2025 NCAA FB Futures/RSW Discussion

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 6/26/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Buffalo to win MAC 7.5/1 1.33u to win 9.98u
UTSA to win AAC +750 1.33u to win 9.98u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +750 + Utah +700 318/1 .1 u to win 31.8u

Conference RR Lotto: 5's, 4's, 3's
1. UTSA 2. Liberty 3. Buffalo 4. JMU 5. Fresno State 6. Utah

Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Tulane under 8.5 +110 (MGM)
Washington State under 5.5 -104 (FD)
Akron under 4.5 -115 (MGM)
New Mexico State under 4.5 +120 (DK)
California under 5.5 +120 (MGM)
Marshall under 5.5 -110 (B365)
Colorado under 6.5 -140 (B365)
Jacksonville State under 6.5 -140 (DK)
Arkansas State under 5.5 -155 (CZR)
San Diego State over 4.5 -105 (DK)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 0:
Fresno State +14.5 (FD)

Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)
Northwestern +7.5 (FD) + NW +7 (CZR) ADDED 1/2 unit here.
Michigan -34.5 (CZR)
Buffalo +18.5 (CZR)
GOY: UGA -6.5 vs Tennessee (wk 3)
GOY: Washington -10.5 vs Wazzu (wk 4)

"Refreshing the post" so to speak...pertaining to San Diego State. My thoughts early would have taken under at 6.5. I thought the RSW would be 5.5 which I think is a fair number. we have a number posted at 4.5 juiced under, but I can totally see offensive turn around in year two for Sean Lewis. Re-analyzing the schedule this group is very capable of plucking off Wazzu or Cal and the road trip to NIU is certainly winnable. The first two conference games hosting CSU and @ Nevada provide opportunities for wins. Very fortunate to host wyoming, as you do not want to play in laradise in November...woof. @ Hawaii is winnable and this bunch should be locked in on making a bowl game at this point in the season. Boise and Jose will be tough, but Jose is not out of the question as a home spot where they could be in that game late. I see 9 winnable games and this group could be favored in 6-7. With a win total this low, an improving team, and a group that will have plenty of shots on goal, this group should have plenty of chances to rack up the wins. The defense looks ready to go with 10 starters back on D and a much more improved secondary. Special teams operation and coverage units are shored up okay. We should see a massive uptick in quarterback play this year, which was such a crutch for this team last season. You have come to know and love me as a regular season win "UNDER" bettor, but this number appears too low, and so for the first time in 2025, I am playing OVER a win total. SDSU over 4.5 -105, DK.

Here were my thoughts way back in april when I posted about SDSU before we had win total numbers. 

RSW Analysis: You could argue that no MWC team had worse quarterback play than the Aztecs last season as quarterbacks combined to throw for just 206 yards per game and 15 total touchdowns while taking 33 sacks. The bright spot was RB. M. Cooper who is gone, and the RB room will need to be shored up. Aztecs bring in some Big10 beef to bolster the OL, but will also be relying on FCS transfers to contribute so the OL and how they perform will undoubtedly be important. TWO transfer quarterbacks transfer in and SDSU will certainly be more equipped to run their style of offense. Texas A&M WR transfer Jacob Bostick should contribute immediately in the passing game, and having a dynamic athlete at quarterback will pay dividends. The defense kept SDSU competitive last year and leading sack man Trey White (13 sacks LY) should cause issues in opponents backfields. The defense remains in good shape here. I would not be surprised if SDSU picks off Cal or Wazzu in non-con action and a road trip to NIU is winnable. Conference play sets up okay as well with some winnable road games and catching Colorado State, Wyoming and San Jose St. at home. If the offense takes a big step forward this season, there is no question SDSU could be bowl eligible. This RSW will all depend on how the books perceive not only the Aztecs, but other teams in the league bunched together at the bottom. With only one assured win (FCS Opener) there are many coin flips, which could result in a higher variance season. I could see SDSU open 5-1, or 1-5, depending on how key pieces show up and perform. I would want 6.5 to play under (we wont see that number), but I assume this opens 5.5. Pass for me.

steponaduck on X: ""Refreshing the post" so to speak...pertaining to San Diego State. My thoughts early would have taken under at 6.5. I thought the RSW would be 5.5 which I think is a fair number. we have a number posted at 4.5 juiced under, but I can totally see offensive turn around in year two https://t.co/fUh1YXHM1K" / X

Just checked this thread out. I forget how early you can be. Utah is up to 4.5, how high would you take them?