B1G week 2

wasn’t expecting to play this game, but the line move doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

Michigan +6.5

@HockeyNight11

@HockeyNight11

I agree.....but I want a laydown ....not a swim upstream potentially, against fast move ice 

Genius cap if they win the game and cover easily. 

Looking forward to the writeup

@Last2thirst

 Haha yeah certainly reasons to like OU!

@buceye9

Doubtful. Seeing 5/5.5 this morning already. Would love 7’s though hope you’re right!

Oklahoma qb Mateer had a record passing night (30/37, 392 yds) vs a cupcake and Michigan D allowed  217 yds passing to an Idaho qb. Think it was the wolv defensive performance that moved this spread.

On a good note Sooners D gave up 4.5 per carry rushing and were 0-2 in turnovers. 

Good luck HN.  

@UNIMAN

They also rotated 31 defensive players which is unlikely to happen this week.  I get the whole freshman QB on the road angle and honestly that’s enough for OU backers to like them this week. Stylistically like Michigan this week!

Michigan @ Oklahoma 

Loved what I saw from Underwood last week regardless of opponent. Some of the throws he made on the run and across his body (not ideal btw) were insane for any QB at this level let alone a freshman. Got through his reads, delivered on time and accurate balls most of the night. Something I saw maybe 0 times in 2024. The threat of a pass is a huge boost to assist the run game. Haynes was awesome I think that you'll see Michigan really lean on the running backs here (OU gave up 4.5 ypc to Ill St) in Underwoods first road start. Good depth with Marshall to help keep him fresh. Really like the OU defensive front so Michigan will have their hands full up front for sure but again Bryces ability to move around and deliver it accurately is key.

Other side of things is where I like this game the most. Michigan did lose some very important pieces from the line with Grant and Graham going top 15 in the draft. Also lost Josiah Stewart on the edge. Will Johnson as well, but he didn't play the back half of the season anyway and Michigans defense close the seasons final 3 games as the #1 defense in the country with games against OSU, Alabama, and NW. One of those without all the aforementioned players. The line may have lost its star power but the depth is significantly improved. OU apparently has some concerns about OL quality and overall health coming into this game which is a big deal. The Michigan front held NM to just 1.9 yards per carry last week, and were top 10 in this category last season giving up 3.1 ypc. Making an offense one dimensional is where Wink and this defense really tighten their grip. The one thing that concerns me most is extension of the run game with swing passes to the RB's or quick bubble screens which I dont think Michigan has defended particularly well in the past and OU has good speed on the outside. I'm probably one of the few that was never aboard the John Mateer hype train this offseason. Obviously his supporting cast is completely different this year in Norman, but all I can do is work with the data I have here. Last season 20 of his 29 TD passses were against the 5 worst teams on his schedule. Against the best 4 his completion % was significantly lower and 4:4 TD/INT splits. He went up against ONE top 50 defense all year. Oddly enough there was a common opponent in 2024 with Fresno St and Mateers QBR was essentially the same as Davis Warrens against them (again yes i know personnel this year is way diff). OU averaged just 3.2 ypc last week vs Illinois State and the Michigan front will be one of the best they see all year if not the best. I think Mateer is going to need to create and extend plays if/when coverages break down. He's certainly capable of this, but again his rushing/overall numbers against the 'better' defensive teams weren't great and this is by far the best defense he will have faced. 

In the end, I think this is a big spot for both QB's for very different reasons. I think Michigan will be able to run the ball a little more effectively to take the pressure off. This is a team that is no stranger to a tough road environment so not overly worried there. Sherrone is an Oklahoma alum, and feel pretty good about him having this one circled for a long time. Michigan rotated 31 guys on defense in week 1 which we won't see here - Barham out for the first half is brutal but fortunately the depth is good at the position and he will be fresh for the 2H. I think the same can be said about OU defensively rotating a bunch of young guys who we probably won't see in this game so the rush yards given up to Ill St may be a bit of an outlier. I'm interested to see how Michigan handles the quick screens and RB's out of the backfield as I think Wink's defense tends to over pursue and get caught at times. Have to avoid the big plays & use the same strategy as against teams like OSU here. Keep it in front of you, make Mateer snap it a ton and drive the whole field. Bend don't break defense this week. If Bryce plays a mistake free game I think Michigan wins, but if the freshman nerves come out in Norman then this certainly swings the other way. Either way, in the trenches, I like Michigan to be able to stay within the 6.5 here. Very good numbers under the lights as a team & 4-1 ATS as an away dog and 3 outright wins in the past 5 years. Venebles at OU is 3-10 ATS in games with spreads < 7 pts. 

Tight game that could go either way - i'll take the 6.5 with Michigan

@HockeyNight11

 Very good post  and analysis..thx

Superb first description.....I want to bet the UNDER now....or Michigan ML

I am going to watch the line carefully. Yes, Michigan can win if they disrupt Mateer/short passes...and Underwood/run game works together....this game sounds like it will be close so why not a ML bet small or on parlays 

Thanks HockeyNight  ....minutia details here are exceptional to make a decision and a punt on this. It no fun betting faves that have a lot of mystery with their team. What sold me is the Mateer vs stiff competition and I say, there are 3-4 levels of competition fierceness in college football.

No icebergs upstream!

@buceye9

 wouldn’t Michigan backers want more points to take Michigan as a dog?

@HockeyNight11

 Great write ups. Just want to make sure I haven’t overlooked the prop bet for this week? And congrats on the 1st catch cover on week 1!

I wonder what Klein’s receiving yards will be. I’m sure they raise it but haven’t seen it out yet.

@MrFreedo

 Same for me, I only have the TD prop for him which is +350

Are you worried about the uncertainty of Underwood’s performance on the road. Feels like Oklahoma or pass. 

Reminds me of Manning last week at the Shoe, all the pressure is squarely on Underwood, not Oklahoma. Whatever NIL money Michigan funneled his way, that comes with the burden of expectation. The Sooners can play loose, but Underwood has to prove he can handle the stage against a defense that will test every mistake.

This game will be on my TV for sure. 

@DrGame

Could be wrong in the end but I am not concerned. Was blown away with his command of the offense from the first snap. Again I get it was New Mexico and this is a different level against a very good defensive coach but the kid just has every tool you could ask for. I think he, today, can make the throws that only a handful of players in CFB can make. He’s that good. 

But I’m also not going to argue against fading a freshman QB in his first big road start. He certainly could hit a wall & have trouble with more complex defensive schemes but I’m rolling with him - 6.5 is a lot of points in what I expect to be a lower scoring game even if he’s struggling. 

No I think they learned quick lol that Klein prop was a laugher. Had a few alts as well! I am 100% convinced if you focus on a few teams you can find some player props in CFB that aren’t even close to a good line. Too many teams and the books all love to be able to say they offer the widest variety of betting options… then they make some big mistakes. The underwood UNDER rush yards was another great one last week. Was like 43.5 and there’s zero reason to run him. Think he finished at -5. 

@Last2thirst