2025-2026 NCAA FB ( 151 )

Looking at some line moves from monday, now i know some moved from opening lines on monday but these are some that have moved from what they were monday afternoon  

rice was -3.5 now 2.5  total up from 42 to 43

okla st from -13 to -12 total dropped a point also to 54.5

N Texas from -1.5 to -2 

TCU now -7 and total has went up like 3 points from opening 

Wisc has a big move from -7.5 to -10 and total up a pt to 44.5 

oregon total has dropped 4 points from 57.5 to 53.5 

tenn total up 2 pts to 69 

ULL was -3.5 now -2.5 total dropped 3 points from 53 to 50

UCF total has dropped 2 point to 47.5 from 49.5 

Fla st up 2.5 pts to -46 from 43.5 

Buffalo down to 6 from 6.5

N Dame drops from -26.5 to -24.5 and total goes up from 52.5 to 54 

James Madison still -9.5 but total drops 2 points to 46.5 from 48.5

Kansas was -11.5 now -13.5 total went up a point to 56

ark st total went up 2 pts from 54.5 to 56.5 

FIU up to 6.5 now back to -6

Missouri down to -11 from -13.5 

BYU down to -6 from -7 and total went up to 49.5 from 48

fla Miami total drops to 50.5 from 52.5

Indiana up to 4.5 from -4 

baylor drops a half pt to -2

Texas drops from -41 to -39.5 

utep up to -5.5 from -4 

Cal to -12 and total up to 49 from 48

and USC has jumped about 4.5 pts to -18.5

years ago before all the computers books moved their lines based on their action they took, now days when 1 book moves it they almost all do, the days of running around the strip to catch a better line are rare, they all stay connected

What's common the last two years, Utah when facing a strong team were not good at home despite having a strong QB (who was injury prone and a head case for the team)

Zona beat them at home 23 - 10 week 5 last year

TCU beat them at home 13 - 7 week 8 

BYU beat them at home 22 - 21 week 11

*** My perception of them and Whittingham has changed....just like my perception of Dabo has changed.... lets face it, Utah has had a personnel issue and MAYBE this year they get it right from their transfers but no evidence yet to suggest they have vs the better teams in their conference > UCLA does not count and Wyoming is meh

Texas Tech had the #2 best transfer class in all of college football and guess where all of their ample Top 100 recruits went to mostly? Their defense! The perception of TTECH was changing last year (soft offense team turning tougher) and this year it is in full bloom 

I personally think its a coinflip game because of home field and the fact that Utah has seemed to put together a good team but Whittingham has spent 2 seasons trying to figure things out and it appears TTECH is ahead of THAT CURVE with personnel ...otherwise, we would have seen Whittingham's ability in the the recruiting transfer portal ranks

By the way, I like almost every other angle you have discussed and thanks for the point changes in recent post  

Rum  quick question which sport is your strongest ?  

@KillyKill

 same to you brother  

@Howiedee

 college hoops most likely and then Coll FB  

@Last2thirst

 yea but the last 2 years their QB was out the whole year   , I think he finally gave up and they still did well but they were not the same  but I like their team this year to maybe 3 yrs ago   I just think they will be strong at home, my 1st thought on this game was to take Tex Tech, I posted it but always had to remember Utah at home is a very tough team, it would not shock me if tech pulled one out, but I do think they will need help, like some turnovers, and I do think most peoples 1st thought on this game will be Texas Tech and the points , Texas tech been getting headlines, 

@RUM151

 Wow a cappersmall reference. Been a while since that got shut down. Followed you for many years over there and understand the 5 point opening line theory.

If memory serves me correctly the 5pt theory was out before the 2pt conversion in NFL.  I don't think you have change your stance on that however I am curious if it crossed your mind?

@Howiedee

 Funny

@kidstlr

 No....its always been a good cover, but whats even better is the outright win % which is almost as good ...this week only one I seen is Giants I do think they opened at +5.5  and are now 6 why it wasn't bet yet  waiting to see if it goes up...I know Minnesota opened at 5.5 but because of burrows injury, then dropped after minnesota's QB was also injured  , I do like Cinncy there, just not sure I can make it a play with all the injuries which affected the opening lines 

YTD  30-18  

plays in so far 

NC st +3.5  1.5 units

TCU-6  1 unit

Miami Fl-7  1 unit 

Utah -3  1 unit

Rum  who do you like tonight in the Rice Game

@RUM151

 R/151.....here's to a solid winning week 4 buddy.......

