Might hedge for more in game but had to play something earlier today and make sure we don't get toooo ding'd up if for some reason we look back on this game saying the old line 'wellllll that's bowl season for ya' lol .. and I got to hedging pretty quick just seeing that most of the offensive roster is playing minus the QB .. lichtenberg at QB backup and coach says #3 will play doesn't sound that promising but you should also see all 5 starters on the OL, TE Joe Royer, fully stocked WR unit and looks like Evan Pryor was at least on the depth chart and he's their main break away dude .. The D does have a major issue in the secondary and .. appears to have .. key LB out as well as THE GODFATHER out on the DL .. however they have many LB's safeties and DE's on this team that will be in ..
The best line we got was +5.5 at B365 .. shoulda MURDERED that gem of a line .. most all others at 4.5 and I gobbled those up as well as favorable ML's .. the line has essentially moved 12 to 13 points depending on where you got it on opening day .. and feels like the market would swoon to a good navy team with horvath playing his last game .. led the comeback charge vs OU last year .. we know service academies are such a good playin in bowl games and we've gotten a nice preview of that with Army drop-kicking UCONN in thier game .. should also be noted that JAN 2nd is the first OFFICIAL day of the portal being opened and who the heck wants to play Navy today if you were considering jumping in the portal .. good number of guys on cincy did and expect quite a few outs .. but maaaan this line feels like a little bit of a psyop like omg better bet navy now it'll be 21-zip at halftime lol .. idk bout all dat .. I'd say this could conceivably go a good number of ways ..
However .. if Cincy does get something resembling decent QB play and has their guys actually show up motivated .. possible .. they might give us some sweats .. hence the sizable hedge .. can't get on a work of art bowl pick diamond gem like this Navy deal and get stuck losing 5 units lol .. best case is navy covers it all we're up 6.8 units .. worst case is cincy wins by 6 or more and we're down -1.44 units .. middle case Cincy wins by 1-4 and we're not pouting too much taking down 3.3 units on the exchange .. here's the bets were hedging on .. Oh man shoulda pounded that parlay for a full unit there huh?! lol .. GOOD LUCK!
NAVY +4.5 1.8/1.7 NAVY +5.5 .66/.6 NAVY ML .4/.63 NAVY -1 1.1/1.0
PARLAY: WASH -9, MINN, HOU, LTECH -7, NAVY .1/3.5
0
HEDGE
CINCINNATI ML +240 1.5/3.6
Might hedge for more in game but had to play something earlier today and make sure we don't get toooo ding'd up if for some reason we look back on this game saying the old line 'wellllll that's bowl season for ya' lol .. and I got to hedging pretty quick just seeing that most of the offensive roster is playing minus the QB .. lichtenberg at QB backup and coach says #3 will play doesn't sound that promising but you should also see all 5 starters on the OL, TE Joe Royer, fully stocked WR unit and looks like Evan Pryor was at least on the depth chart and he's their main break away dude .. The D does have a major issue in the secondary and .. appears to have .. key LB out as well as THE GODFATHER out on the DL .. however they have many LB's safeties and DE's on this team that will be in ..
The best line we got was +5.5 at B365 .. shoulda MURDERED that gem of a line .. most all others at 4.5 and I gobbled those up as well as favorable ML's .. the line has essentially moved 12 to 13 points depending on where you got it on opening day .. and feels like the market would swoon to a good navy team with horvath playing his last game .. led the comeback charge vs OU last year .. we know service academies are such a good playin in bowl games and we've gotten a nice preview of that with Army drop-kicking UCONN in thier game .. should also be noted that JAN 2nd is the first OFFICIAL day of the portal being opened and who the heck wants to play Navy today if you were considering jumping in the portal .. good number of guys on cincy did and expect quite a few outs .. but maaaan this line feels like a little bit of a psyop like omg better bet navy now it'll be 21-zip at halftime lol .. idk bout all dat .. I'd say this could conceivably go a good number of ways ..
However .. if Cincy does get something resembling decent QB play and has their guys actually show up motivated .. possible .. they might give us some sweats .. hence the sizable hedge .. can't get on a work of art bowl pick diamond gem like this Navy deal and get stuck losing 5 units lol .. best case is navy covers it all we're up 6.8 units .. worst case is cincy wins by 6 or more and we're down -1.44 units .. middle case Cincy wins by 1-4 and we're not pouting too much taking down 3.3 units on the exchange .. here's the bets were hedging on .. Oh man shoulda pounded that parlay for a full unit there huh?! lol .. GOOD LUCK!
NAVY +4.5 1.8/1.7 NAVY +5.5 .66/.6 NAVY ML .4/.63 NAVY -1 1.1/1.0
MIAMI / INDIANA ML 3.5/1.5 MIAMI / OREGON ML 1.9/1.5
OLE MISS / INDIANA -7.5 1.1/1 OLE MISS / OREGON -3.5 1.1/1
I have some Miami futures to protect so went ML there and spread with Ole Miss .. the thinking here is that we have one side with basically 2 playoff underdogs making their way to the semi finals .. the power rating will obvi adjust to a degree but they really won't get the credit for beating the teams they took down .. the odds and market will most certainly discount those wins .. on the other side we have 2 very very strong playoff favorites duking it out .. whoever emerges will likely show up in the natty as a bigger fav than they are now having taken credit for beating the other playoff fav .. thus the crux of the play is that, while today the lines appear to be fair, Indiana or Oregon emerging from that battle will ultimately be a bigger fav in the finals .. if one 'smokes' the other they will probably be a very significantly bigger fav than they are now .. its possible if Miami smokes Ole Miss and maybe Indy / Oregon just sorta eeeeeks out some kinda iffy lucky win that we could see Miami whose +2 vs Oregon +4.5 vs Indy close the gap to maybe a Pick'em and +3 respectively .. But I think if we get a couple honest competitive games we're lookin at either Miami or Ole Miss adding 2-3 points to their spread and adjusted ML when the lines come out .. and if not then markets prob kick it up from there esp if its Ole Miss eekin out a close one think we could see Indy -10 or more in that one pretty easy .. basically just getting ahead of the expected movement here.
