It just so happens that 80% is about the highest number you see real good cappers & sports experts pick as winning plays SU without a spread... think about that for a minute... the best of the best of the best in all sports that I have researched (ncaa & pro basketball and football), can only pick 80% stright up.... so for any system to get close to that ATS is approaching a violation in the laws of gravity
You wil do very well if you can be in 65%+ neighborhood, and I believe that is very attainable... I know there are people on here that hit or slightly excede that and I go on streaks that hit that a few times a year... so that should be our target....
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Just a quick obeservation on that number 80%
It just so happens that 80% is about the highest number you see real good cappers & sports experts pick as winning plays SU without a spread... think about that for a minute... the best of the best of the best in all sports that I have researched (ncaa & pro basketball and football), can only pick 80% stright up.... so for any system to get close to that ATS is approaching a violation in the laws of gravity
You wil do very well if you can be in 65%+ neighborhood, and I believe that is very attainable... I know there are people on here that hit or slightly excede that and I go on streaks that hit that a few times a year... so that should be our target....
I too love this type of stuff. Not as a sole source but like mentioned earlier as a narrowing factor. I use Sargin's along with my own additional numbers to start my week off. Then naturally have to do my research about injuries and other factors like teams with new players making big strides. Last year was my most successfull season ever as I won 66% on my college football games. This is documented on my other forum. I tried the same formula I was using with NFL but it failed miserably.
The biggest advantage for me was giving me the confidence to play the underdog. In the past like most beginners I relied too much on playing a favorite because afterall they were supposed to win right. Once I started with the computer generator stuff it made those underdogs with real shots at not only the cover but the outright win much more clear.
Taking the bias factor out is the biggest advancement any capper can do to improve his/her performance and the computer can help with that.
This was a great post and I hope it continues and expands.
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I too love this type of stuff. Not as a sole source but like mentioned earlier as a narrowing factor. I use Sargin's along with my own additional numbers to start my week off. Then naturally have to do my research about injuries and other factors like teams with new players making big strides. Last year was my most successfull season ever as I won 66% on my college football games. This is documented on my other forum. I tried the same formula I was using with NFL but it failed miserably.
The biggest advantage for me was giving me the confidence to play the underdog. In the past like most beginners I relied too much on playing a favorite because afterall they were supposed to win right. Once I started with the computer generator stuff it made those underdogs with real shots at not only the cover but the outright win much more clear.
Taking the bias factor out is the biggest advancement any capper can do to improve his/her performance and the computer can help with that.
This was a great post and I hope it continues and expands.
Regarding the 80% number. That could be high, but coming from someone who does his main work in the market and used to teach others, there are certain things that I've discovered that will never see the light of day. Its too lucrative to share with anyone. I haven't found anything like that as far as sports handicapping but if I did there is no way I would put it up in any public forum. What would the monetary value on an 80% system be? It would be too much work to even implement that system. You would have to never bet limits(stay off the radar) and you would probably be best off having different runners place parlay bets in Vegas. No way could you keep an account be allowed to continue to bet by any bookie/internet site.
gl all
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Regarding the 80% number. That could be high, but coming from someone who does his main work in the market and used to teach others, there are certain things that I've discovered that will never see the light of day. Its too lucrative to share with anyone. I haven't found anything like that as far as sports handicapping but if I did there is no way I would put it up in any public forum. What would the monetary value on an 80% system be? It would be too much work to even implement that system. You would have to never bet limits(stay off the radar) and you would probably be best off having different runners place parlay bets in Vegas. No way could you keep an account be allowed to continue to bet by any bookie/internet site.
I started building a "math model" for college football a couple years ago.It has become an obsession for me. I've probably got about 400-500 hours in the damn thing. It is designed to pick ATS later in the season, and will pick some winners. Right now I'm tinkering with it and trying to adjust it to pick early in the year. 7-5 so far this year.
Love using the computer to handicap. Gotta be careful though. I find myself ignoring things like Wisconsin's team having the swine flu.
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I started building a "math model" for college football a couple years ago.It has become an obsession for me. I've probably got about 400-500 hours in the damn thing. It is designed to pick ATS later in the season, and will pick some winners. Right now I'm tinkering with it and trying to adjust it to pick early in the year. 7-5 so far this year.
Love using the computer to handicap. Gotta be careful though. I find myself ignoring things like Wisconsin's team having the swine flu.
I too love this type of stuff. Not as a sole source but like mentioned earlier as a narrowing factor. I use Sargin's along with my own additional numbers to start my week off. Then naturally have to do my research about injuries and other factors like teams with new players making big strides. Last year was my most successfull season ever as I won 66% on my college football games. This is documented on my other forum. I tried the same formula I was using with NFL but it failed miserably.
The biggest advantage for me was giving me the confidence to play the underdog. In the past like most beginners I relied too much on playing a favorite because afterall they were supposed to win right. Once I started with the computer generator stuff it made those underdogs with real shots at not only the cover but the outright win much more clear.
Taking the bias factor out is the biggest advancement any capper can do to improve his/her performance and the computer can help with that.
This was a great post and I hope it continues and expands.
I still play alot of favs too.... someone in this forum once made a statement that always sticks in my mind. When you play the fav, the fav first has to win the game; then cover the spread. Jut look at how many favs get beat SU? That being said; I did go 3-0 yesterday up 15 UNITS. IT WAS A VERY VERY GOOD DAY
All 3 plays were big FAVS... but I culled those 3 out of a list of 14 favs that I was considering. I did have a dog list and if I had not found my 3 plays on the fav list, I would have played some. I had UL Lafayette on my list and they won SU.
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Quote Originally Posted by lilwal66:
I too love this type of stuff. Not as a sole source but like mentioned earlier as a narrowing factor. I use Sargin's along with my own additional numbers to start my week off. Then naturally have to do my research about injuries and other factors like teams with new players making big strides. Last year was my most successfull season ever as I won 66% on my college football games. This is documented on my other forum. I tried the same formula I was using with NFL but it failed miserably.
The biggest advantage for me was giving me the confidence to play the underdog. In the past like most beginners I relied too much on playing a favorite because afterall they were supposed to win right. Once I started with the computer generator stuff it made those underdogs with real shots at not only the cover but the outright win much more clear.
Taking the bias factor out is the biggest advancement any capper can do to improve his/her performance and the computer can help with that.
This was a great post and I hope it continues and expands.
I still play alot of favs too.... someone in this forum once made a statement that always sticks in my mind. When you play the fav, the fav first has to win the game; then cover the spread. Jut look at how many favs get beat SU? That being said; I did go 3-0 yesterday up 15 UNITS. IT WAS A VERY VERY GOOD DAY
All 3 plays were big FAVS... but I culled those 3 out of a list of 14 favs that I was considering. I did have a dog list and if I had not found my 3 plays on the fav list, I would have played some. I had UL Lafayette on my list and they won SU.
Just a follow up with the results from Week 2 computer selections. The computer finished exactly 7-7 ATS 50%. I am going to post Week 3 computer selections shortly. I expect the computer to do better this week and still better next week. It is just the nature of computerized systems. Historically this system is plus 60%
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Just a follow up with the results from Week 2 computer selections. The computer finished exactly 7-7 ATS 50%. I am going to post Week 3 computer selections shortly. I expect the computer to do better this week and still better next week. It is just the nature of computerized systems. Historically this system is plus 60%
I have been contemplating this approach this since last year but staying employed took up way too much time this year. The engineering world is tough these days.
quick question...what does the net column represent?
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I have been contemplating this approach this since last year but staying employed took up way too much time this year. The engineering world is tough these days.
quick question...what does the net column represent?
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