bounce back week. my ratings vs vegas line for every game on the board

all 48 games for this week now covered...will get back to you with my final selections later tonight or tomorrow...

if someone wants to know how a team performs in a specific situation or how the league performs in a specific situation, you can post your questions here and i will post what i have in my database.


anything from trends to systems...i will be glad to help...

system of the week:

favorites of 3-21 pts after winning in overtime as home favorites last week (no bye) are 3-27 ats in last 30. (fade unlv, go with nevada).

South Florida is favored by 8.5 and that is not a surprise. The line is inflated a point or two and there are two major reasons for that. S.Florida is a ranked team, and NCST is due for a letdown after the upset over ECU. If S.Florida was a major public team this week, they would be an automatic fade as they would fit into a 0-8 ATS group but since they have barely over 53% of public bets, they are not a fade material. Lean: None.

 

The public will buy back their bets and slam SFLA hard when they find out NCstate doesnt have their starting QB and LB. 

(1-2) TEN @ (2-1) AUB -6.5

PLAY: TENNESSEE +7 *B* 0.5


Here is the second ranked team this week that doesn't have an inflated line AT ALL. For a home team ranked better by 20-40 places, the line should be close to 10 and Auburn is laying 6.5 only. These teams favored by 3-11 are only 6-15 ATS year-to-date and no other team on that list has had anything close to what Auburn is getting as the public support here. The closest ones have been Purdue against CMU (barely won the game without covering the spread) and WF against Ole Miss (once again barely won without covering the spread). The ranked teams in this group have been favored by at least 7 and mostly by double digits. They have a 0-5 ATS record in this spot.

Auburn's offense has been sleeping until their last game, vs LSU, when they finally woke up, but unfortunately, that's the game where their defense got exposed and they lost outright at home. This should be a battle of two defensive teams and getting a TD in such a matchup could be huge. Tennessee lost to Florida last week after turning the ball over three times. They had the same number of first downs, and actually outgained the Gators. Auburn was heavily outgained by LSU and they deserved to lose despite the 14-3 halftime lead. Their defense is probably not as good as it looked before last week's game. Auburn is not good running or passing the ball, and Tennessee at least can run.



(1-2) NEV @ (3-1) UNLV -4

PLAY: NEVADA +4



Very short number for a team ranked 30 places better, playing at home, after two straight wins against major conference opponents. Actually there have been 11 other small home faves laying less than a TD while being ranked 10-30 places better and they went 3-8 ATS. UNLV is getting more than 60% of action right now and that tells us that they have been noticed after their wins over IOST and ARST.

Nevada had two weeks to prepare for this meeting against their rivals. They dominated this series in last three years going 3-0 SU, ATS and outscoring UNLV 80-37. They lost their starting RB prior to the Mizzou game but they stil had 180 yards on the ground without him. They used 7 guys in their ground attack including their QB's and averaged 4.1 yards per carry. That is very solid when you don't have your main rusher on the field. With an extra week to prepare they should be OK for this game.

While Nevada was resting and preparing, UNLV had a hard fought battle vs IOST and that was their second straight overtime win against two major conference opponents. It is time for a letdown.

system of the week:favorites of 3-21 pts after winning in overtime as home favorites last week (no bye) are 3-27 ats in last 30. (fade unlv, go with nevada).



(1-2) CFL -5 @ (0-3) UTEP

PLAY: UTEP +5



Central Florida is yet another team in that 6-15 ATS group that also includes ARKST, New Mexico, WMU... this week. As for the public support, they are getting plenty, maybe even too much for a 1-2 team ranked only 48 places better than their opponent. But when you have a favorite laying a very short number against a winless team, that's the % of bets you'll get 9 out of 10 times.


Central Florida caught South Florida in a classic look-ahead situation and lost that game in OT, and also played a young BC team comming off of bye and played them hard in the first half only to get hammered in the second. They have two big efforts behind them with 0 wins to show for. It is letdown time.

We could probably say that for UTEP as well but there is less chance to see a home dog in revenge situation to experience a letdown. UTEP tried to revenge their previous seasons losses to NMXST lastweek but it didn't work out. NMXST QB has their number. Prior to that they outgained Texas in a big loss. Their offense is good enough to outscore C.Florida who has been struggling on offense this season.