I do think Miami has the best shot to pull the stunner with the very strong OL / DL play .. they'll match well with Indy or Oregon but gotta respect those two with I think far and away the best coaches in the game and what they can do extending drives or getting opp's offense off the field in those critical situations is way too much advantage to ignore .. keep in mind a good coach like Brohm schemed a brilliant plan to beat Miami at home and didn't take much luck to pull the win they were the best team by far .. Beck hasn't turned into a total TURDBURGER again after that gm but we also haven't seen him vs the best D's and coaches either .. but we know what happens if they can lol ..
1
HYPO NATTY
MIAMI / INDIANA ML 3.5/1.5 MIAMI / OREGON ML 1.9/1.5
OLE MISS / INDIANA -7.5 1.1/1 OLE MISS / OREGON -3.5 1.1/1
I have some Miami futures to protect so went ML there and spread with Ole Miss .. the thinking here is that we have one side with basically 2 playoff underdogs making their way to the semi finals .. the power rating will obvi adjust to a degree but they really won't get the credit for beating the teams they took down .. the odds and market will most certainly discount those wins .. on the other side we have 2 very very strong playoff favorites duking it out .. whoever emerges will likely show up in the natty as a bigger fav than they are now having taken credit for beating the other playoff fav .. thus the crux of the play is that, while today the lines appear to be fair, Indiana or Oregon emerging from that battle will ultimately be a bigger fav in the finals .. if one 'smokes' the other they will probably be a very significantly bigger fav than they are now .. its possible if Miami smokes Ole Miss and maybe Indy / Oregon just sorta eeeeeks out some kinda iffy lucky win that we could see Miami whose +2 vs Oregon +4.5 vs Indy close the gap to maybe a Pick'em and +3 respectively .. But I think if we get a couple honest competitive games we're lookin at either Miami or Ole Miss adding 2-3 points to their spread and adjusted ML when the lines come out .. and if not then markets prob kick it up from there esp if its Ole Miss eekin out a close one think we could see Indy -10 or more in that one pretty easy .. basically just getting ahead of the expected movement here.
I do think Miami has the best shot to pull the stunner with the very strong OL / DL play .. they'll match well with Indy or Oregon but gotta respect those two with I think far and away the best coaches in the game and what they can do extending drives or getting opp's offense off the field in those critical situations is way too much advantage to ignore .. keep in mind a good coach like Brohm schemed a brilliant plan to beat Miami at home and didn't take much luck to pull the win they were the best team by far .. Beck hasn't turned into a total TURDBURGER again after that gm but we also haven't seen him vs the best D's and coaches either .. but we know what happens if they can lol ..
Gunna roll with Psycho Cignetti and line is dropped down to 3's for normal odds at a couple places .. big picture they may not have the talent ratings but the dudes they have they know how to use em .. Indy found another very good WR just outta their dev program in Charlie Becker making their pass game extra nasty with the big 3 rec options .. there is some concern now with the DL after the one DE injured himself after the post-bama celebration .. sheesh .. that guy was a major dude for them .. surprisingly the DL didn't receive high remarks on PFF after THE GREAT BAMA BEATDOWN but can't argue with the end results and I expect we'll get some very good play outta the D here .. big key obvi is that Indy flat out beat Oregon in Eugene and wasn't a fluke ... Ducks needed a pick 6 and did tie it up late .. then got run over 20-10 Indy with the ball late it coulda been more .. now were in a neutral and I expect both teams are better than they were but man Hoosiers really have been a BIG RED MACHINE so far ..
Interesting move on the total it was down to 46.5 at one point .. big move to 49 and now 49.5 .. feels like most would look at these teams and say under for sure .. one thing to think about is how this might play out diff with more agressive playoff caliber play than it did in the first matchup .. also add an extra dude WR to Indy and still lotta weapons .. think we can count on both coaches throwing the perverbial kitchen sink at this game with plenty of rolling the dice on 4th down and seein only the best new play calls for the critical situations .. unlike last matchup featuring more of a chess matchup style this one might feel a little more desperate and Oregon having a little more success could easily lead to a higher total than we're used to in these defensive heavy playoffs .. just my thought here but I'm not tryin to bet against a late move like that when the market has prob been betting it the other way all week .. good luck!
0
SEMI FINAL
INDIANA -3 2.2/2 (ESPN)
Gunna roll with Psycho Cignetti and line is dropped down to 3's for normal odds at a couple places .. big picture they may not have the talent ratings but the dudes they have they know how to use em .. Indy found another very good WR just outta their dev program in Charlie Becker making their pass game extra nasty with the big 3 rec options .. there is some concern now with the DL after the one DE injured himself after the post-bama celebration .. sheesh .. that guy was a major dude for them .. surprisingly the DL didn't receive high remarks on PFF after THE GREAT BAMA BEATDOWN but can't argue with the end results and I expect we'll get some very good play outta the D here .. big key obvi is that Indy flat out beat Oregon in Eugene and wasn't a fluke ... Ducks needed a pick 6 and did tie it up late .. then got run over 20-10 Indy with the ball late it coulda been more .. now were in a neutral and I expect both teams are better than they were but man Hoosiers really have been a BIG RED MACHINE so far ..
