Many people have described any long term Win Pct greater than 60% as essentially impossible due to the inherent randomness of any game.
To all on the Forum . There are a lot of " Cliches " ( such as the one above ) , and my all time favorite , " Home field advantage is worth 3 points " prevalent in College Football handicapping that have no basis in fact , yet are widely accepted as fact. This was the most fascinating part of my journey into my study of College Football analytics..... proving them not to be factual. To all who cap CFB . Do not let the cliches and the opinions of others limit your ability to achieve success . Personally verify everything , to the minutest detail ,and use it as a stepping stone to dig deeper.Know the limits of what stats can tell you , and what they can't.
GL
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Many people have described any long term Win Pct greater than 60% as essentially impossible due to the inherent randomness of any game.
To all on the Forum . There are a lot of " Cliches " ( such as the one above ) , and my all time favorite , " Home field advantage is worth 3 points " prevalent in College Football handicapping that have no basis in fact , yet are widely accepted as fact. This was the most fascinating part of my journey into my study of College Football analytics..... proving them not to be factual. To all who cap CFB . Do not let the cliches and the opinions of others limit your ability to achieve success . Personally verify everything , to the minutest detail ,and use it as a stepping stone to dig deeper.Know the limits of what stats can tell you , and what they can't.
Im sorry to hear that............Been reading all your offseason stuff and looked forward to you hitting your goal or coming close and having another great season.........Good luck this season bud.
Mike thanks again for your interest. I'm also looking forward to the challenge. Normally for me , weeks 1 - 3 offer a huge challenge to find quality selections to wager on. The reason I'm excited about this year is in Week 1 , I have 2 "high WP" wagers available. The downside is that I will have 170 % of my total B.R. at risk on the first week of the season. While this is not unusual for me , it does make things very interesting. The table below illustrates this and also why it is so important to focus on what I'm doing.
Class............... Win Prob..............% of B.R. at risk
Im sorry to hear that............Been reading all your offseason stuff and looked forward to you hitting your goal or coming close and having another great season.........Good luck this season bud.
Mike thanks again for your interest. I'm also looking forward to the challenge. Normally for me , weeks 1 - 3 offer a huge challenge to find quality selections to wager on. The reason I'm excited about this year is in Week 1 , I have 2 "high WP" wagers available. The downside is that I will have 170 % of my total B.R. at risk on the first week of the season. While this is not unusual for me , it does make things very interesting. The table below illustrates this and also why it is so important to focus on what I'm doing.
Class............... Win Prob..............% of B.R. at risk
Mike thanks again for your interest. I'm also looking forward to the challenge. Normally for me , weeks 1 - 3 offer a huge challenge to find quality selections to wager on. The reason I'm excited about this year is in Week 1 , I have 2 "high WP" wagers available. The downside is that I will have 170 % of my total B.R. at risk on the first week of the season. While this is not unusual for me , it does make things very interesting. The table below illustrates this and also why it is so important to focus on what I'm doing.
Class............... Win Prob..............% of B.R. at risk
My " edge " in this process is that the WP's and the capping methodology used have been validated in over 100 trials between 2008 and present day, and confirm the posted win probabilities.
Good Luck , Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Mike thanks again for your interest. I'm also looking forward to the challenge. Normally for me , weeks 1 - 3 offer a huge challenge to find quality selections to wager on. The reason I'm excited about this year is in Week 1 , I have 2 "high WP" wagers available. The downside is that I will have 170 % of my total B.R. at risk on the first week of the season. While this is not unusual for me , it does make things very interesting. The table below illustrates this and also why it is so important to focus on what I'm doing.
Class............... Win Prob..............% of B.R. at risk
My " edge " in this process is that the WP's and the capping methodology used have been validated in over 100 trials between 2008 and present day, and confirm the posted win probabilities.
FWIW , for the 2018 season , I have modified my capping methodology somewhat to improve my accuracy in establishing WP as well as overall capping accuracy as mentioned in another thread. As a result of this , I will also , starting in Week 1, begin the process of re certification of my Win Probability statistical data.
GLTA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
FWIW , for the 2018 season , I have modified my capping methodology somewhat to improve my accuracy in establishing WP as well as overall capping accuracy as mentioned in another thread. As a result of this , I will also , starting in Week 1, begin the process of re certification of my Win Probability statistical data.
I like the overall number of plays you make in a season. I will prolly only do 10-12 plays, I went 8-4-2 Last year 67%
Thanks. Over the last 10 years or so , I have been able to improve my ability to quantify value and in process improved the number of plays I am able to find that meet my " X " ( 67 % WP ) threshold . Between 30 - 40 is just about the right amount for me.
