There's a very simple stat I look at for the title game and it's average scoring margin.
Indiana has blown teams out like no other and ranks 1st in that stat. In the last 8 years, the team ranking 1st in that stat has won the title game 6 times, including each of the last 5 years, with plenty of blowouts in that span. Out of those 8 teams only one Alabama team had a higher avg scoring margin than what Indiana had this year, 29.1 vs 28.6. so only a half point. That year they won the chip 52-24.
The only teams that ranked top in this stat and didn't win the chip are the Burrow Chase Higgins Edwards-Helaire version of LSU who ranked 4th due simply to not having a great defense (Burrow set the TD record that year), and Penn St who was top in 2018 but Bama did win it and they ranked right behind them at 2 and were only separated by .2 of a point.
Miami has some nice players but I don't see think Beck is Burrow level or they have the same level of talent on offense. And unlike that LSU team Indiana does have a great defense.
I haven't had an overall winning regular season in college football in the last 5 years, 3 of of those years I had a profitable bowl season but the last 2 bowls weren't good for me either. I won't be betting college football at all any more except for the CFP games and certain minor bowl games where i see major late line moves (because they have been quite accurate and telling usually as regards who is ready or has surprise opt outs etc) There's just too much nonsense in college ball now, kids do a lot of dumb stuff in games that you don't see in pros, and the NIL and transfer portal has ruined the minor bowls mostly.
But I've picked the title game correctly the last 5 years in a row just by mostly looking at this one stat so I'm gonna keep using it until it stops working. Indiana is actually one of the few teams that plays like professionals and that's a credit to their excellent coach. It's been a long time since a team came out of nowhere like this and a long time since we didn't have all the same teams in the final four. It's just that type of year and hopefully the one good thing about NIL is this type of story can happen more often. Of course Miami also somewhat came out of nowhere but I don't think they would have spanked Ohio St and Oregon back to back like Indiana has. I actually expect another blowout for Indiana and if I was a bookie the line would be more like 9.5 or 10.
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