Interesting move on the total it was down to 46.5 at one point .. big move to 49 and now 49.5 .. feels like most would look at these teams and say under for sure .. one thing to think about is how this might play out diff with more agressive playoff caliber play than it did in the first matchup .. also add an extra dude WR to Indy and still lotta weapons .. think we can count on both coaches throwing the perverbial kitchen sink at this game with plenty of rolling the dice on 4th down and seein only the best new play calls for the critical situations .. unlike last matchup featuring more of a chess matchup style this one might feel a little more desperate and Oregon having a little more success could easily lead to a higher total than we're used to in these defensive heavy playoffs .. just my thought here but I'm not tryin to bet against a late move like that when the market has prob been betting it the other way all week .. good luck!
Good bowl season and its NATTY TIME so get to have a little more fun than usual and snuck these + odds bangers in last night after the game at FAN .. I also have some considerably big MIAMI NATTY futures I didn't post .. hit one pre-ssn for 40-1 and took the entire playoff ladder on Miami the week before the playoffs were decided when it was still in the fold with MIAMI MAKE Q-FINALS 20-1, MAKE SEMIFINAL 50-1, MAKE NATTY 80-1, WIN NATTY 175-1 .. Couldn't drop a bomb on em but anyone bold to do that has FAN kicking themselves lol .. also hit Miami 25-1 when the playoffs were set .. all told I got I got 1.06 units on Miami to win 31.6 units lined up .. cash out is appro 7 units on those right now so 6 units net .. Obvi I'm playing a considerable amount of Indy ML now and feel emboldened to have these separate side wagers .. hopefully don't end up starring in the middle of some eastern European schizer video on those .. but you should know I'm a little further out there on the wagers because of the situation and not to mention extra fun bowl season here ..
Recall my expectation of 'whoever comes out of the indy / oreg semi final, the natty line for them should be more favorable' .. that's already happened to some degree the hypo line for Indy / Miami was -5.5 pre-kick so up a couple points past a full TD .. big move .. but note the spread/ML probability calc now for Indy at -310 indicates they are close to a 10 point fav .. the ML for Miami at +250 indicates they are about a 7 point dog .. essentially the Miami ML is just about where the spread is now and books making it very expensive to take Indy's ML ... and we can all understand why .. I don't think there's any chance we'll see a flat 7 out there and wouldn't surprise me if this line creeps up to 8.5 there's always some hopeful dog bettors out there but just looking at the situation Miami needing THE MOST AWESOME PLAYOFF GAME EVER to beat an Ole Miss team that I'd expect Indy to MURDER easy and I think folks will put 2+2 together eventually ... if the spread went to -9.5 pre-kick it would be a massive jump but not all that surprising .. if the line was indy -14.5 after the first miami / indy drive it also wouldn't surprise me ..
Makes me a little nervous when my little brother thinks we should 'bet the farm' on Indy -7.5 here lol told him have fun but don't 'FARM IT' .. books are well known for knowing what they're doing this year .. but trip thru Natty history does inform us that the best team tends to mop up the 2nd best team and I think what we have here is the best team by far vs a team that's very good but still sorta in the 2nd tier mix of teams with major dudes and abilities but also flawed and very beatable team .. Ole Miss figured out how to handle the pressure to the tune of 40% pressure rate and just 1 sack delivered .. Rebs only got 27% pressure but made the most of it with 4 sacks .. and Beck under pressure can become a MAJOR DUD making a couple very very boneheaded plays last game nearly throwing a pick for no reason and other junk .. Indy turned Moore back into his true FR form .. recall his first start with UCLA @Utah when he threw a pick 6 on the first play .. and looked the part the rest of the game ..
Rolling with PSYCHO CIGNETTI'S BIG RED MACHINE one more time .. GO HOOSIERS ..
3
BRIDGE BOWLS 1/5 UPDATE
BOWL SSN: 34-17-2, +15.9 UNITS
INDIANA -3 2.2/2 ... wooooah nellie ..
HYPO NATTY 1/5
MIAMI / INDIANA ML -230 3.5/1.5
ADD:
INDIANA -7.5 +103 4.7/4.8
Good bowl season and its NATTY TIME so get to have a little more fun than usual and snuck these + odds bangers in last night after the game at FAN .. I also have some considerably big MIAMI NATTY futures I didn't post .. hit one pre-ssn for 40-1 and took the entire playoff ladder on Miami the week before the playoffs were decided when it was still in the fold with MIAMI MAKE Q-FINALS 20-1, MAKE SEMIFINAL 50-1, MAKE NATTY 80-1, WIN NATTY 175-1 .. Couldn't drop a bomb on em but anyone bold to do that has FAN kicking themselves lol .. also hit Miami 25-1 when the playoffs were set .. all told I got I got 1.06 units on Miami to win 31.6 units lined up .. cash out is appro 7 units on those right now so 6 units net .. Obvi I'm playing a considerable amount of Indy ML now and feel emboldened to have these separate side wagers .. hopefully don't end up starring in the middle of some eastern European schizer video on those .. but you should know I'm a little further out there on the wagers because of the situation and not to mention extra fun bowl season here ..
