YTD 7-9 -0.05 units
4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units
1* 6-9 -4.05 units
Bowls 1-0 +4.0 units
I hit my CFB GOY last week with Arkansas State. The Wednesday play below was posted nine days ago and the line has moved drastically in my direction (as I predicted) but i still like the play.
Monday:
1* Utah State +2
Utah State had a good season under HC Bronco Mendenhall and the staff is intact and very few bowl defections are expected here. Washington State is in a perpetual mess and can't keep a HC and even idiotically forced one out a few years ago because he wouldn't get a Covid shot. Jimmy Rogers has escaped to Iowa State. The interim HC is the defensive coordinator and he's also following Rogers which is a terrible situation. The coaches have checked out and many players ar eyeing the portal. Utah State has a really good QB in Bryson Barnes who had an outstanding 18-4 ratio. Utah state lost by only one to Boise (Mountain West vamp) in its last game and took UNLV to OT. Utah state is 10-2 ATS!
Wednesday:
3* Hawaii +2 1/2
(This line has moved 4 1/2 points to Hawaii -2 since I first posted this play and for good reason as I see Hawaii pasting Cal).
1) Cal fired a great coach in Justin Wilcox who kept recruiting great QBs only to lose them to the portal as the school's cheapskate alumni refuse to pony up NIL money. They had Heisman winner Mendoza. With Wilcox fired, the whole team is looking at the portal and I see mass defections by game time.
2) Hawaii is playing a home game. The game is in Honolulu. Hawaii was 6-1 SU and ATS at home this season in a Mountain West conference that was pretty strong this year. Three weeks ago Hawaii put up 38 on an excellent San Diego State defense.
3) Cal can't run the ball at all: only 79 yards per game which is terrible
4) Hawaii QB Alejado completed 66% of his passes and backup is pretty good too.
5) Bizarro coaching situation: Interim Cal Coach Nick Rolovich was the Hawaii backup QB when Timmy Chang was the starter. Chang is now Hawaii's coach and the team has improved every year he's been there. Rolovich will likely be out the door after the bowl.
6) The Cal players that are there will likely be treating this as a Hawaiian Christmas vacation whereas Hawaii is at home.
7) Hawaii is hungry for this! This is Hawaii's first bowl game since 2020. This is a big deal for them as they oppose a team that is a mess.
8) When lines move violently in low profile bowl games, they are telling you something.
9) Other than my 4* game of the year, this is my only play of the season above a regular 1* play.
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