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Any Serious CFB Computer Analysis Poeple Out There

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I do a lot of computer analysis of games; both prior to the games and then after each week. I visit a lot of great sites with some interesting concepts... NOTE: I have not seen, nor do I think that there even exists, a way to profitably use a computer to cap games... I do however, think that it can discover potential plays that might be overlooked AND it can raise some red flags on plays that you might be considering... and that is not all bad...
 
One of those sites in fact is a computer analysis of other sites that use some fomr of computer analysis to project their plays for each week.. in essence it is a computer's analysis of other computer's analysis...geez YGBSM right? (you gotta be shitting me)
 
It is a non commercial site and it is mostly for nerds... so I am hoping covers will have no problem with my posting link here...
 
 
 
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Posted: #2

Now I want to share some interesting results from a few other computer analysis sites.

Computer Results for Week 1 Conference Ratings

Rank                            W  L    Rating

1  Southeastern           11 1     1.890

2  Big 12                     10 2     1.864

3  Pac 10                     6   2     1.798

4  ACC                        4   6     1.734

5  Big 10                     10 1     1.722

6  Big East                  5   1     1.701

7  Mountain West       6   2     1.612

8  Conf USA               6   2     1.369

9  WAC                       3   4     1.336

10  MidAmer              3  10    1.246

11 Sun Belt                 3   5     1.240

 
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Posted: #3
you need a computer to figure that out. i could do it the oldfashioned way and look at a paper
 
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Last Weeks
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS
1   9/3 North Texas (114)       20 at Ball St (118)           10  0.350
2   9/5 BYU ( 10)               14 vs Oklahoma (  7)          13  0.432
3   9/5 Baylor ( 38)            24 at Wake Forest ( 52)       21  0.543
4   9/6 Colorado St ( 56)       23 at Colorado ( 76)          17  0.566
5   9/5 Idaho (130)             21 at New Mexico St (161)      6  0.588
6   9/7 Miami FL ( 20)          38 at Florida St ( 40)        34  0.589
7   9/3 Bowling Green ( 64)     31    Troy ( 83)              14  0.639
8   9/5 UAB ( 79)               44    Rice ( 97)              24  0.652
9   9/3 Boise St ( 15)          19    Oregon ( 28)             8  0.682
10   9/7 Cincinnati ( 14)        47 at Rutgers ( 63)           15  0.685
 
 
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Posted: #5
Games:                          40
Average Score:                34.05  13.65
Home Team:                    21-15  58.333
Home Score:                   28.97  19.22
Higher Win Percentage:    36-19  65.455
Larger Margin of Victory:   72-51  58.537
 
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Max Margin:
1   9/5 Tennessee ( 37)         63    W Kentucky (148)         7
2   9/5 USC (  2)               56    San Jose St (109)        3
3   9/5 Nebraska ( 19)          49    FL Atlantic ( 95)        3

Max Total:
1   9/5 Purdue ( 59)            52    Toledo (127)            31
2   9/5 Texas (  3)             59    ULM (106)               20
3   9/7 Miami FL ( 20)          38 at Florida St ( 40)        34

Min Total:
1   9/3 South Carolina ( 25)     7 at NC State ( 61)           3
2   9/5 Arizona ( 27)           19    C Michigan ( 91)         6
3   9/5 BYU ( 10)               14 vs Oklahoma (  7)          13
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by jmb9:

you need a computer to figure that out. i could do it the oldfashioned way and look at a paper
this might not be of interest to you then
 
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Posted: #8
Love the research, Bro. Would probably track conferences against the spread as well. I know OSU, Minn and Iowa all won, but it wasn't pretty.
 
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Posted: #9
KSP...Once the data is entered there is no limit to the reports you can generate.... I am retired and have more time than sense... and being a former engineer; I just could not help myself
 
That prediction trakker site is the real deal though... It literally has every capper known to man that uses any form of computer analysis to pick plays... Names that are household names in the world of sports handicapping.... known and used by most cappers who still has have a bankroll anyway
 
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Posted: #10
Like it.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by jmb9:

you need a computer to figure that out. i could do it the oldfashioned way and look at a paper
just curious jmb9, do you not ever use sagarin, dunkel, harmon, covers or massey for opinions? not pimpin, really just curious
 
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Posted: #12
Whas up Fader.  I agree with you completely.  You can not just use a computer solely to cap a game.  However, it can be very useful.  I developed a program in Excel that combines points for and against, pass yds for, pass yds against, rush yds for, rush yds against, turnovers, time of possession, strength of opponents, etc.  I use all this information to compute a "score prediction" factoring in points per yards of offense and points per yard of defense, points from turnovers, etc.  I come up with multiple score possibilities for a game and take the average.  I also factor in non-statistical variables such as weather, injuries, motivation, hype, etc.  I use this final predictive score to determine what I feel a team's margin of victory will be, and make my wager based on that.  I cannot say that this system is perfect.  I did it for several weeks last season (posted) and many weeks it hit many games within a few points of eachother, but some were also way off.  I'll be trusting it again this week because last season it went 12 - 3 ATS, posted.  GL Atl!!
 
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Posted: #13
JR thanks
 
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Posted: #14
I developed a system, based solely on math, for College Basketball.  It worked beautifully for a number of years.  Admittedly, the last two years have not been so great.  I'm gonna give it one more season before I throw it on the trash heap
 
The problem with a computer/math system in College Football is that the few number of games does not provide a large enough sample to generate good mathematical trends.  All of the math/computer guys from the best to the worst are kidding themselves.  At least the stat pool during the course of a College Basketball season is a bit better once you get past ten games.  Trends have a chance to play out and be more reliable.
 
I've never seen a good math system in CFB.  Due to the shortness of the season, I don't believe I ever will.
 