Recall my expectation of 'whoever comes out of the indy / oreg semi final, the natty line for them should be more favorable' .. that's already happened to some degree the hypo line for Indy / Miami was -5.5 pre-kick so up a couple points past a full TD .. big move .. but note the spread/ML probability calc now for Indy at -310 indicates they are close to a 10 point fav .. the ML for Miami at +250 indicates they are about a 7 point dog .. essentially the Miami ML is just about where the spread is now and books making it very expensive to take Indy's ML ... and we can all understand why .. I don't think there's any chance we'll see a flat 7 out there and wouldn't surprise me if this line creeps up to 8.5 there's always some hopeful dog bettors out there but just looking at the situation Miami needing THE MOST AWESOME PLAYOFF GAME EVER to beat an Ole Miss team that I'd expect Indy to MURDER easy and I think folks will put 2+2 together eventually ... if the spread went to -9.5 pre-kick it would be a massive jump but not all that surprising .. if the line was indy -14.5 after the first miami / indy drive it also wouldn't surprise me ..
Makes me a little nervous when my little brother thinks we should 'bet the farm' on Indy -7.5 here lol told him have fun but don't 'FARM IT' .. books are well known for knowing what they're doing this year .. but trip thru Natty history does inform us that the best team tends to mop up the 2nd best team and I think what we have here is the best team by far vs a team that's very good but still sorta in the 2nd tier mix of teams with major dudes and abilities but also flawed and very beatable team .. Ole Miss figured out how to handle the pressure to the tune of 40% pressure rate and just 1 sack delivered .. Rebs only got 27% pressure but made the most of it with 4 sacks .. and Beck under pressure can become a MAJOR DUD making a couple very very boneheaded plays last game nearly throwing a pick for no reason and other junk .. Indy turned Moore back into his true FR form .. recall his first start with UCLA @Utah when he threw a pick 6 on the first play .. and looked the part the rest of the game ..
Rolling with PSYCHO CIGNETTI'S BIG RED MACHINE one more time .. GO HOOSIERS ..
Defensive MVP .. Big picture this is a huge crap shoot and think its a waste of money to take anyone with lower than average let-alone short odds .. always seems like the stars should shine but history .. like last year even .. tells us we often get a player who has the most tackles .. LY I had TJ Tui for some nice odds and Cody Simon for something too.. Simon had like 7 tackles vs TJ TUI's 2 huge sacks in the game and seemed like voters deferred to tackle stats and recalling how often they heard his name .. recall this voting is done in like 10 mins after the game .. my suggestions aim more for defensive backs guys that make picks .. not fool proof plan and you'd think a guy like Keelee Ringo w the game sealing pick 6 play for UGA vs Bama might have won it for him .. nope .. some other DB with good but not a highlight like that! .. but if you had Cine in that one you were smart to not tear up your big ticket .. aim for busy players who get key stops and are tackle machines .. lotta natty's the guy who wins it is just the guy who tackled the most and some sacks and other things got discounted .. like last year IMO .. DL is more difficult but we've seen some EPIC DL performances turn over a win .. make sure yer DL is very busy there's no reward for eating up double teams .. Star Power does seem to lean things one way or another but besides Bain and maybe Mesidor for Miami .. and maybe Ponds now for Indy I don't see 'star power' swaying the voters this year .. especially if Indy wins ..
Offensive MVP is soooo diff from defensive MVP .. QB's dominate .. and when they don't its blake corum with a huge day / QB with a very bad day .. unlikely to see that here .. we've seen Tua come in and with very pedestrian stats lead that comeback and take home the MVP .. nobody else really had a standout day .. we've seen Devonta Smith win the heisman and his 220 yds and 3 TD's upended Mac Jones' 465 yd 5 TD Zero pick day .. think we did because he won the heisman .. I'd say Toney prob could win it but the reality is he'd need a big day receiving and rushing and lotta highlights .. possible but not for 12-1 .. I'd normally say one of the indy RB's prob could win it but the reality is if neither has an ELECTRIC 200 YD night with 2-3 TD's I think the Heisman takes it down with mere pedestrian passing numbers .. they really like seeing the heisman on TV one last time ..
0
NATTY - MVP TALK ..
Defensive MVP .. Big picture this is a huge crap shoot and think its a waste of money to take anyone with lower than average let-alone short odds .. always seems like the stars should shine but history .. like last year even .. tells us we often get a player who has the most tackles .. LY I had TJ Tui for some nice odds and Cody Simon for something too.. Simon had like 7 tackles vs TJ TUI's 2 huge sacks in the game and seemed like voters deferred to tackle stats and recalling how often they heard his name .. recall this voting is done in like 10 mins after the game .. my suggestions aim more for defensive backs guys that make picks .. not fool proof plan and you'd think a guy like Keelee Ringo w the game sealing pick 6 play for UGA vs Bama might have won it for him .. nope .. some other DB with good but not a highlight like that! .. but if you had Cine in that one you were smart to not tear up your big ticket .. aim for busy players who get key stops and are tackle machines .. lotta natty's the guy who wins it is just the guy who tackled the most and some sacks and other things got discounted .. like last year IMO .. DL is more difficult but we've seen some EPIC DL performances turn over a win .. make sure yer DL is very busy there's no reward for eating up double teams .. Star Power does seem to lean things one way or another but besides Bain and maybe Mesidor for Miami .. and maybe Ponds now for Indy I don't see 'star power' swaying the voters this year .. especially if Indy wins ..
Offensive MVP is soooo diff from defensive MVP .. QB's dominate .. and when they don't its blake corum with a huge day / QB with a very bad day .. unlikely to see that here .. we've seen Tua come in and with very pedestrian stats lead that comeback and take home the MVP .. nobody else really had a standout day .. we've seen Devonta Smith win the heisman and his 220 yds and 3 TD's upended Mac Jones' 465 yd 5 TD Zero pick day .. think we did because he won the heisman .. I'd say Toney prob could win it but the reality is he'd need a big day receiving and rushing and lotta highlights .. possible but not for 12-1 .. I'd normally say one of the indy RB's prob could win it but the reality is if neither has an ELECTRIC 200 YD night with 2-3 TD's I think the Heisman takes it down with mere pedestrian passing numbers .. they really like seeing the heisman on TV one last time ..