Good Luck to you this season
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
I like the overall number of plays you make in a season. I will prolly only do 10-12 plays, I went 8-4-2 Last year 67%
Thanks. Over the last 10 years or so , I have been able to improve my ability to quantify value and in process improved the number of plays I am able to find that meet my " X " ( 67 % WP ) threshold . Between 30 - 40 is just about the right amount for me.
Thanks. Over the last 10 years or so , I have been able to improve my ability to quantify value and in the process improved the number of plays I am able to find that meet my " X " ( 67 % WP ) minimum threshold.
Between 30 - 40 is just about the right amount for me.
Good Luck to you this season
Since I utilize " Kelly " as my wagering strategy , two high WP plays per week is optimum for me. Being able to choose the two best " Value and high WP " options from 3 or 4 plays each week that offer a minimum 67 % WP , is even better.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Thanks. Over the last 10 years or so , I have been able to improve my ability to quantify value and in the process improved the number of plays I am able to find that meet my " X " ( 67 % WP ) minimum threshold.
Between 30 - 40 is just about the right amount for me.
Good Luck to you this season
Since I utilize " Kelly " as my wagering strategy , two high WP plays per week is optimum for me. Being able to choose the two best " Value and high WP " options from 3 or 4 plays each week that offer a minimum 67 % WP , is even better.
Question Wise - re: % of B.R. wagered, I am unsure what you mean - does B.R. stand for 'bankroll', because that suggests you are wagering 170% of your bankroll - season bankroll; weekly bankroll? I am just trying to understand what you mean by your terms. Does Kelly (which I admittedly only have a conceptual, not practical, knowledge of - nowhere near sufficient to employ it in my wagering) permit or require such large wagers particularly at the beginning of the season when many factors are not yet known? Many thx...
Question Wise - re: % of B.R. wagered, I am unsure what you mean - does B.R. stand for 'bankroll', because that suggests you are wagering 170% of your bankroll - season bankroll; weekly bankroll? I am just trying to understand what you mean by your terms. Does Kelly (which I admittedly only have a conceptual, not practical, knowledge of - nowhere near sufficient to employ it in my wagering) permit or require such large wagers particularly at the beginning of the season when many factors are not yet known? Many thx...
Question Wise - re: % of B.R. wagered, I am unsure what you mean - does B.R. stand for 'bankroll', because that suggests you are wagering 170% of your bankroll - season bankroll; weekly bankroll? I am just trying to understand what you mean by your terms. Does Kelly (which I admittedly only have a conceptual, not practical, knowledge of - nowhere near sufficient to employ it in my wagering) permit or require such large wagers particularly at the beginning of the season when many factors are not yet known? Many thx...
GW
Yes, It is " Bankroll " and refers to the Kelly optimum bet percentage for a measured win probability. In my post # 52, I refer to the 3 selections , and cite the percentage of bankroll that is allocated for each. The total amounts to 170 % of total bankroll. The fact that there are 3 high WP plays for Week 1 , accounts for the amounts wagered. I cite the risks in post # 52 , as well as the potential rewards in my post # 53. Week 1 does pose slightly more risk as we have a lot of time remaining before kickoff. Summer suspensions / dismissals . Fall camp also poses injury concerns. There are ways to mitigate the risk though , and in the worse case , WP could be reduced and therefore less capital committed to a wager. Committing capital too early in Week 1 would be a mistake.
I should also point out that 3 high WP wagers in very unusual for week 1.
Hope this explains it somewhat.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Question Wise - re: % of B.R. wagered, I am unsure what you mean - does B.R. stand for 'bankroll', because that suggests you are wagering 170% of your bankroll - season bankroll; weekly bankroll? I am just trying to understand what you mean by your terms. Does Kelly (which I admittedly only have a conceptual, not practical, knowledge of - nowhere near sufficient to employ it in my wagering) permit or require such large wagers particularly at the beginning of the season when many factors are not yet known? Many thx...
GW
Yes, It is " Bankroll " and refers to the Kelly optimum bet percentage for a measured win probability. In my post # 52, I refer to the 3 selections , and cite the percentage of bankroll that is allocated for each. The total amounts to 170 % of total bankroll. The fact that there are 3 high WP plays for Week 1 , accounts for the amounts wagered. I cite the risks in post # 52 , as well as the potential rewards in my post # 53. Week 1 does pose slightly more risk as we have a lot of time remaining before kickoff. Summer suspensions / dismissals . Fall camp also poses injury concerns. There are ways to mitigate the risk though , and in the worse case , WP could be reduced and therefore less capital committed to a wager. Committing capital too early in Week 1 would be a mistake.
I should also point out that 3 high WP wagers in very unusual for week 1.
