Wolfeman NCAAB ‘23 howwl

Aloha Everybody.  Next 4 days should be the Tits!! YES, Thursday’s finally here.  An embarrassing week last week, a lot of games I played and I apologize. Finished 6-9 ATS after an outstanding season.  I genuinely do not like to have a posted play lose. Also paid the man Monday, we all do.  It’s holding me back a bit, but I have strong leans on a handful of games that could become POD.  

The GREAT news is it’s a brand new 4 day weekend, the bad news is…just like last week, these lines are extremely “tight” for my models and I can’t find an edge  At least for me, I could make a case for all 16 Teams to cover Thu-Fri. So I honestly as of now, have no POD tomorrow yet.  I will be on SDSU Friday.. i would like to see a Pub crawl steam to +8 before committing yet. 
Which brings me to an important point… I think in some of these matchups, an in game/live wager might work to your advantage. For instance, not a lot of reason to grab say Gonzaga +1.5 or to pay the juice (some of these outfits i see -120 per half point ). Ho Lee Phuk! Just to get Zags +2??  What I would suggest on some of these tricky lines is hold out until the first 5 minute timeout.  Then hope: A. Your handicapping was correct (in this case Zags).  B. That UCLA jumps out to a roughly 4-0, 5-2, 8-4 type of lead. 

If so, your original Zags +1.5 could now be Zags +2.5, +3.5 or more and ML +220 or more.
Ditto with K State tomorrow +1.5 and I think you could probably catch FAU +7.5 at some point. Part of my theory on this is the obvious that NCAAB tourney is emotional, intense, these are young men…and they will give 110% til the end.  And if down or in a deficit, they’ll give 125%!  It’s natural. Secondly, I think you can catch these Live Odds Makers with their pants down!! All week these games were capped and now the Books have little time to create these line live. Stay the course believe in your numbers and get it.  
** major note…I’ve actually been “limited” and rather quickly on how much I can get down on In-game and secondly be VERY careful of juice and scams! Sometimes I’ll hit confirm and the juice magically runs from -107 to -117 and I personally will never pay over -127 no matter how cherry the play looks. 

Also and most importantly, if you choose to take this “Live Line” approach to seeking specific numbers/runs/momo etc. for these matchups… You HAVE to be wise enough to walk away with no play on some of these big time televised games.  A no play is fine if the plan above didn’t work out.  You liked zags +1.5 didn’t play, now they’re up 10-4… GOTTA be able to walk away, move to the next game, and be willing to sit that next game out too!  If you’re a chaser, square, undisciplined or your book provides unfair live wagers this is not for you. 

GL let’s weekend, we need to grind some good dinners. 

Saturday current lines & leans for the early games:

Kansas St ML  I mean these guys have been hard as hell all season long… they can’t protect the ball very well, and that could easily be their downfall because Mich State will turn you over and quickly make you question your pregame tactics. Hauser will get his and Sparty will have some great runs which is why i prefer Kansas St as an in game wager 
Will be one helluva game  . HO BRAH. 

#2: Major Lean to UCONN. But sheesh -4.5 is a 1.5 too many in my opinion. Again I’ll look for Uconn in game with fingers crossed they get down early.  Pig suuueeeeyy has been fun… but they’re young, and that Musselman no shirt celebration provides nothing but locker room material for the huskies.  Who are already playing with a chip on their shoulder and are outright Men vs the young men at Arkansas. Give me Huskies but not certain they win by 5. 

GL fellas 

Later games:

I really see FAU sticking around in this one and would consider a ML upset…. I will.  
Vols this & that, let’s see them cover as a favorite…the current Tennessee -5.5 line vs the mighty Owls of Florida ATL is all I need to know.  Who could have named 3 FAU players before this Tourney started?  Meanwhile I still believe missing Ziegler at PG will eventually catch up. 

UCLA vs Zaga - Flip a coin!   I would love to get UCLA at +3.5 off a run…. These guys are another veteran team that will fight to the end…Grab em in game after a Zags run. 

Have fun with the games….one game is leaning closer to a POD for me. You might can tell which one, Hahaha. 

