I AM HUGE (3-2 YTD 60%) WEEK 3 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Not one of my picks but I'm skeptical of Florida's offense and actually impressed with LSU's defense, so going into Death Valley at night will not be easy.  If I had to play it, I'd either take the under 46.5 or take LSU on the money line.

appalachian state -1.5 SOUTHERN MISS

Let’s not beat around the magnolia bush — Southern Miss is about to get curb-stomped like a moonshine jug at a frat party.  Appalachian State, the backwoods buzzsaw from Boone, NC, is rolling into Hattiesburg with more horsepower than a herd of caffeinated John Deeres. Meanwhile, Southern Siss is clinging to moral victories like your drunk uncle clings to a karaoke mic at a wedding.

App State gashed Charlotte for 586 yards like a buttered chainsaw through a biscuit.   In contrast, mighty Bill “would you like some candy little girl?”  Belichick and UNC could only muster 303 yards against the same squad. That’s not a typo…App State moved the ball twice as much as Coach “Stranger Danger” Bill’s offense.

“But they only scored 20 against Lindenwood,” the doubters chirp. Wrong angle, my friend. They racked up 503 yards in that game too and held Lindenwood to a stunning 0.0 yards per carry — aka, the football equivalent of putting their offense in solitary confinement. Appy’s Rashod Dubinion rushed for 194 yards on 25 carries (7.8 yards per carry), meaning that they can control the game on the ground any time they want.   If not for four turnovers — a complete fluke — App State would’ve hung 40+ on the Lions and there would be no doubt as to which team is better this Saturday.

Southern Siss fans are walking around with their chests puffed out like Ric Flair going WOOOO!, thanks to “only losing” to Mississippi State. But let’s be real: State had 14 penalties and was too busy ringing cowbells to be concerned about running up the score on their little brother from Purvis, MS.  Did you know there used to be a refinery there?  And yes, Southern Siss beat Jackson State… but it was less of a win and more of a gift basket. Jackson State QB tossed two interceptions like they were beads at Mardi Gras. Without those, that game might’ve gone down to the wire — and I don’t trust Southern Siss to win anything that comes down to the wire.  They can’t run the ball.    According to the Massey Composite, App State is ranked 89th, while Southern Miss is buried down at 127th — aka, below several schools that have goats as mascots and part-time professors who look like Colonel Sanders and an enlarged medulla oblongata.

App State's defense?   #1 in the country in third-quarter points allowed (0.0) — indicating an experienced coaching staff making excellent halftime adjustments -  so if Southern Siss doesn’t jump out to a lead early, they’re gonna spend the second half like a toddler at a spelling bee: confused, scared, and probably sissing their diapers.  The ‘Neers are also converting 100% in the red zone, which I would expect they will be visiting often on Saturday night. 

The bottom line here is Appalachian State is the better team, playing smarter, faster, and with a whole lot more banjo-driven bravado.   The 1.5 point spread is not meaningful.  The better team – The Mountaineers – will win the game outright and cover. 

@iamhuge

 I know huh. Im with u on this one

I see the Badgers actually having some success moving the ball and making a fair number of plays defensively. 

Seeing Syracuse mop the floor with Colgate makes my Delaware pick a little shakey....UCONN Shut down the Orange offense but Colgate could not.....but damn the torpedoes!

duke +3 TULANE

Remember that scene in Trading Places when Winthorpe is throttling Valentine, and Eddie Murphy's yelling, “It was the Dukes! It was the Dukes!” Well, this Saturday night in the Big Easy, it IS the Dukes. The Blue Devils are storming into Yulman Stadium like “Macho Man” Randy Savage off the top rope—and Tulane is about to get elbow-dropped into next week. DIG IT.  It’s MensahMania, Brother

Let’s break it down like Mean Gene.  In Week 1, Duke laid a 45-17 smackdown on Elon, racking up 548 yards of total offense, and that’s with a red zone fumble. Mensah? 80% completion rate, practically roasting marshmallows over Elon’s secondary.  Now, if you're thinking “big deal, it’s Elon,” consider this: Elon followed that up by absolutely murdering Davidson, 55-7, holding them to 158 yards and 10 first downs. That means Duke didn’t just beat a cupcake.