Thanks Wise, I re-read your earlier posts more carefully. A 92% win probability on a set of factors with over 100 trials is one hell of a proposition! I wish you best of luck on all of these plays ...
Thanks Wise, I re-read your earlier posts more carefully. A 92% win probability on a set of factors with over 100 trials is one hell of a proposition! I wish you best of luck on all of these plays ...
Thanks Wise, I re-read your earlier posts more carefully. A 92% win probability on a set of factors with over 100 trials is one hell of a proposition! I wish you best of luck on all of these plays ...
GW
Thanks , Bud . To clarify slightly . The over 100 trials represents the results of all 4 classes of of selections that I describe in post # 17 . Post # 17 does not include pre 2008 selections or 2016, 2017 selections. as my capping methodology has been modified somewhat from before 2008 , as well as after 2015. Accuracy and the number of selections available has increased significantly since 2015. Pre 2008 , all classes were in trials for 3 seasons prior to actually using them for wagering purposes.
A validated 92 % win probability on a play is a nice edge .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Thanks Wise, I re-read your earlier posts more carefully. A 92% win probability on a set of factors with over 100 trials is one hell of a proposition! I wish you best of luck on all of these plays ...
GW
Thanks , Bud . To clarify slightly . The over 100 trials represents the results of all 4 classes of of selections that I describe in post # 17 . Post # 17 does not include pre 2008 selections or 2016, 2017 selections. as my capping methodology has been modified somewhat from before 2008 , as well as after 2015. Accuracy and the number of selections available has increased significantly since 2015. Pre 2008 , all classes were in trials for 3 seasons prior to actually using them for wagering purposes.
A validated 92 % win probability on a play is a nice edge .
Thanks , Bud . To clarify slightly . The over 100 trials represents the results of all 4 classes of of selections that I describe in post # 17 . Post # 17 does not include pre 2008 selections or 2016, 2017 selections. as my capping methodology has been modified somewhat from before 2008 , as well as after 2015. Accuracy and the number of selections available has increased significantly since 2015. During their validation process , all 4 classes were in trials for 3 seasons prior to actually using them for wagering purposes. Validation results are also included.
A validated 92 % win probability on a play is a nice edge .
Thought I would clarify the validation process a bit.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Thanks , Bud . To clarify slightly . The over 100 trials represents the results of all 4 classes of of selections that I describe in post # 17 . Post # 17 does not include pre 2008 selections or 2016, 2017 selections. as my capping methodology has been modified somewhat from before 2008 , as well as after 2015. Accuracy and the number of selections available has increased significantly since 2015. During their validation process , all 4 classes were in trials for 3 seasons prior to actually using them for wagering purposes. Validation results are also included.
A validated 92 % win probability on a play is a nice edge .
Thought I would clarify the validation process a bit.
Also, what are you using as your predetermined "edge" in you Kelly Criterion calculations?
Also, did you know that Kelly is intended to be used on sequential bets only, not concurrent?
You either can't read of you do not understand my use of Kelly.
Each play is graded to a win probability , and is wagered on accordingly. The WP is measured in the capping method and is also confirmed by historical results for it's class
This method was specifically designed to make your second statement irrelevant and not applicable.
It is discussed in detail in my post # 17.
Have someone read it to you
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Also, what are you using as your predetermined "edge" in you Kelly Criterion calculations?
Also, did you know that Kelly is intended to be used on sequential bets only, not concurrent?
You either can't read of you do not understand my use of Kelly.
Each play is graded to a win probability , and is wagered on accordingly. The WP is measured in the capping method and is also confirmed by historical results for it's class
This method was specifically designed to make your second statement irrelevant and not applicable.
I'm done posting on this subject . This thread began with trying to share a personal goal of mine with the Forum , but it has turned into something quite different and I will not waste any more of my time debating the matter.
But , I will leave you with this.
I have developed my capping method specifically to support my use of Kelly as my wagering strategy.
My capping method provides me with a measured, and validated win probability on any matchup , and at any given pointspread.
Hopefully I have now stated this in terms that all can understand.
The ability to know your probability of success on any given wager and at any given pointspread BEFORE you make the wager , and the ability to determine the actual risk that you assume at that price is what this is all about.
Since I have been able to do this successfully , wagering on sports has proven to be a whole lot more fun as well as a whole lot more profitable for me.
Good Luck to All this College Football Season.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
I'm done posting on this subject . This thread began with trying to share a personal goal of mine with the Forum , but it has turned into something quite different and I will not waste any more of my time debating the matter.
But , I will leave you with this.
I have developed my capping method specifically to support my use of Kelly as my wagering strategy.
My capping method provides me with a measured, and validated win probability on any matchup , and at any given pointspread.
