Good stuff. The best thing about a computer/math system is that it takes out human biases and dislikes. So many gamblers fall into traps because they are fans of a team first and wagerers second. I'm a huge fan of college football/basketball, but I'm a bigger fan of my money. Stat based systems take out all of the emotion that goes in to making bad picks. You just have to be disciplined enough to trust your system and not deviate.
While playing a computer system definately takes emotion out of making picks, fortunately, it does not take the emotion out of the game. Once the ball is kicked/tipped off, the juice flows evenly for all.
Best of luck to all players.
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Good stuff. The best thing about a computer/math system is that it takes out human biases and dislikes. So many gamblers fall into traps because they are fans of a team first and wagerers second. I'm a huge fan of college football/basketball, but I'm a bigger fan of my money. Stat based systems take out all of the emotion that goes in to making bad picks. You just have to be disciplined enough to trust your system and not deviate.
While playing a computer system definately takes emotion out of making picks, fortunately, it does not take the emotion out of the game. Once the ball is kicked/tipped off, the juice flows evenly for all.
Hey, I swear to God to you, before COMPUTERS, when we had to handicap from papers, I used to get the Sportsform every week. Well, one time a guy published a mathematical system in there and I swear, I made money using it! Didnt solely base EVERYTHING on the stats but it was a base point and then a kinda tweaked it with some more numbers and the human element, weather and so on. I swear I used it for a solid two years. Unfortunately,right after that I had some bad luck personally and I actually lost all the data. I kick myself in the ass to this day. It was the BEST system I have EVER heard of to this day.
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Hey, I swear to God to you, before COMPUTERS, when we had to handicap from papers, I used to get the Sportsform every week. Well, one time a guy published a mathematical system in there and I swear, I made money using it! Didnt solely base EVERYTHING on the stats but it was a base point and then a kinda tweaked it with some more numbers and the human element, weather and so on. I swear I used it for a solid two years. Unfortunately,right after that I had some bad luck personally and I actually lost all the data. I kick myself in the ass to this day. It was the BEST system I have EVER heard of to this day.
I do a lot less statistics crunching on football than I do MLB, but I still dabble.
A general thought:
I dont like trends unless they can be supported with a logical reason for why they are happening. Humans look for patterns in randomness, and computers only make that possible to an exponential factor. The key is being able to differentiate between random patterns and stats that actually mean something.
What wins football games? Simply put - more points scored than you give up. So for me - that is where I start - with points. Yards dont mean anything if you dont get points. So I try to look at what is the biggest determinant of points, and then go from there to decide if a matchup is favorable to a certain result.
I generally dont believe you can have "power ratings" and do well long term - I think if you are going to go with something it has to be highly correlated to points and point differential. Finding those factors are the hard part....
Anyway, good thread.
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AtlFader - Great thread.
I do a lot less statistics crunching on football than I do MLB, but I still dabble.
A general thought:
I dont like trends unless they can be supported with a logical reason for why they are happening. Humans look for patterns in randomness, and computers only make that possible to an exponential factor. The key is being able to differentiate between random patterns and stats that actually mean something.
What wins football games? Simply put - more points scored than you give up. So for me - that is where I start - with points. Yards dont mean anything if you dont get points. So I try to look at what is the biggest determinant of points, and then go from there to decide if a matchup is favorable to a certain result.
I generally dont believe you can have "power ratings" and do well long term - I think if you are going to go with something it has to be highly correlated to points and point differential. Finding those factors are the hard part....
that is part of the program, it projects scores based on a range of criteria.... more complicated than I want to get into here.... Everything about the program is designed to do just that... predict a score for each side.... based on that, we add the line and then the play is determined... btw... by week 4 or so, the totals can get very righteous with this system....
I want to be real clear here... THOSE ARE NOT NECESSARILY MY PLAYS... They are what the computer liked....
I am like you on that BYU and BSU.... But I liked them before computer gave me any output.... in fact, I am hitting both hard, very very hard... IF I can find a 3rd,might even also add a 3 teamer
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that is part of the program, it projects scores based on a range of criteria.... more complicated than I want to get into here.... Everything about the program is designed to do just that... predict a score for each side.... based on that, we add the line and then the play is determined... btw... by week 4 or so, the totals can get very righteous with this system....
I want to be real clear here... THOSE ARE NOT NECESSARILY MY PLAYS... They are what the computer liked....
I am like you on that BYU and BSU.... But I liked them before computer gave me any output.... in fact, I am hitting both hard, very very hard... IF I can find a 3rd,might even also add a 3 teamer
There has to be a system out there that hits 80+%. Just think about it, if you found a system with that kind of output would you share it with anyone? Hell no! You would burn the data and do your best to never let anyone know what you had.
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There has to be a system out there that hits 80+%. Just think about it, if you found a system with that kind of output would you share it with anyone? Hell no! You would burn the data and do your best to never let anyone know what you had.
I have just started using a computer analysis this year for college football. I have used one in the past few years for college basketball but I was interested to see how it would perform for college football. It's based entirely on points scored and points allowed (against D1 schools only) and combines previous years results with more emphasis on more recent games.
The biggest problem I have run into is suprise teams from the year before. Two examples from this year are Ball State and Buffalo. Since both teams differentiated from their norm last year, I have basically removed them from any system bet I will make until the middle of the season until I can get new numbers on them.
The only other difference I have is with my basketball formula, it includes stats from kenpom.com such as tempo, offense and defensive effiency, etc. If someone could make a football version of his systems, I think it would be a great tool to use!
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I have just started using a computer analysis this year for college football. I have used one in the past few years for college basketball but I was interested to see how it would perform for college football. It's based entirely on points scored and points allowed (against D1 schools only) and combines previous years results with more emphasis on more recent games.
The biggest problem I have run into is suprise teams from the year before. Two examples from this year are Ball State and Buffalo. Since both teams differentiated from their norm last year, I have basically removed them from any system bet I will make until the middle of the season until I can get new numbers on them.
The only other difference I have is with my basketball formula, it includes stats from kenpom.com such as tempo, offense and defensive effiency, etc. If someone could make a football version of his systems, I think it would be a great tool to use!
aro, this football system this guy had was similar, basing it on Pt Diff, home and away,adding the home field or subtracting and so on. I just cant remember the EXACT formula. I would love to sit down with somebody and try to jog my memory ( maybe I should go to a hypnotist) lol. Oh, and power pts were also included. Then I would multiply some number by another......I just cant remember. I swear to God, this thing worked WELL! This sucks that I lost the info.
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aro, this football system this guy had was similar, basing it on Pt Diff, home and away,adding the home field or subtracting and so on. I just cant remember the EXACT formula. I would love to sit down with somebody and try to jog my memory ( maybe I should go to a hypnotist) lol. Oh, and power pts were also included. Then I would multiply some number by another......I just cant remember. I swear to God, this thing worked WELL! This sucks that I lost the info.
There has to
be a system out there that hits 80+%. Just think about it, if you found
a system with that kind of output would you share it with anyone? Hell
no! You would burn the data and do your best to never let anyone know
what you had.
Asz, that is true, but if get jammed up and then FORGET the system........your fucked! I can tell you that, first hand.
0
Posted: 9/9/2009 4:29:00 PM
There has to
be a system out there that hits 80+%. Just think about it, if you found
a system with that kind of output would you share it with anyone? Hell
no! You would burn the data and do your best to never let anyone know
what you had.
Asz, that is true, but if get jammed up and then FORGET the system........your fucked! I can tell you that, first hand.
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... but it sure might put you onto a play you had not looked at before or wave you off on one... 
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