You can get 25-1 at FAN but its very limited .. There's injury concerns but some of that got cleared up today by Psycho Ciggy saying he's available .. Indy has a clear deficiency at DE with that area getting hit with injuries this year and its the natty so Kamara is probably far and away their best DE playing .. I'd expect he see's all the action he can handle if he's not hurt .. that's one reason his odds are long .. the other is limited number of sacks this year .. and he's on the DL .. tougher to win .. but what we get is a certified starter on the Indy D and one that's had the most pressures on the team this year .. plenty of stops and tackles .. many times the D MVP just kinda comes down to the guy that's busiest on the field and this dude if healthy can get busy so gotta take a small stab ..
He's not my favorite choice seeing one more out there .. hoping FAN lifts the insanely low limits on this and gives me a chance to stab at it .. very limited market right now we might play one more on Indy ..
DEF MVP: ZECHARIAH POYSER (MIA) 50-1 .1/5.0
Again not everyone's idea of the favorite but what we get is a guy whose on the field alot and I lean to DB's as the guys that can make a play or two in the game and find themselves in the MVP winner circle .. Think DB's are just more likely to 'get a little lucky' in a particular game and land with a couple big plays that the voters like .. Poyser doesn't have a game yet that is MVP worthy hence the very long odds for a starting safety .. but just in my research it doesn't matter a whole lot .. basically an every down player 3rd on the tm in tackles .. I can take a shot where if MIA wins he just has the 'busy stats' that land him in the winner circle ..
DEV MVP: RAUL AGUIRRE 175-1 (MIA) .01/1.9 ..
Had to .. I mean yeah its no shot but if Miami pulls off a win we assume it'll be one of the MAJOR STARS on that side of the ball taking home the MVP .. but just being on the field gives our guy I think a decent chance to make a few big plays and walk off a winner ... Miami rotates ALOT of guys on D so there's some risk taking just the longest odds but for a few fun bucks and those odds sure no prob ..
0
DEF MVP: MIKAIL KAMARA (INDY) 24-1 .125/3.0
You can get 25-1 at FAN but its very limited .. There's injury concerns but some of that got cleared up today by Psycho Ciggy saying he's available .. Indy has a clear deficiency at DE with that area getting hit with injuries this year and its the natty so Kamara is probably far and away their best DE playing .. I'd expect he see's all the action he can handle if he's not hurt .. that's one reason his odds are long .. the other is limited number of sacks this year .. and he's on the DL .. tougher to win .. but what we get is a certified starter on the Indy D and one that's had the most pressures on the team this year .. plenty of stops and tackles .. many times the D MVP just kinda comes down to the guy that's busiest on the field and this dude if healthy can get busy so gotta take a small stab ..
He's not my favorite choice seeing one more out there .. hoping FAN lifts the insanely low limits on this and gives me a chance to stab at it .. very limited market right now we might play one more on Indy ..
DEF MVP: ZECHARIAH POYSER (MIA) 50-1 .1/5.0
Again not everyone's idea of the favorite but what we get is a guy whose on the field alot and I lean to DB's as the guys that can make a play or two in the game and find themselves in the MVP winner circle .. Think DB's are just more likely to 'get a little lucky' in a particular game and land with a couple big plays that the voters like .. Poyser doesn't have a game yet that is MVP worthy hence the very long odds for a starting safety .. but just in my research it doesn't matter a whole lot .. basically an every down player 3rd on the tm in tackles .. I can take a shot where if MIA wins he just has the 'busy stats' that land him in the winner circle ..
DEV MVP: RAUL AGUIRRE 175-1 (MIA) .01/1.9 ..
Had to .. I mean yeah its no shot but if Miami pulls off a win we assume it'll be one of the MAJOR STARS on that side of the ball taking home the MVP .. but just being on the field gives our guy I think a decent chance to make a few big plays and walk off a winner ... Miami rotates ALOT of guys on D so there's some risk taking just the longest odds but for a few fun bucks and those odds sure no prob ..
Last of the D .. Again you can get higher 22-1 at Fan but very low limits and just gunna take now with 18x at B365 .. what we get here is a safety starter and Indy's highest PFF rated defender .. Boykin can pressure effectively and has a number of pressures and some sacks this year and is a great tackler so he should keep the stat board busy on the basic stuff .. the main reason his odds are higher is he only has 2 picks and 3 pbu's this year .. great coverage grade though and and guy that can stay busy ... love to see him nab a critical INT and / or make a big play on a blitz .. if so I think just the nature of his stats being very busy in on plays .. and the way Miami plays with shorter passing and relying on yards after catch letting safeties maybe make more plays in the game .. just seems like longer odds dude's name could very easily get called end of the night .. in comparison to the other safety Amare Ferrell 10-1 think Boykin's odds seem like they should be similar .. another way to go is the other CB Jamari Sharpe 20-1 .. not much in the season stats would predict him being the MVP here but again think just find a starter that's not a dud and .. assuming indy wins .. could be his lucky night if he makes a big critical play ..
