offensive line is determined to do better than they did against the Utes. Their top running back, Bryson Washington, will be back in the lineup.
The Baylor defense is going to crowd the box and grind the Falcon ground game to a halt, which will force the Air Force throw by braille quarterback to do what he doesn’t want to do – throw the ball…on the road. The Falcon ineptitude on offense will be glaring this week. This could be one of the worst Air Force teams in a decade and before the public gets wind of it, Baylor will give them a big spanking. I don’t often like laying 13.5 points against a service academy team that likes to run the ball and eat clock, but if Air Force isn’t making first downs, they won’t be holding the ball very long. Going with the Bears.
That's very kind of you to day...I need to do better than 3-3. The Bearcats killed me last week with the late fade against Pitt.
Byu -8.5 WYOMING
This is likely the best bet on the board. The only positive thing one can say about Wyoming in this game is that the Cowboys are playing at home. Other than that, they are a complete waste of sperm. Their opening game 48-7 loss to Arizona State really tells the story about how poor their offense is, especially considering the fact that ASU has given up 25.5 points per game in their other two contests. It gets even more comical, the Cowboys got home to face the FCS Idaho Vandals. With a backup quarterback, Idaho defeated Wyoming 17-13. So far, the Cowboys have only scored 20 total points in two games. They rank 133rd out of 134 teams in the FBS for total offense. Why is this happening? Wyoming QB Evan Svoboda ranks 133rd out of 142 FBS quarterbacks. His play has been simply terrible. He has completed only 41% of his passes and is averaging only 4.3 yards per attempt. He’s already thrown 2 interceptions and has been sacked 7 times. And guess what, he hasn’t even played against a good defense yet. Yup…this week the coffee avoiding Cougars will be bringing their polygamous selves into Laramie to round up the Cowboys. Want some straight dope? In their 18-15 victory over SMU, the Cougars shut down the undefeated Mustangs who had previously put up 44.5 points per game in their prior 2 games. SMU was unable to score a touchdown in that game. More impressive was how BYU held SMU to only 3.3 yards per carry. This is especially significant because Wyoming has struggled running the ball also. That’s right, they can’t pass and they also can’t run. In their first two games, Wyoming has averaged only 92 yards per game on the ground for 2.5 yards per carry. That stinks. To make things worse for the Cowboys, BYU is ranked 10 in the country in Red Zone defense. Their opponents have made 6 trips to the Red Zone and have come away with only 1 TD and 2 field goals. No opponent has thrown a TD pass against BYU yet.
BYU had little trouble on offense against Southern Illinois, lighting them up for over 500 yards of offense. They don’t need to be efficient against Wyoming, as the Cowboys will likely punt the ball a million times and the Cougars should have nice field position throughout the contest. If Wyoming is lucky enough to score 10 points, BYU only needs 20 to cover. BYU QB Retzlaff has been under the microscope lately and he’ll need to perform to keep his job. One should expect that he will have at least 2 TD throws. Retzlaff has the arm talent to make all the necessary throws. And he’s a good athlete. Wyoming ranks 86th in total yards allowed and 115th in scoring defense. Easy peasy.
One of the Wyoming game day traditions is called, “Breakfast at the Buck.” A local favorite, this tradition includes Bloody Marys and mimosas at the Buckhorn Bar in the downtown Laramie starting at 8 a.m. on game days. They are going to need it. Wyoming’s uniform colors are yellow and brown, which is appropriate for this team’s offense since they throw like piss and run like poop. Laying the wood on the road favorite BYU.
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