Dr. Strangelove Week 12

The Running Dogs (PRD's) were smoking hot yesterday going 13-5. Their best week yet. The "Triefecta Teams" (home running dogs w/better D) went 2-1. Nebraska was the first triefecta team to lose this year. They are now 10-1 on the season. Nebraska was also the only "actual running dog" that didn't win/cover, so a little unfortunate there. I tried lall week to find a +3, but it never showed up in my books or else the Trifecta's would have remained undefeated. But it's still pretty good when your lone loss with these teams was by just a half a point. 

The Running Dogs YTD: 76-38 (66.67%)

Week 5: 10-7
Week 6: 12-6
Week 7: 13-6

Week # 8: 12-6

Week # 9: 4-4 (the first losing week since 2021)

Week # 10: 12-4

Week # 11: 13-5

Home Team: 3-3 (21-9 YTD)
Away Team: 10-2 (55-29 YTD)
With Better D: 8-1 (37-12 YTD)
With Better D at Home: 2-1 … (10-1 YTD)
7 points or more: 5-2 (DD were 2-2)….. 27-11 YTD (16-7 YTD)

Actual Running Dogs: 8-1 (50-8 YTD)

Nebraska 183 to 101 (L)

Sam Houston State 144 to 105 (W)

Navy 269 to 115 (W)

Miami 131 to 57 (W)

NMSU 220 to 167 (W)

ECU 79 to 21 (W)

Auburn 354 to 120 (W)

Cincinnati 204 to 139 (W)

SJSU 313 to 83 (W)

Not the ACTUAL RUNNING DOG:

YTD: 26-30 (46.43%)

Week # 5: 4-4
Week # 6: 3-5
Week # 7: 5-5
Week # 8: 2-5

Week # 9: 0-4

Week # 10: 7-3

Week # 11: 5-4

Predicting the ACTUAL RUNNING DOG: 9-9 (58-46 … 50.88%)

This week's Probable Running Dogs (PRD) comming up....

So awesome!  

Here are the Week 12 Running Dogs:

Sparty +4.5 (D)

Purdue +2

Miami, FL +2 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

Cincinnati +7 (better ypg D)

Tulsa +2.5 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

NCST +3 (better PPG D)

Tennessee +10 (H)

Utah +1 (D)

UCLA +6 (D)

Illinois +4

UCF +3.5

ODU +7 (D)

Nebraska +6

Oregon St +1.5 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

Syracuse +6.5 (D)

* Trifecta Team (PRD w/ better D at home)

Utah is now a pickem in some books and a -1 in a few others. If a team is a pickem I still consider them a Running Dog. 

Pitt -2.5

I making Pitt an official play because I orginially got them at +1.5. If Pitt was still a dog they would be considered a Trifecta Team. They are not only at home with a better D, they also play on Thursday night. 

Coastal Carolina +1.5 *

Alright, I just found Coastal Carolina at Heritage +1.5. UNCC is a Trifecta Team. * I realize this isn't widely avaliable and at -4.5 at most other books, but I'm still going to make them an official play at this number. 

Here are the Week 12 Running Dogs:

Sparty +4.5 (D)

Purdue +2

Miami, FL +2 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

Cincinnati +7 (better ypg D)

Tulsa +2.5 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

NCST +3 (better PPG D)

Tennessee +10 (H)

Utah +1 (D)

UCLA +6 (D)

Illinois +4

UCF +3.5

ODU +7 (D)

Nebraska +6

Oregon St +1.5 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

Syracuse +6.5 (D)

Charlotte +1.5 (H)(D) (Trifecta Team) *

Pitt -2.5....I guess you could consider the Panthers a "Running Favorite". If they were the dogs they would be considered a "Trifecta Team." Close enough for government work. I'm taking them.

@spottie2935

 Thanks buddy!

@DrStrangelove

 Love those trifecta dogs. Nebraska was a bad lose.. move on.. had a great week so can’t complain.  
 Let’s get more dogs this week Doc.  

SMOKING HOT IS RIGHT!! Nice angle man 

You might have a deadly combo with 'BOWL BUBBLE TEAMS' here....

ILLINOIS

ODU

NEBRASKA

SYRACUSE

Thank You for all you do!! Best of Luck this coming week.

@phancard

 It's my pleasure, BOL this week. 

Appreciate your thread homie 

@DrStrangelove

 Just seeing this system. Help needed.

Confirm for me what dictates a running dog. Is it an underdog that has a higher per game rushing average than the favorite throughout the season YTD?

Is the trifecta when THAT running dawg has a better yards per game average on defense throughout the year than the favorite?

What if this team is at home? Are you tracking that as well?

Thanks for your work here.

@DrStrangelove

 Disregard my post above. I figured it out by looking at this weeks pics. I am assuming a (D) by the pick means better defense as far as yards per game? And some say better scoring D meaning the obvious.

Great series Strange, followed you to fortune with Navy last week. 

Your Running Dogs threads are truly a treasure on here

ODU let me down big, but I already planned on going back to them this week so this just confirms it for me. 

Already had NCST circled and banged them at 3.5 so im glad to see it on your list. 

I know when you look at the raw numbers UTEP looks like the running dog in this spot. But a few other stats go into figuring the running dogs. Like for example, if you see one team who averages rushing for 200 ypg and they are the favorites, and the other team runs for 150 ypg and are the dogs. If you take it at face value, you would think the 150 ypg team has no value and isn't the running dog. But what if the favored team that averages 200 yards has played a schedule of teams who on average give up say 180 ypg rushing and 6 ypc. But the team that averages 150 ypg has played some tough defenses that give up an average of just 120 ypg and 4 ypc.? That alone puts a little different slant on the game, and that's not even counting the rushing defenses, which figures the same way. One team could give up 130 ypg rushing and the other 150. But the team that gives up 130 ypg plays in a passing conference who on average doesn't run the ball well (say each team rushes 140 ypg on average), while the team that gives 150 ypg plays in a very good rushing conference, with their foes average 180 ypg. The team that gives up 130 ypg holds their opponents to 10 ypg under their rushing average while the team that gives up 150 ypg holds their opponents to 30 ypg under their rushing average, making them the stronger rush defense despite what their raw numbers are telling us. I know it's as clear as mud, but that's what goes into figuring the running dogs.

By the way if you're wondering where this running dogs theory comes from, we aren't any great inventors of a new system on how to cap games. We got the running dogs theory from an article that came out about 15 years ago on how Probable Running Dogs (PRD) cover at a high percentage rate, and we pretty much made it ours. The article was from one of the best cappers in the country (can't recall the name). But I can tell you that Dr. Bob uses the same running dogs theory as part of his handicapping formula. In fact we used to joke around on Monday and try to predict how many of Dr. Bob's selections (especially the running dogs) line up with ours when he releases his plays. It was uncanny how spot on we were with him just about every week.

@DrStrangelove

 BOL this week DR 

@IGetMoney38

@Martelxo92

@Yanasaur

@westlake888

Thanks guys! 

@DrStrangelove

 I love the way this works and it appears to be effective. I’m going to tail this week. Been playing these games for 38 years now and you have a system that works with my main belief in picking winners. Who runs the ball and who stops the run. It is why the SEC is so dominant. They have big boys up front on both sides. This system kind of follows that thought process adding in value with getting points plus playing at home.

@DrStrangelove