0
DEF MVP: DEVAN BOYKIN 18-1 (INDY) .15/2.9
Last of the D .. Again you can get higher 22-1 at Fan but very low limits and just gunna take now with 18x at B365 .. what we get here is a safety starter and Indy's highest PFF rated defender .. Boykin can pressure effectively and has a number of pressures and some sacks this year and is a great tackler so he should keep the stat board busy on the basic stuff .. the main reason his odds are higher is he only has 2 picks and 3 pbu's this year .. great coverage grade though and and guy that can stay busy ... love to see him nab a critical INT and / or make a big play on a blitz .. if so I think just the nature of his stats being very busy in on plays .. and the way Miami plays with shorter passing and relying on yards after catch letting safeties maybe make more plays in the game .. just seems like longer odds dude's name could very easily get called end of the night .. in comparison to the other safety Amare Ferrell 10-1 think Boykin's odds seem like they should be similar .. another way to go is the other CB Jamari Sharpe 20-1 .. not much in the season stats would predict him being the MVP here but again think just find a starter that's not a dud and .. assuming indy wins .. could be his lucky night if he makes a big critical play ..
I'd say shy away from WR's normally .. the last one we saw win was Davonta Smith and on top of winning the heisman that year he then proceeded to have 12 catches for 215 yds and 3 TD's in the Natty .. Mac Jones had something like 460 yds passing 5 TD's zero picks .. let's just say I get why Davonta won it .. but if he hadn't won the heisman I think the QB likely takes it down .. we saw something close to those lines when Clemson won and Ross had his MASSIVE 175 yds but nothing close to Trevor's eventual major dude stats so .. again even EPIC performances by WR's tend to still leave them out of the winner circle ..
Malachi is a little different and Miami does tend to throw passes shorter and let players work extra yards and create highlights that way .. we also nearly saw him make the maybe the most INCREDIBLE catch of the entire footall season vs Ole Miss .. highlight potential is there .. he also gets a few rush attempts per game and count on 2-4 plays to him on the ground where he's not sharing those stats with his QB .. and Toney also throws passes and and been getting 1-2 shots each game since week 11 going 4-7 and 1 TD .. basically this guy has the ability to take over a game the way Cam Skattebo did vs UT last year and find a way to win .. we did see Toney was given a chance to throw last game vs Ole Miss .. if he hit a big one I think the odds here are considerably lower 10-1 or so .. also expecting a defensive game so if Miami does win it feels like there won't be many BIG STAT players out there although Toney might be, and more likely see FG scoring and so Toney maybe one of the few TD scorers and nice stats on the day .. add on potential for MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS and could be him in the MVP winnner circle over Beck quite easy .. esp if Beck succumbs to pressure and has an iffy night .. you'll notice his odds at 6-1 while Miami is 3-1 underdog .. books are def saying there's a chance someone else can win the MVP even if Miami wins ..
as for indiana's offensive MVP .. My sense here is that when media picks the guy they want a media friendly face and heisman trophy winners getting on the big stage one last time as folks are considering whether to turn off their TV is just baked in the DNA of the voters and they kinda just know what to do .. I'd say its possible someone else besides Mendoza could win it .. but with soooo much distribution between the receiving targets and the 2 RB's splitting so much of the run game .. I just can't see Mendoza not take it home if Indy wins unless there's some absolutely MASSIVE and MAJOR standout performance by one other particular player .. even if so like Surrat's performance in the semi's or something a bit more than that its still tough to imagine they aren't giving it to Mendoza .. for -225 I'll pass .. if there was some way to combine his winning into a prop parlays w other things pointing to indy winning I'd say just tack Mendo onto that for an odds booster and feel good about it ..
0
OFFENSIVE MVP
OFF MVP: MALACHI TONEY 20-1 (MIAMI) .1/2.0
I'd say shy away from WR's normally .. the last one we saw win was Davonta Smith and on top of winning the heisman that year he then proceeded to have 12 catches for 215 yds and 3 TD's in the Natty .. Mac Jones had something like 460 yds passing 5 TD's zero picks .. let's just say I get why Davonta won it .. but if he hadn't won the heisman I think the QB likely takes it down .. we saw something close to those lines when Clemson won and Ross had his MASSIVE 175 yds but nothing close to Trevor's eventual major dude stats so .. again even EPIC performances by WR's tend to still leave them out of the winner circle ..
Malachi is a little different and Miami does tend to throw passes shorter and let players work extra yards and create highlights that way .. we also nearly saw him make the maybe the most INCREDIBLE catch of the entire footall season vs Ole Miss .. highlight potential is there .. he also gets a few rush attempts per game and count on 2-4 plays to him on the ground where he's not sharing those stats with his QB .. and Toney also throws passes and and been getting 1-2 shots each game since week 11 going 4-7 and 1 TD .. basically this guy has the ability to take over a game the way Cam Skattebo did vs UT last year and find a way to win .. we did see Toney was given a chance to throw last game vs Ole Miss .. if he hit a big one I think the odds here are considerably lower 10-1 or so .. also expecting a defensive game so if Miami does win it feels like there won't be many BIG STAT players out there although Toney might be, and more likely see FG scoring and so Toney maybe one of the few TD scorers and nice stats on the day .. add on potential for MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS and could be him in the MVP winnner circle over Beck quite easy .. esp if Beck succumbs to pressure and has an iffy night .. you'll notice his odds at 6-1 while Miami is 3-1 underdog .. books are def saying there's a chance someone else can win the MVP even if Miami wins ..
as for indiana's offensive MVP .. My sense here is that when media picks the guy they want a media friendly face and heisman trophy winners getting on the big stage one last time as folks are considering whether to turn off their TV is just baked in the DNA of the voters and they kinda just know what to do .. I'd say its possible someone else besides Mendoza could win it .. but with soooo much distribution between the receiving targets and the 2 RB's splitting so much of the run game .. I just can't see Mendoza not take it home if Indy wins unless there's some absolutely MASSIVE and MAJOR standout performance by one other particular player .. even if so like Surrat's performance in the semi's or something a bit more than that its still tough to imagine they aren't giving it to Mendoza .. for -225 I'll pass .. if there was some way to combine his winning into a prop parlays w other things pointing to indy winning I'd say just tack Mendo onto that for an odds booster and feel good about it ..
