Bama/IU Lessons – I Need a New Stat

One of the stats I heavily lean into during the college pre-season is how many games have the returning offensive linemen started.  Why?  Because offensive line experience and cohesion is critical, and usually indicative of early season success.  Well, guess what?  That “experience” dynamic also applies to every other position on the field too.  And guess who figured this out before I did?  Curt Cignetti.  And guess who else needs to figure this out?  People who wager on college football.  Let me explain.

The average age of the IU roster is 22.5 years old.  The average age of the Alabama roster is sub-20.  Guess which roster has the biggest, strongest and fastest players?  Guess which roster has the most future NFL players?  If you guessed Alabama, you would be correct.  But when we look at “experience”, and this is what I missed when handicapping this game, we can see that IU holds a massive "experience" advantage . . . and therein lies Curt Spaghetti’s secret sauce.  He is beating you with guys who have 3-4 years of playing experience, and because they know they won’t play in the NFL, they are begging the NCAA to let them play longer.

Cignetti is essentially snatching “veteran” college football players off of the transfer portal, and getting these veterans to play assignment sound football.  That experience exuded itself all over the field against Alabama.  If you’re lucky enough to complete a pass against them, YAC is a myth because they are always in the right spot, and they never miss tackles.

So yeah, I what I really need is a new “experience” stat so that all of us can better handicap college football games going forward.  I have much more to say about how recruiting and the transfer portal are playing into this, but Covers don’t like term papers., so maybe another time.

Very nice 

  Fully developed grown men vs, under-developed teenagers

The problem with bama o line is its a revolving door...one thing deboer brought from the pac nw is how soft we are...we never used to get bully balled and were living in this for the first time in 20 years.

Plus Bama is a one-dimensional team who can't run the ball. Those kinds of teams will never go far in the playoffs.

That is a very interesting point! Thanks for sharing! 

I like that Jimmy looking deep into the possible reasons your bet or team lost! Well thought out! 

@payne034

Rotating offensive linemen is different, but I don't know how much that is contributing to the problem.  The point I am making in this post is that Alabama's NFL prospect, super talented 18 year old 5-star lineman is useless against a 25 year old with no NFL future but has 4 years of college experience.  We have fully grown men playing against under-developed kids - talented kids - but still kids.  That's how Cignetti has built IU.

@jimmydafreak

 Leave it to you. You're good. You're very good.

@jimmydafreak

 I will read this term paper, my main man.

Good info is good for sure.

@jimmydafreak 

Digging a little deeper into this age-discrepency issue, I found two articles on complex dot com that address this issue head on.  I don't think Covers allows us to post links anymore, so I will give you the headline of the articles, and post some relevant quotes from those articles.

Diego Pavia Files Lawsuit to Continue Playing College Football

This lawsuit was filed not by just Diego Pavia, but a total of 26 former JUCO college football players.  The players argue that their time spent playing JUCO ball should not count against their Division I eligibility.  None of these guy are legitimate NFL prospects, but stand to make a ton of NIL money if they can preserve their college eligibility. For example, Diego Pavia - who just completed his sixth college football season - is making 2 million dollars a year playing QB for Vanderbilt.  If he loses his eligibility, next year he'll be making 20k working at Chik Fil A.  So there is a lot of money at stake for these guys.

Quote from article:

"The NCAA has also consistently argued that eligibility rules are tied to education, not economics, and are meant to align athletic participation with the typical college timeline."

Another article is entitled:

Matt Barnes Shades ‘Old-A**’ NCAA Players Amid Diego Pavia Eligibility Controversy

Quotes from article:

“March Madness was the funnest basketball in the country,” he said. “But when you turn on March Madness, and you see these old a** dudes… If I wanted to see old a** dudes that aren’t good enough to go to the NBA, I’ll go to the park. I’ll go to a pickup game. I don’t want to watch March Madness with these old a** players that are 26 years old, beating up on 18-year-olds.”

and:

"The NCAA has maintained that eligibility rules are meant to preserve competitive balance and align athletics with the traditional college timeline. Barnes’ criticism, however, highlights growing tension across college sports, where older, more experienced athletes are increasingly sharing the field—or court—with teenagers."

@nmgolf57

Age discrepency is what is missing . . . fully developed 24 year old grown men playing against under-developed 18 year old teenagers.