BOL with your action tonight......indy

Play # 5  

ok I am going to go with Auburn at Oklahoma, there is no doubt that Oklahoma is a good football team, they have played Michigan at home and beat them, but for some reason I like this Auburn football team, they too are a very good team, and they did beat a decent Baylor team also, and they did it on the road too, so its not like they have not played anyone either, they are avg 6 yds a carry, and their defense is really good so far also, they are in the top 10 vs the run and they have been slacking the QB also, as they are 1 of 16 teams with double digit sacks this year, it could come down to Auburn's secondary, if they can keep Oklahoma to running the football they could even win this game, and Arnold is also going up against his old school here, I am sure he wants nothing more than to do well in this game, and its important that he keeps his streak of 8 games without a INT going here, turnovers will be huge in this game if they happen, I do expect Mateer to try and throw the ball, so this is a huge test for Auburn's pass defense, Mateer does have 3 INT's so far this year, and Auburn has to stay focused on Oklahoma, as Oklahoma has Kent st next, but I have to take 7.5 here -125  I do think they keep this game close, and they have covered 5 of last 7 as a road dog...Oklahoma has lost 5 of last 6 vs conf opponents  

Auburn +7.5 -125  1 unit  

yes many people pay extra juice for important pts, I have seen some in here pay -200 or more to really move the lines and then post really good records when all the plays are -200 or -300 its all up to the gambler and what they feel good about doing, I even like the 6.5 or 7 but at hardrock they are offering just 6.5 or 7.5  

@Howiedee

 well you have 2 teams that are not that good playing, Rice has won on the road when they beat Louisiana earlier this year, and the last 3 times these 2 have played the road team has won the game, and they have played the last 3 years, last year Charlotte won 21-20 as a 4.5 pt road dog, but Rice should have won that game as they started out 10-0 at the Half, but they should have been up more and it cost them as they held Charlotte on the opening drive to a punt, and then Rice drove 84 yds and had a 1st and goal from the 8, ran to the 7 and threw 3 times and got 0 pts so even if they had kicked the fg then they would have won as Charlotte scored a TD with 47 sec's left down 20-14 to win 21-20 so they could have been up 9 there, but it was their 1st drive so I do understand going for it maybe   but it did cost them , they out gained Charlotte 463 to 304 in yardage , in 2023 Rice won at Charlotte 28-7, in 2022 Charlotte won 56-23 at Rice 

Maybe a lean to Rice just based on the fact that the road team has won last 3 in this series and Rice has a road win already  but have not looked at it besides what I just wrote      

gl 151

Thanks pal.  Brooklyn New York ????

Hey Rum could you explain that 5pt spread theory? Vaguely remember reading about it years ago but forgot which side to take etc. Thanks 

@haymo

 its only an NFL play  not college..... I use to track it when I was booking bets , it was a really rare opening number before the 2 point conversion and it was hitting then, but there were not many opening lines of 5 or 5.5 but since 2 pt conversions there are maybe 20 a year or so , it goes by the lines that come out Sunday afternoon or night for NFL the following week, not the lines that some books put out before the season starts....you take the dog and if its a home dog its a double bet, it covers about 67-68% and wins outright at about 63-64%  Jacksonville last week was a play and as we seen they lead the whole game till late, also we still want the best line possible....so when it opens if ya think it will go up ya wait to play it, if it starts to go down then I would bet it right away, but this week its the Giants who opened at 5.5 I felt it would go up so waited, now also I like to make sure it opens at 5 or 5.5 at more than just 1 book, because books have diff lines, and I am looking for a site that tracks most of the books it use to be Vegas Insider, I could go there and click on each game and it would show like 15 books and what they opened at and how it moved each day, and as long as like 3-4 books opened at 5 or 5.5 I would count it as a play, if there was just one or 2 I wouldn't ...Vegas Insider does not show that anymore so I have to go around on Sunday afternoons and see where the lines are from diff books.....now Minnesota opened this week at -5.5 to Cinncy  I personally would have loved to get 5.5 there, but once the Vikings QB was injured it dropped to 3 so I am not counting it because its all due to injury, but personally like Cinn this week   

so that's how it comes about

Giants are +6 now or 6.5 so I am thinking about just grabbing 7  they are the play no matter but as always might as well get the best number, last year it was same hitting well and even the ones that did not cover? the dog was covering going into 4th qtr, and somehow didn't ..its the one thing I have been talking about for years and have never caught shit about because it covers and people see it does, so when you have idiots on here who love to sit and wait for a reason to pounce...lol  and oh man do they... that's one thing they stay quiet on , and maybe are making money..lol  one of the funniest things is its usually the names that never post a play that like to get on someone who does  kind of ODD 

My thoughts years ago was why not open at 4.5 or 6 .....why 5???  just never made sense before the 2 pt conversions  .....people like to get more than 4 and give less than 6  

I do not really like tonight's game but I do think Rice could be a play as I wrote in other thread, both teams find it hard to score as Rice is avg 11 pts a game and Charlotte 7 pts a game, Rice gives up about 300 yds a game while Charlotte gives up about 440 a game,  both are total opposites on pass and run, Ruce avg's about 198 yds rushing while Charlotte avg's about 49 yds a game, and passing Charlotte avg's about 196 and rice about 48.... Charlotte is avg 2 to's a game and Rice 1  Charlotte does not get many turnovers as they are averaging .5 a game   its just not a very good game, but there could be an easy winner or a tight game, line is moving to Charlotte as it is now +1.5  from +3.5 so 2 points it has dropped   I would lean Rice just based on road team seems to win in this series, and Rice has won on the road already   

teasing Rice +4.5/Buff-5.5