Taking a little middle on the Indy -7.5 action we got .. recall we got + odds on those when banking them right after the semifinal game expecting maybe this will go to 9 or 9.5 .. a massive move from the pre-semi hypo line of 5.5 which I wish I had more of to effect the middle .. but alas we got what we got at -7.5 for small + odds and I think we'll top out at 8.5 and maybe finish around 8 or back to 7.5 .. recall that the books have been fairly sharp this year and like I said in my indy notes when little brothers are talking about 'betting the farm' on Indiana for over a TD its a good time to pause and reflect ..
The matchups here are so interesting that it does give me a sense that Miami if they can be effective could keep this game relatively close under one score .. maybe that means they just keep it to 8 and we hit em all lol .. if Miami doesn't hand out free TD's like Oregon and plays well I suspect we could end up with the defensive game Miami had with Ohio State, TAMU and Indy with their style of longer drives seen in every game .. really comes down to their efficiency because they can put 7-8 minute drives together and get this clock melted away .. Miami's propensity for shorter passing and trying to get yds after contact vs Indy's can't miss tackling can also lead to longer drives .. Cristobal also doesn't move fast when his team is in the game or has a lead ..
All that said .. Miami probably will have a legitimate HFA being at home although expect THE RED SEA to flood the gates like they did vs Oregon .. still its the canes home stadium and they know how to maneuver on the familiar terrain .. maybe simple things like best cleats and how to best not to slip on the home turf .. er home grass .. gives them a slight edge in game .. Miami has the major dudes in the trenches .. Indy's OL has some deficiency in pass protection and its possible for Miami to exploit it and cause indy's pass game some problems so they may elect to do more of the 4 yd runs this gm drawing out their scoring drives much longer because Miami's run D is very good up front .. Miami's OL could have enough advantage to effect a similar strategy .. keep the series of plays on schedule with short runs and screens .. quite a chess match in the trenches and the play calling .. and critical mistakes .. will make or break the game for either team .. could you imagine if the team's swapped coaches though lol ..
Alas I think the move now is to not be out on too much of a limb (pre-kick) with indy laying over a TD and with the + odds we have a very easy way to catch a possible middle if we happen to land on 8 .. 28-20, 9-17 .. and just any combo where one team needs and gets a 2xp to keep it to a one score game .. not to mention the wacky 2xp's we see when a team is coming back .. it creates more chances to hit 8 than history tells us ..
Another biiig matchup is Indy being thin at DE .. Kamara is available I assume Psycho Ciggy will play him every play since he leads the team in pressures .. but they have 3 DE's out so far including Dailey who injured himself celebrating after ohio state .. freak accident .. it puts this unit in a potential major bind and also don't have nearly the size up front relying on well coached run stop and pass rush schemes.. PFF ratings have taken a major dip as the competition has gone up even if we haven't seen the results of that yet we might here with Miami finding gaps and keeping drives alive ..
0
NATTY
MIAMI +8.5 2.75/2.5 (MIDDLE)
Taking a little middle on the Indy -7.5 action we got .. recall we got + odds on those when banking them right after the semifinal game expecting maybe this will go to 9 or 9.5 .. a massive move from the pre-semi hypo line of 5.5 which I wish I had more of to effect the middle .. but alas we got what we got at -7.5 for small + odds and I think we'll top out at 8.5 and maybe finish around 8 or back to 7.5 .. recall that the books have been fairly sharp this year and like I said in my indy notes when little brothers are talking about 'betting the farm' on Indiana for over a TD its a good time to pause and reflect ..
The matchups here are so interesting that it does give me a sense that Miami if they can be effective could keep this game relatively close under one score .. maybe that means they just keep it to 8 and we hit em all lol .. if Miami doesn't hand out free TD's like Oregon and plays well I suspect we could end up with the defensive game Miami had with Ohio State, TAMU and Indy with their style of longer drives seen in every game .. really comes down to their efficiency because they can put 7-8 minute drives together and get this clock melted away .. Miami's propensity for shorter passing and trying to get yds after contact vs Indy's can't miss tackling can also lead to longer drives .. Cristobal also doesn't move fast when his team is in the game or has a lead ..
All that said .. Miami probably will have a legitimate HFA being at home although expect THE RED SEA to flood the gates like they did vs Oregon .. still its the canes home stadium and they know how to maneuver on the familiar terrain .. maybe simple things like best cleats and how to best not to slip on the home turf .. er home grass .. gives them a slight edge in game .. Miami has the major dudes in the trenches .. Indy's OL has some deficiency in pass protection and its possible for Miami to exploit it and cause indy's pass game some problems so they may elect to do more of the 4 yd runs this gm drawing out their scoring drives much longer because Miami's run D is very good up front .. Miami's OL could have enough advantage to effect a similar strategy .. keep the series of plays on schedule with short runs and screens .. quite a chess match in the trenches and the play calling .. and critical mistakes .. will make or break the game for either team .. could you imagine if the team's swapped coaches though lol ..