Let’s HUNT! I’ve flossed my Fangs… 

Thanks Wolfman   I also like the live in game plan. Good reminder about not chasing if your chance doesn’t happen. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement.  

Good luck Wolfeman.  

@Dz10

 GL my man…  in these monster-popularity games, da Books will put major inflation on these in games.  They’re absolutely taxed in my opinion.   REALLY have to be careful, and never chase on them…. 

@D-Town

 GL charm  mahalos

Here’s another trick to watch for, those new to betting….I see a lot of players here take Teasers. Not so fast.  
Uconn -4 and Texas -4
4 pts Teased to Uconn pk/Texas pk is -110…..The same bet as a Moneyline Parlay Uconn/Texas is +135. 

Enormous difference.  I know this is betting 101 to most but trying to help out since I really have no plays to suggest for today yet…

Wolfeman 

great information as always

Thank you...a lot of well thought out information and planning

Hey I appreciate that Walbanger.  You should see how long it takes me to type and edit these thoughts with my 8th grade grammar! Aloha buddy let’s try and pull a winning weekend…..The only LOCK is it’s going to be unreal excitement. Get your seatbelt on 

You da man great info 

@cincyquencher

 Mahalo my brotha….I’m honestly STILL bent out of shape on how the Bengals lost that AFC championship.  

Hey Wolf, didn’t know if you knew this but Knowell, Massoud, Tomlin and Greene are all from New York for KSU. I think those Cats, along with the rest of them, will have a little extra motivation at the Garden. Dream come true for those guys. They need to protect the ball and win the TO battle. Knowell will get his dimes and Johnson will hit his 50% FG’s so just need the rest of the boys to step up, hit shots and play D. Cats have had trouble in the paint this year on O and D as they do not have a bone crusher underneath who can dominate the paint. I put $200 on them at 25-1 to win it all yesterday. 

I like the live wagering idea. Going to be at Wynn Sportsbook Thurs/Friday. LFG! 

@NONEED4LUCK

 ABSOLUTELY! I love the little Manhattan, Ks/ Big Apple connection.   Kansas St is tough as Funk, Eastcoast tough….that’s not going to be the issue.  The issue is Sparty will equal their toughness. With that said, I wanna be clear I have a slight lean to KSU. 

@wolfeman3

@PerfectStorm

 Where ya been?  What’s happening today for Ya? I still that Manhattan’ bookie dude was SPAM maybe? Havent seen him since, if you haven’t noticed, not one pick placed in my thread yet.  

These lines are pretty brutal 

@wolfeman3

 Just a little vaca for me that’s all. I’ll post my POD (nba) later on here  

@NONEED4LUCK

 Forgot to add buddy, I was at the Wynn Sportsbook for the festivities last year for the first week of Madness! Beautiful man, beautiful. Hammer em buddy, that place is WILD last two minutes of the half/game etc. 

A true Bummer the attention to the Madness on the islands….you usually have to request to change the channel from Surfing reruns here on West Maui. Hahaha.

@PerfectStorm… good stuff.  Just make it quick, or else  hahahaha….

Also NBA is child’s play right now to the Tournament!  That sport’s reaching an all time low. 

And one other thing I wanted to toss out there was the Incredible 1st Half Unders that were a nice supplement to my game picks that lost .  Kinda helped balance that 6-9 week of madness.  That trend, like years past is ONLY applicable to 1st & 2nd Round.  And I’ll see you next year to hammer those again.   Conference Tournaments were also very kind if you picked the right spots on the “1st Half Unders on a neutral court.. and 1st & 2nd Rounds only.” RULE    That trend is all pau (finished). 

 MAN those were fantastic!! Major props to LV Truck 

Aloha & GL @wolfeman3

Aloha….

 I can’t believe these matchups today! Man, I love this stuff…. I could watch Michigan St vs Kansas St and UConn vs Arkansas play 10 times in a row and would never get bored…my kinda basketball.  ATHLETES 

4:20 AM Maui time niccce.  Check ya during the games.. I’ll try and stay in touch, but watching the Live Lines, the Games and posting Line lines most likely won’t happen.  2nd halves could have a play. 

Take care, we rock today

I like the way you think !

Let's cash some tickets !