Hopefully I have now stated this in terms that all can understand.
The ability to know your probability of success on any given wager and at any given pointspread BEFORE you make the wager , and the ability to determine the actual risk that you assume at that price is what this is all about.
Since I have been able to do this successfully , wagering on sports has proven to be a whole lot more fun as well as a whole lot more profitable for me.
This thread is all about Win Probability and It's use in managing risk. as stated in posts # 1 and # 2 , my goal for 2018 is to achieve an 80 % Win Probability on all props wagered on. While it sounds impossible to accomplish , it's actually not . I utilize a capping method that actually provides the win probability on any matchup that I cap. My win probability is also confirmed by the historical record of all classes dating from 2008 ( A picks ) and from 2012 , ( all other classes ) to present day. This means that I have 2 separate methods of confirming the WP on any wager that I may choose to make.This is the key to managing wagering risk. I utilize 4 separate classes in my wagering strategy. They are :
Class...... From / to.......... Record........... %
A.......... 2008/2015.......... 8 of 9............ 89
$$.........2012/2015...........9 of 11........... 82
X+........2012/2015............7 of 9............78
X..........2012/2015............4 of 6.............67 ----------- ------ 28 of 35 80
The above represents all wagers made in these classes and the results between 2012 and 2015. Since 2015 , I have been able to improve accuracy somewhat and also increase the # of props played. All I have to do is be disciplined in the props that I wager on.
I thought I would re post this to show how it relates to achieving my goal of 80 % wins this season. I have underlined the key points to success.If I limit my plays to only those that conform to one of the 4 classes listed above , I WILL achieve my goal. The key is to be disciplined in my play selection.
For Week 1 , I will have 4 plays as I decided to play 2 " X " picks rather than 1.
I understand that most have difficulty in grasping this, just as I did in trying to succeed using " Kelly ". I will always be thankful to the late Huey Mahl for pointing me in the right direction. The first step is the one that most cannot get past. To succeed at this you must be able to consistently and accurately measure the " True Line Value " on a matchup you choose to wager on. Most can do it once in a while , but cannot do it consistently. This is by far the most difficult hurdle to success. You cannot measure Win Probability without the ability to accurately and consistently measure TLV. If you cannot accurately measure WP , you cannot utilize Kelly effectively and profitably.
Very few have figured this out .Thanks again for your guidance , Huey. I wish you could see what we've done with it.
I've tried share what I've learned with the Forum on this subject , and hopefully it has motivated a few to dig a little deeper to improve their skills and abilities
GLTA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
This thread is all about Win Probability and It's use in managing risk. as stated in posts # 1 and # 2 , my goal for 2018 is to achieve an 80 % Win Probability on all props wagered on. While it sounds impossible to accomplish , it's actually not . I utilize a capping method that actually provides the win probability on any matchup that I cap. My win probability is also confirmed by the historical record of all classes dating from 2008 ( A picks ) and from 2012 , ( all other classes ) to present day. This means that I have 2 separate methods of confirming the WP on any wager that I may choose to make.This is the key to managing wagering risk. I utilize 4 separate classes in my wagering strategy. They are :
Class...... From / to.......... Record........... %
A.......... 2008/2015.......... 8 of 9............ 89
$$.........2012/2015...........9 of 11........... 82
X+........2012/2015............7 of 9............78
X..........2012/2015............4 of 6.............67 ----------- ------ 28 of 35 80
The above represents all wagers made in these classes and the results between 2012 and 2015. Since 2015 , I have been able to improve accuracy somewhat and also increase the # of props played. All I have to do is be disciplined in the props that I wager on.
I thought I would re post this to show how it relates to achieving my goal of 80 % wins this season. I have underlined the key points to success.If I limit my plays to only those that conform to one of the 4 classes listed above , I WILL achieve my goal. The key is to be disciplined in my play selection.
For Week 1 , I will have 4 plays as I decided to play 2 " X " picks rather than 1.
I understand that most have difficulty in grasping this, just as I did in trying to succeed using " Kelly ". I will always be thankful to the late Huey Mahl for pointing me in the right direction. The first step is the one that most cannot get past. To succeed at this you must be able to consistently and accurately measure the " True Line Value " on a matchup you choose to wager on. Most can do it once in a while , but cannot do it consistently. This is by far the most difficult hurdle to success. You cannot measure Win Probability without the ability to accurately and consistently measure TLV. If you cannot accurately measure WP , you cannot utilize Kelly effectively and profitably.
Very few have figured this out .Thanks again for your guidance , Huey. I wish you could see what we've done with it.
I've tried share what I've learned with the Forum on this subject , and hopefully it has motivated a few to dig a little deeper to improve their skills and abilities
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