Alas I think the move now is to not be out on too much of a limb (pre-kick) with indy laying over a TD and with the + odds we have a very easy way to catch a possible middle if we happen to land on 8 .. 28-20, 9-17 .. and just any combo where one team needs and gets a 2xp to keep it to a one score game .. not to mention the wacky 2xp's we see when a team is coming back .. it creates more chances to hit 8 than history tells us ..
Another biiig matchup is Indy being thin at DE .. Kamara is available I assume Psycho Ciggy will play him every play since he leads the team in pressures .. but they have 3 DE's out so far including Dailey who injured himself celebrating after ohio state .. freak accident .. it puts this unit in a potential major bind and also don't have nearly the size up front relying on well coached run stop and pass rush schemes.. PFF ratings have taken a major dip as the competition has gone up even if we haven't seen the results of that yet we might here with Miami finding gaps and keeping drives alive ..
Keep in mind I have some unposted Miami futures .. awesome ones .. that avg out to 1 unit to win 31 if they win .. I'd prob play some kinda middle anyway but the particular amounts serve to really even things up a bit if Indy wins but doesn't cover .. basically 13 units for Miami to win, 9 for indy win no cover, 13 units for win and cover em all .. 19 units if we get lucky in the middle .. fingers xx'd lol .. so ignore the unit sizes if tailing their suited to my situation ..
Went ahead and having fun with these .. think we could see Miami keep it at least close here .. and if they can pitch an epic game and win by a little margin which I think is possible then I think the score will likely be fairly low maybe super duper low with a slug fest like we saw in OSU/INDY .. of course .. 'they have a chance to keep it close' has been the famous last words of anyone fading Indy this year lol ..
ALT LINE FUN MIAMI +1.5/U31.5 .05/1.05 MIAMI +3.5/U27.5 .025/.7 MIAMI -6.5/U31.5 .5/2.0 MIAMI -8.5/U34.5 .2/8
PROP FUN
MIA +1.5, U38.5, ANY TD: SARRATT, TONEY .05/7.5
OFF MVP: M.TONEY 20-1 (MIAMI) .1/2.0 C.BECKER 55-1 (INDY) .02/1
Keep in mind I have some unposted Miami futures .. awesome ones .. that avg out to 1 unit to win 31 if they win .. I'd prob play some kinda middle anyway but the particular amounts serve to really even things up a bit if Indy wins but doesn't cover .. basically 13 units for Miami to win, 9 for indy win no cover, 13 units for win and cover em all .. 19 units if we get lucky in the middle .. fingers xx'd lol .. so ignore the unit sizes if tailing their suited to my situation ..
Went ahead and having fun with these .. think we could see Miami keep it at least close here .. and if they can pitch an epic game and win by a little margin which I think is possible then I think the score will likely be fairly low maybe super duper low with a slug fest like we saw in OSU/INDY .. of course .. 'they have a chance to keep it close' has been the famous last words of anyone fading Indy this year lol ..
ALT LINE FUN MIAMI +1.5/U31.5 .05/1.05 MIAMI +3.5/U27.5 .025/.7 MIAMI -6.5/U31.5 .5/2.0 MIAMI -8.5/U34.5 .2/8
PROP FUN
MIA +1.5, U38.5, ANY TD: SARRATT, TONEY .05/7.5
OFF MVP: M.TONEY 20-1 (MIAMI) .1/2.0 C.BECKER 55-1 (INDY) .02/1
GOOD CALLS: WASH, OHIO, UTAH, FRESNO, ILLINOIS .. THE OLD LA-TECH/COASTAL MIDDLE AND KAMARA MVP WAS A 3 UNIT BANGER
DISAPPOINTING: MICHIGAN+7 ..
BIGGEST WTF: OKLAHOMA .. FIREABLE OFFENSE ...
DUDS: TRARLETON, PITT, INDY -7.5 NATTY WAS LIKE -17.5 IN-GM .. ALL THE ALT LINE / PROP STUFF MOSTLY GARBAGE ..
BIGGEST NEAR MISS: PARLAYS WENT 2-5 FOR +3.4 UNITS .. THE ACTUAL CARDS WENT 24-6 .. MOSTLY ML DOGS .. 4 PARLAYS DIED OF THE 1-LOSS VIRUS.. OU ML, PITT -7, VANDY ML WERE THE MAJOR OFFENDERS TURN POTENTIALLY +5 UNITS IN PARLAY BANGERS INTO A -.3 UNIT LOSS .. SHEESH.. NEXT TIME ..
0
RECAP
BEST OF THE BOWL SSN: NAVY, ARMY, HOUSTON, TCU
GOOD CALLS: WASH, OHIO, UTAH, FRESNO, ILLINOIS .. THE OLD LA-TECH/COASTAL MIDDLE AND KAMARA MVP WAS A 3 UNIT BANGER
DISAPPOINTING: MICHIGAN+7 ..
BIGGEST WTF: OKLAHOMA .. FIREABLE OFFENSE ...
DUDS: TRARLETON, PITT, INDY -7.5 NATTY WAS LIKE -17.5 IN-GM .. ALL THE ALT LINE / PROP STUFF MOSTLY GARBAGE ..
BIGGEST NEAR MISS: PARLAYS WENT 2-5 FOR +3.4 UNITS .. THE ACTUAL CARDS WENT 24-6 .. MOSTLY ML DOGS .. 4 PARLAYS DIED OF THE 1-LOSS VIRUS.. OU ML, PITT -7, VANDY ML WERE THE MAJOR OFFENDERS TURN POTENTIALLY +5 UNITS IN PARLAY BANGERS INTO A -.3 UNIT LOSS .. SHEESH.. NEXT TIME ..
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