(1-3) NMX -3.5 @ (1-1) NMST

PLAY: NEW MEXICO STATE +3.5



New Mexico is ranked 50 places better than New Mexico State and they are in the same group as WMU, ARKST that is 6-15 ATS year-to-date. They are actually the only road team so far this season ranked at least 50 places better that is favored by less than 7 points. The closest one was Oregon State ranked 47 places better than Stanford and laying 3 points that lost outright. With 63% of public bets on New Mexico and their starting QB out for the season my play is: New Mexico State +3.5


When you look at the head-to-head numbers from the past 2 seasons you'll see that NMXST won the battle of first downs 59-35, they outgained the Lobos by 191 yards, C.Holbrook had 8 TD and 3 INT with over 850 yards and they lost both game, thanks to New Mexico's ground attack. This could be the last and the best chance for C.Holbrook to beat New Mexico. The Lobos will not have their starting QB, NMXST is playing in their own stadium, they are comming off of a big road underdog win, and C.Holbrook is much healthier than last season.

Last season they were tied early in the 4th quarter and it was a game in the University Stadium (UNM). The State was actually able to stop NM run or at least to run as much as NM did. Donovan Porterie had an almost perfect game for NM and he is not going to play in this one.

NMXST played one game less than NM and NM played three taugh games, all three as underdogs, and they shouldn't be able to match NMST energy level in this game.



(3-1) MARS @ (1-2) WVA -14

This line went down from the initial -17 for a good reason. WVA is not as good as percieved and Marshall scared them twice in last three meetings in this series that is actually a renewed rivalery and Marshall's Bowl game.
Given the differential in ratings this line is where it should be but the fact is, home teams ranked 30-60 places better and laying TD or more, but not more than 17.5 are not a long term winning proposition. These teams are only 2-9 ATS if getting over 50% of public support and WVA is getting close to 65% right now.


WVU is stil in the top 25 ? Not for long. Marshall has the best chance to knock them off right now as I don't believe Rutgers will do it next week. And then they play Syracuse after that which is a sure win. So, if they don't lose to Marshall on Saturday, they will probably be on a 3 games winning streak when they meet Auburn.

For Marshall, games vs WVU mean a lot. Last season they scared them to hell as they trailed by only 4 going into the fourth quarter. That's where WVU finally ended Marshall's resistence with 3 straight TD to win it confortably. I believe this week Marshall will finish what they couldn't finish last season against a much different WVU team.

They are doing everything well this season and they are comming off of a upset win @ SMISS last week. The momentum is on their side while WVU is stil nowhere close to where they've been in last few years.

(3-0) WIS -6 @ (1-2) MICH

PLAY: MICHIGAN +7 -130 *B*


Wisconsin is a 27 places better ranked road team and that puts them in between two major groupes of teams. The ones that are 7+ favorites and usually cover and those that are 5.5- favorites that usually lose. This fact alone would make them a no-lean but with just over 70% of public on them, I have to take a closer look. Road faves with 68+ public support, ranked not more than 50 places better are 0-5 ATS. Some notables from this group: Fresno at Toledo, Northwestern at Duke and S.Florida @ Central Florida.Lean: Michigan +7 after buying 0.5

After taking a closer look, I discovered that road favorites of not more than 9 pts, ranked 10+ places better are 1-12-1 ATS year-to-date if they have 60+ % of bets on them. This week there are several teams that fit into that system and these teams are: Michigan State (I believe they are not laying double digits here for the simple reason of their win over UND last week as teams tend to fail ATS after the win against UND), Central Florida (I already have my official play on UTEP), Bowling Green (just can't pull the trigger on Wyoming) and Wisconsin.

Another interesting thing about this Wisky vs Michigan matchup is the very low total of 42. Going back to last season, this is the lowest total in any Wisconsin's regular season game and they are 0-5 ATS in last 5 where the total was 47 or lower. They are also 0-4 ATS in last 4 on the road with the total <50. The public loves Wisky and over here, and that actually means that Wisconsin should score 25 + to cover the spread and that's something they've done only twice in last 10 games away from home.

Big 10 openers are known as close games and low scoring affaires. It is never easy to play your first road game in the B10 as well. Here is the list of most recent Big 10 openers for both schools.

Wisconsin:

2007: 17-13 vs Iowa (L, Under), first @ 26-31 (L, Over) @ Illini
2006: 13-27 vs UM (P, Under), that was also their first B10 road game
2005: 13-10 vs UM (W, Under), first @ 48-51 (L, Over) @ UNW

Michigan:

2007: 14-9 vs PSU (W, Under)
2006: 27-13 vs WIS (P, Under)
2005: 20-23 vs MIN (L, Under)


Wisconsin's passing game is far from dominant and they are becomming a one-dimensional team with lots of rushing attempts. However, their rushing offense barely reached 4 yards per carry in last two games. Michigan has a rush defense that can stop the Badgers ground attack. Michigan is allowing 1.8 yards per carry against opponents who run for 3.1 yards per carry. At home (two games), Michigan is allowing just 1.1 yard per carry. Gotta love the home dog in the B10 looking for some revenge.