You see this alot in the college hockey playoffs.  Some loaded team like Minnesota will go into a final four, with a bunch of first and 2nd year players, and play some random team like Quinnipiac, or Yale, which you might think the Gophers are going to walk all over, with all their hotshot goal scorers, however that other team is loaded with 24 year old 4 and 5 year starters.  They're often bigger, and stronger, especially in the paint on both ends, but even more so, the game slows down for those 4 and 5 year vets, a little bit, and they see the rink better.  In games like that, the gophers are stuck on the perimeter, can't get bodies and pucks to the net, can't work the middle of the ice, and they get beat by experience.  As a gopher fan I've seen it multiple times.  Mankato State, now called Minnesota state used that experienced recipe to beat the Gophers hotshots in more than one playoff.

As this whole NIL thing evolves, coaches from the Minnesota's and Kstates, are going to have to figure out how to compete with less dollars, and to your point, it might be taking those older 3 star players that have been around the block.  Football isn't always about pure strength, if it were, wrestling guys like Brock Lesnar would have made it in the NFL, or some random super track guy, from Africa would be playing wide receiver.  But you don't see that.  Technique and execution is king.  It's the greatest team sport. 

-------

 I've played sports all my life.  I'm 60 now, and still play, just not as fast.  I can tell you, regardless of the sport, I was a better player in my late 20's and 30's than I was in my early 20's.  Whatever I'm playing, the game slows down, there's better awareness, better vision, better technique, better thinking process, more resolve, less panic, less quit, more toughness.  That mental maturity, more than anything, makes a big difference.  

@anal_yzer

a better player in my late 20's and 30's than I was in my early 20's.

 So very true 1000%

The old roster building paradigm has shifted.  Stacking up 5* recruiting classes like Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama are doing every year doesn't work like it use to.  I see two problems.  First, when you recruit an 18 year old 5* NFL prospect, guess what? he wants to see the field right away.  That sets up the situation we saw in the Alabama/IU game where 18 and 19 year olds - talented NFL prospects as they may be - are facing fully grown men with 3-4 years of experience - more in some cases - on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

Now I see said the blind man.

Another thing that dovetails right into this is those 18 year old 5 stars once given millions of dollars become less motivated and less coachable. Hell, no 18 yr old knows how to handle that much money. I truly believe this is why Saban retired.

I forgot to mention the second draw back to recruiting a 5* out of high school.  That is, in the NIL era, recruiting 5*s and keeping 5*s are two completely different things.  Texas A&M had the greatest recruiting class in the history of mankind a couple of years ago, and today, most of those guys - like LT Overton -  are playing for other teams.  Lofty recruiting rankings look great on paper, but translating those lofty ranking to wins on the field in the NIL era is proving to be extremely difficult.

I will add that as a third drawback to recruiting 5*s out of high school.

Thank you, sir.

I played for Shula back in the day and even we never got beat like that.. Indiana looked like a Saban team and just had their way up front, I mean I've watched IU for two years now closely on film.. I knew they could win if they could run and that's what backed me off taking Bama I just don't trust these teams the same to put my money down in the same capacity anymore.. but the way it happened was just, they railroaded them with their offensive line in the 2nd half and just flat out did what they wanted once they had balance to hit the shots down field passing off of the run game. 

@jwheels86

The officiating does it for me.  The officiating is especially corrupt in bowl games.

Well, why wouldn't they be? They got everyone's money finally with the whole public betting like it hasn't since Roman times. 

So Jimmy, and forgive me if you have already commented on this...

Will my Hoosiers be able to carry that same advantage into the Oregon game?   I see the line is IU -4...Oregon has revenge on its mind...Is this another case of full grown men who may not have a future in the NFL (Indiana Hoosiers) against 4 and 5 star dope smoking ;) Oregon Ducks who perhaps don't have as much experience?  

What's your take on the Indiana v. Oregon game?  Thank you in advance...

@LonghornHoosier

 I think so.  You have to like the Hoosiers the rest of the way.  Dante Moore is a mistake waiting to happen, and that's not a formula for beating IU.  It seems Cignetti has these guys peaking at the right time, which, after last year's Notre Dame loss, is one of their stated team goals this season.

I think Trinidad Chambliss is the best and most dangerous QB in college football.  His ability to make huge off-script plays make him a serious headache for any defense.  He is capable of ending anyone's season (see UGA), but I think Cignetti will slow him down enough for IU to prevail.  So yeah, I think I like IU versus everyone.

#CignettiSemiProTeam