FL St. vs LSU

Would love to hear any thoughts or insite on this game. At first glace this was a stay away game, but the more I look at it the more I like LSU to control this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 

LSU has the athletes... out-recruited FSU despite the Orgeron madhouse. To me, LSU's overall success will come down to how well and how quickly they can establish the QB position.

Norvell has consistency on his side and finished 2021 much stronger than they started. 0-4 start, 5-3 finish with losses to Clemson, Florida, and a ranked NC State. Norvell also raided the transfer portal this past year bringing in a lot of veteran pieces on the offensive side of the ball.

Also important nuggets: FSU plays in "Week 0" which will give them a little time to work out kinks but also gives LSU some film. LSU is the home team but the game is in New Orleans which isn't a terrible drive from Tallahassee. 

FSU plays duquense week 1 not sure Norvell gunna give away all his secrets in that one lol .. kinda feels like LSU are the ones who could use a tune up game this year .. 

I got no plans to play this one but I did like the direction Noles took after the first few games that had a few disasters .. we can tell the run game is pretty solid, the best D's they faced made them struggle Clem and NC State but I'm not convinced LSU will be that strong right away ..... not sure what happened vs wake either, safe to say that coulda done alot better in that game Wake's run D was terrible .. Noles do lose Corbin but he's not irreplaceable, backups did fine and its pretty dynamic rush O having Travis at QB .. his passing wasn't bad either very few picks after the ND game .. they get a proven stud in Micah Pittman from Oregon and Johnny Wilson from ASU who still has something to prove w his high recruiting ranking .. Easy to be down on FSU after how they started LY but note that Travis got hurt in a few games, everyone remembers the ND game w Milton coming in for a few big plays but Milt was really the QB in all their dud games J-Ville, Wake, NC.State even loss vs Vill were all him w Travis out .. the OL giving up 10+% sacks is not good unsure if Travis scrambling invites that trouble .. def a few things on offense to like and a few more that at least have a chance to be better ..

Unsure about their D but it at least looks well recruited and just overall pretty good yds/carry and held teams to 58% passing 25-14 ..  8% sack rate ranks them 40th  ..  D stats don't have too much to snarl at, from a high level view anyway and some things to build on for this year ..  

I really haven't looked over LSU .. need to do that but also just gotta see them play, what's clicking .. wouldn't surprise me if things aren't all that smooth out of the gate .. I might put some fun money on this one being the only game of the day .. if betting now it would be FSU + the points .. 

@Bridge1

Agreed, LSU a tough team to handicap. New coaches and schemes all around and plenty of roster turnover. Do we even know who QB1 is yet?

For those reasons, this game is probably a pass for me.

@GamblinDAWG

 I watched the spring games for both LSU and FSU on line.  Overall, the FSU team was much more focused and the whole ambiance was one of positivity, esp from Norvell and the other coaches. Jordan Travis, QB, looks to be much improved.  Meanwhile, the LSU team seemed to be uneasy, esp their OL which was getting whipped consistently by the LSU DL which had several starters returning.  One should cap a game based only on the spring games but it seemed obvious to me that Norvell has his team on schedule while Kelly is still learning about his team including rotating 4 QB prospects through the rotation.

Brian kelly will be opening the season against the same opponent two years in a row but coaching different schools.. that's weird

I would lean LSU from first impulse without knowing enough about either team so far. LSU will be better coached than they have been in awhile, Kelly with some talent will be much more breathing room for his system to work. Just never know how much it will help in the very first game. I can't bet on FSU though, just can't be trusted until they prove anything. 

@combato

@Aldan52

 I lean taking the FG here in what I would expect to be a low scoring game. We know BK does not fair too well in bigger games that the environment isn't highly favorable for him, couple that with his first game at a program like LSU where expectations are high then I have trouble backing him without a track record with the program yet. There will be some struggles at QB if not many, as this was a position group last season without a solid direction and a massive increase in production was needed to be successful. I don't know a ton about FSU other than Norvell really needs to get it going this season and he surely realizes that, so taking the points would be more of a fade on LSU but the under should be a play. 

Excellent analysis!  I agree it’s a stay away game with advantages on each side.  It could go either way, but gun to head, kelly will want to start his tenure off right in front of a superfine crowd that will be 80% LSU partisan…

Excellent analysis!  Florida State has a chip on its shoulders and they could pull the upset.   Good luck this season! 

33-17 LSU, norvell outclassed here 

@Blakefish20

Elaborate... everyone knows they have better talent all across the field, game is in New Orleans, etc. and yet the spread is only -3 against what has been a very average at best FSU. 

If kelly only managed a 3 point win at FSU with a higher ranked irish team than why is it up to 3? is the question.even though it's not at FSU this year

This LSU roster is much better than the ranked ND team he played against them with last year.. If LSU can't cover this line then it means they are bad, and that would be a very bad sign even though it's early for Kelly. Everyone has always said what could he do with a much more talented team as a coach, well now he's got one so its time for him to prove something combining his x's and o's ability with the talent. If LSU loses this game it's going to be because their defense stinks quite honestly. 

@jwheels86

That's kinda my point... in my sports betting life, any time a line seems "too easy" there's a reason for it. New schemes all around, a new QB, lost their 2 best secondary players to the transfer portal. I agree LSU has recruited more talented players, so why isn't the line closer to 10?

LSU 

THERE IS NO (SMART) PLAY ON LSU IN THIS GAME

   $  at a true neutral site - line should be at P or so .... might wanna give LSU 1-2 pts (?) for crowd edge here

LSU on the other hand, is starting over NOW - not only on O & D, but a totally different coaching style and philosophy.  Also this will be their opener, with FCS then Miss St on deck - FSU has the perfect SPOT here - opening with a scrimmage on 8/27 (Duquesne) - then a bye before Louisville on 9/17. LSU (might) just come out and play great - they could also look like crap.  FSU will be improved, but not necessarily ready for prime time themselves - and should struggle to move the ball regardless.

If you must - I would stay away from the side here - take FSU on the ML small if you like 'em ..... or the UNDER (1H under maybe better).  FSU 1H not a bad idea - I can see an ugly close game, FSU up early - LSU might be an in-game/2H play if QB/offense looks OK.    

wtf - insert

FSU is likely better than we think ....  Norvell stepped into a terrible spot in 2020, 2021 was essentially year 1.  They had a serious hangover after a tough Irish loss (QB hurt) - but rebounded strong facing a tough 7 game finish (at face value not a murderers row, but opponents were playing well at the time). Beat UNC and BC on the road, almost beat Clemson (up 4Q). Also beat Miami and Syracuse - lost to NCST after Clemson (QB hurt) and then at Fla by 4 - Gators reeling but a tough spot.    

FSU is a dumpster fire and will remain a dumpster fire. Don’t overthink this one. 

This game is a great example of how playing the stock market and betting football are so similar. What will happen if brian kelly starts coaching at LSU?

Can you tell the future?

IMO If Fl. St. gets their run game going they win or cover. FD has them +3' - 115 i'm good with that. 

Remember the old system of fading the consensus pick on any Covers forum?  So far, I count 7 for LSU and 2 for Florida State.  

@Hurricane_Hank

 Agreed.  FSU hasn't shown anything to indicate this season wont be any different than the few previous.  The last couple seasons there has been a lot of hype around them, only to see them COMPLETELY shit the bed.  The have not recruited well either.