Then came the matchup with Big Ten bully Illinois. Scoreboard said 45-19 Illinois, but that’s faker than Ric Flair's retirement speeches. Duke outgained Illinois 438-419 and averaged nearly 7 yards per play. The problem? Five fumbles. FIVE! If fumbles were steel chairs, Duke was handing them out like Oprah. “You get a turnover! You get a turnover!”  But don’t let that cloud the truth: Mensah threw for 389 yards and 3 TDs against a Top-15 defense.  Unless you’ve been sleeping under a rock, the Rock Says…if you Smell what Mensah is cooking…he’s a Tulane transfer.  He knows Tulane's defensive schemes, hand signals, locker room playlist, and probably still has the WiFi password.  Mensah torched Illinois. He’s averaging 361.5 yards per game, second in the nation. He’s surrounded by WRs like a Four Horsemen reunion—Barkate (205 yds), Hagans (87 yds), Anthony (2 TDs)—and he’s protected by a line that’s only allowed 2 sacks in two games.

Meanwhile, Tulane’s pass defense let South Alabama go for 231 yards at 9.6 yards per attempt, including a 152-yard explosion from one guy. If Duke receivers get that kind of cushion, Mensah’s going to need Tommy John surgery by the third quarter from slinging so many deep balls.

Tulane’s sitting pretty at 2-0, but that record has more padding than Yokozuna's ring attire. Against South Alabama, they gave up more yards (451 to 409), more yards per play (6.5 to 5.6), and won by 2 points only because the Jags fumbled twice in crunch time.  Tulane’s turnover margin this season? +6.  You know what that tells us?  Turnover margin is like the Million Dollar Man’s laugh—unreliable and probably paid off. You can’t bank on it week after week. Tulane is #2 in the country in turnover luck, and that bubble is about to pop faster than Mr. Perfect’s gum.  Look, Illinois dropped 45 on Duke, sure. But the Blue Devils weren’t just giving them short fields—the 5 turnovers was essentially a traffic cop to their own end zone.  That is fixable and won’t happen again.  Despite that, Duke’s defense still:

• Held Illinois to 3.3 Yards per carry
• Racked up 14 tackles for loss
• Has the nation's #1 sack leader, Vincent Anthony Jr. (4.0)

Let’s get serious. Duke is the better team, with the better QB, and they're getting 3 points.  They’ve outgained opponents in both games. Their defense creates chaos up front. They’re due for turnover regression in a big way. Tulane’s skating by on luck and nostalgia. The Green Wave is last year’s Cinderella, and the clock just struck “Mensah o’clock.”  Tulane’s cute. But Duke is going to body slam them through the Superdome, even if the game isn’t being played there.  TAKING DUKE +3. IT’S THE DUKES.

Badger defense looks decent but offense is gonna struggle today. 

HUUUUGGGGEEEE 

Neither Bama or Wisky can run the ball but also neither defense can cover receivers 

Bucky the Badger = D E D

Badgers made it interesting at the end but flopped on the back door cover.  0-1 on the week. 

Hens looking gooooooooooooooood  up 20-10

@iamhuge

 I'm on Duke myself.  I hope you're right!  GL today!  

Delaware got SCREWED on a horrible defensive holding call.

How about those Blue Hens!  Win the game outright in OT...1-1 on the week.

App state dominating but 3 turnovers in one half?  Clean it up!

App State...3 turnovers screws the pooch  1-2 on the week

Vandy is legit...smoked the cocks at home....2-2 on the week

Duke...down by 10, drives into the red zone and kicks a field goal instead of going for the TD....noooooooooooooooooooo!

Duke misses the onside kick...2-3 on the week 5-5 YTD ATS (50%)....good luck to all