BOL 
 
 
 
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Posted: #15
Swizz... That's interesting; I did too, in fact, I think it works better in college hoops than football
 
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swizz... you would be amazed at how well a properly done performance rating chart can predict outcomes based on only 4 or 5 games... from October to the end of the year last year my chart was pretty dead on...
 
still haven't started putting it together yet, but can't be used very effectively until we get at least 2 weeks in the bag...
 
good stuff, Atl...
 
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Posted: #17

hopefully that site is accurate... it thinks i will go 7-1 this week... has me losing So Miss by a couple points...

it also thinks i am smart to stay away from Tx Tech, Tulsa and Wazzou, but that i should get on TCU and Boise...

both this computer system and another one i've seen think Ore St will smash UNLV pretty good...

 

 
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ICE, if you just play the RAW data, it hits about 57% ATS, but if you ad judgement to the list, you should hit close to 70% over time...I use that site religiously,  You make another good point... the "wave offs" are a pretty dammed important part of using that site.
 
I also have written an application that is actually a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster that I originally wrote for ncaa basketball... I have been geeking it up some for ncaa college football and liking the results.. not ready to publish data yet.. but I am optimistic...
 
7-1 can happen and I hope you get that this week
 
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Posted: #19
Good stuff, always up for nerdy stuff!!
 
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Posted: #20
All this computer talk

Love it....I'm going to have to check out that site in detail when I get time.
 
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Posted: #21
[Quote: Originally Posted by AtlFader]
I do a lot of computer analysis of games; both prior to the games and then after each week. I visit a lot of great sites with some interesting concepts... NOTE: I have not seen, nor do I think that there even exists, a way to profitably use a computer to cap games... I do however, think that it can discover potential plays that might be overlooked AND it can raise some red flags on plays that you might be considering... and that is not all bad...
 
One of those sites in fact is a computer analysis of other sites that use some fomr of computer analysis to project their plays for each week.. in essence it is a computer's analysis of other computer's analysis...geez YGBSM right? (you gotta be shitting me)
 
It is a non commercial site and it is mostly for nerds... so I am hoping covers will have no problem with my posting link here...
 
 

[/Quote

Go to collegefootballpoll.com and hit picks/scores and scroll down. You will see the odds and the ones in red are the computers pick for the underdogg to win! They called Missouri, S. Car, Buffalo! Scroll back up and hit week two! There is alot of info and computer analyisis on this site!

 
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Posted: #22
Computer Analysis: That's all we do. Just joined so go easy... :) Anyway, we have 6 years of underdog money lines archived in a database, for all the major sports. We sort by ML range, home/away, conference/league, month, day of the week, etc. Our XL program finds the highest hitting ranges over the past 6 years... For EXAMPLE: Monday road CFB dogs in September from +125 to +225 were 4-1 outright since 2004. Now of course, they're 6-1, after Cincy blew out Rutgers and Miami beat FSU. So both upsets came as no suprise to us. Sorry to post that data after the fact, like I said, just joined... I'll post plenty of data nuggets like that for upcoming weeks if I see a situation that leaps out...
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by chino1922:

Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

I do a lot of computer analysis of games; both prior to the games and then after each week. I visit a lot of great sites with some interesting concepts... NOTE: I have not seen, nor do I think that there even exists, a way to profitably use a computer to cap games... I do however, think that it can discover potential plays that might be overlooked AND it can raise some red flags on plays that you might be considering... and that is not all bad...
 
One of those sites in fact is a computer analysis of other sites that use some fomr of computer analysis to project their plays for each week.. in essence it is a computer's analysis of other computer's analysis...geez YGBSM right? (you gotta be shitting me)
 
It is a non commercial site and it is mostly for nerds... so I am hoping covers will have no problem with my posting link here...
 
 

[/Quote

Go to collegefootballpoll.com and hit picks/scores and scroll down. You will see the odds and the ones in red are the computers pick for the underdogg to win! They called Missouri, S. Car, Buffalo! Scroll back up and hit week two! There is alot of info and computer analyisis on this site!

I like that site and visit it every week... they had a very bad week last week .375% ATS... but I always look at their stuff... their number in fact is part of the trakker indicator... and thats why I like that site so much.. IT HAS EVERY KNOWN COMPUTER PICKING SYSTIME IN THE FREE WORLD on there... and they have the historically scores for each one of them

In other words.... the trakker site has EVERYTHING, so why not just go there first?

Thanks for the post, and for bringing that to the forum's attention

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by SPSystems:

Computer Analysis: That's all we do. Just joined so go easy... :) Anyway, we have 6 years of underdog money lines archived in a database, for all the major sports. We sort by ML range, home/away, conference/league, month, day of the week, etc. Our XL program finds the highest hitting ranges over the past 6 years... For EXAMPLE: Monday road CFB dogs in September from +125 to +225 were 4-1 outright since 2004. Now of course, they're 6-1, after Cincy blew out Rutgers and Miami beat FSU. So both upsets came as no suprise to us. Sorry to post that data after the fact, like I said, just joined... I'll post plenty of data nuggets like that for upcoming weeks if I see a situation that leaps out...
Please do post that stuff.... Always good to get those "nuggets"
 
 
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Posted: #25
Here are the results of my personal compter system for this week. First the Dogs; and note the % is a "confidence" factor... I sort highest confidence to lowest... and I rarely ever go below a 60% factor, with a few exceptions... Please add your own logic to these ok?
 
Vanderbilt +14.5     20    Covers by 7.5
LSU                        27    66.7% Confidence
 
Air Force +4.5        24   Covers by 5.5
Minnesota               23   64.9% Confidence
 
Tulsa                       35   63.5% Confidence
New Mexico +17.5  23   Covers by 5.5
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