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bounce back week. my ratings vs vegas line for every game on the board

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by lonetreejj:

  W365
 
  thanks for sharing your work
 
looks like .....        

 

 

hoping fpr a big week with my traditional approach...gl !

 

 

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyTheLegend:

Does the *B* in Tennessee and Michigan, stand for your "Best System Plays" ?

 

'b' is for buying half or full point

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by big75dog75:

NICE INFO TY AND GL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

wish ya many winners this week

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by romocuse:

Much respect and thanks for your continued contribution to the forum section.  Your information has helped me tremendously.
 
Continued success, W365. 
 
 
always glad to help...posting forums should have a lot of info exchange to the benefit of all who visit...it is easy to post a play without any writeup...its not about plays and records imo...it is about sharing the info and helping each other out !
 
 
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Posted: #55
Holy shit dude, why didnt you just name this thread " I love underdogs". It would have been more accurate.
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by w365:

Obviously my 5th play is Marshall +14

w365, great thread!!  I always knew there was value in leaning opposite of the line value, but didn't know how to harness that info!!

do you play all of these games that have a lean?  is there a way to pick out the strongest ones?? 

 
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Posted: #57
Your w/ups are definately a must read, week after week.
 
Cheers
 
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:

w365, great thread!!  I always knew there was value in leaning opposite of the line value, but didn't know how to harness that info!!

do you play all of these games that have a lean?  is there a way to pick out the strongest ones?? 

 

I only have 7 plays this week.

 

My leans are the games that I have to take a closer look at. like a starting point.

so far it looks like a good decision not to make smu my official play

 
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Posted: #59

w365, thanks for sharing your knowledge. will you post your final 7 plays of the week?

all the best! :)

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by w365:

 

I only have 7 plays this week.

 

My leans are the games that I have to take a closer look at. like a starting point.

so far it looks like a good decision not to make smu my official play

 

 

Well, looks like they'll end up covering the big number.

 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by wallym:

w365, thanks for sharing your knowledge. will you post your final 7 plays of the week?

all the best! :)

 

 

already posted...see ^

(uconn, nmst, nev, ten, mars, mich, utep)

 
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Posted: #62
 
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Posted: #63
w365, what website gives you the most accurate betting percentages?? 
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by w365:

(3-1) ARKST -1.5 @ (1-3) MEM
 
Here is an interesting line. I have Arkansas State ranked 35 places better and these teams (ranked better but not more than 80 and not less than 20 places) are either underdogs or favorites of 7 pts or less. When underdogs, these teams cover if small underdogs and fail to cover as big underdogs. When favorites of 9 pts or less they are 6-15 ATS. Finally, when they are very small favorites of less than 6 they are 1-4 ATS. The only one that covered was Wisconsin laying 2 @ Fresno and winning by 3. Lean: MEM +1.5
 
 
(3-1) WMU -4 @ (1-3) TEM
 
WMU is ranked 40 places better than Temple and fits into that same 6-15 ATS category as Arkansas State against Memphis. The important thing here is that Temple lost its starting QB and this will not be my play regardless the line. Temple rating could take a major hit due to this injury if they play poorly in this game. However, for the moment the lean is: TEM +4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Do you go off of opening line or gametime line?  For instance, Memphis opened as a pick em, not an underdog....

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:

w365, what website gives you the most accurate betting percentages?? 

 

i recieve many e-mails daily from friends and books and i get the betting percentages from several major books and these are the most accurate numbers one can have...

 

wagerline is not bad but that's a 'fantasy' book...but it can be used a s a tool and their numbers are very accurate as well. kudos to them

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:

Do you go off of opening line or gametime line?  For instance, Memphis opened as a pick em, not an underdog....

 

game time line but since i post my writeups earlier in the week, for posting purposes i use the lines that are avaiable at that time...the plays i chose as my official plays are the ones where i feel that the possible line change will not affect the play

 
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Posted: #67
to avoid any confusion
 
my leans are just the games that i intend to research in details. out of 27 games that were circled as 'leans' i picked 7 to go as my plays
 
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Posted: #68
Any particular reason why you left off Indiana, Wyoming, and Eastern Mich?  The writeups and stats seemed fairly stong and I was already playing all three....Just want to know if theres something I need to be careful of.
 
This thread kicks ass! 
 
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Posted: #69

upgrade:

 

NORTH TEXAS +17.5 is a lean now.

 

I just didn't expect Rice to have over 70% of bets on them all week long. Home teams ranked 25-55 places better, laying 10-21 pts are rarely getting that kind of public support. If getting anything over 60% of public support they are 1-10-1 ATS year-to-date. Some notable non covers from that group are: Pittsburgh losing at home as 14 pts fave over BG, Wyoming beating Ohio by 1 as 14 pts favorite, Minnesota barely edging NIU by 4 on the last minute TD as 10 pts favorite, and so on.

 

The total of 68.5 with majority of UNDER bets also goes in NTX favor. Their only few ATS wins since the start of the last season came with high totals and not many people on the OVER.

 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:

Any particular reason why you left off Indiana, Wyoming, and Eastern Mich?  The writeups and stats seemed fairly stong and I was already playing all three....Just want to know if theres something I need to be careful of.
 
This thread kicks ass! 

 

simply no balls to go with these three...

i consider them bad enough to avoid any of my money being risked on them. can they win ats ? of course, and if you like them, go for it...i just can't do it right now...

 

 
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Posted: #71
New Mexico St. down to +3 now. If it moves below a FG then it's definately time to grab some Aggies ML. Been looking at this one all week and will be on it as well.
Looks like we're going head to head tonight. GL on the rest of tomorrows card
 
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Posted: #72
The public is on NM State hence the line move.
That play is a bit too public for my taste.
 
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Posted: #73
nice start...
 
first a lean won yesterday and now the official play won tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #74
i counted 6 teams....7????
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by sub1308:

i counted 6 teams....7????

 

you probably missed marshall

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