Sunday, February 6 NCAAB

Weird night last night. There were a couple of goofy sides I was on. Had St. Johns and was lucky to have a chance for a cover at the end and it was blown. Then had UCONN and had the cover till an amazingly horrible moose (seems to me there was another dumb play at TEX as well to put that game to OT). It's a funny life gambling on sports for sure. Both of those games (and UK/FLA for that matter) can be going against your side all day until the tables turn and your on the winning end with seconds left just to get beat. And your the side who got screwed despite only covering for less than 5% of the game. Anyways, I figured I would try doing some posting on the forums. I'm far from a sharp or an experienced capper but I will say that I make just enough to keep me motivated.

MICH @ PENST (opening at -4.5)

Penn State will probably be without Jeff Brooks in this one. The guy holds the interior of that Nittany Lion squad together, their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He's not an impressive athlete so those sort of familiar with the program might not think his abscence will really affect the squad but on a team like this, it's all a matter of depth. This isn't an elite program that can bring a heralded recruit to start in his place. The things he does on this team is because he is the only one who can do it. It's a loss worth noting.

Michigan is starting to come around. Watching them recently you start to see them challenge elite squads consistently due to their screwy offense and defense and the emergence of some promising players- specifically Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway Jr. Morgan is really well suited to this offense as he and Darius Morgan really work the pick and roll well and he has the ability to hit the offensive boards. Hardaway can be lights out with his outside game and can slash very well. Should these guys keep developing they could have a great guard, wing, big combo for the big 10. 

So as for this game? It's tough as recently these teams have been covering as dogs in conference play. Michigan has covered three straight, beating MSU (less and less impressive) and IOWA and keeping the OHST game close until late. PENST had covered 6 in a row before getting beaten in ILL in a game where they had difficulty getting to Champiagn and lost Brooks. MICH did go through a tough stretch following their first OHST game which was similar to the most recent one, losing on the road at IND, NW and home to MIN. But they managed to take care of business in a dangerous game between the MSU win and OSU look-ahead and beat down IOWA at home. With the loss of Brooks and my faith in the MICH squad growing my lean would be to take the points. The number could move down before tip.

Going theough this card I'm nervous about how many Big 10 dogs I like.

MCHST @ WISC

I backed MCHST against IOWA. I ignored the warning signs. Loss SU and ATS at PENST, OT wins but ATS losses against WISC and NWEST, outplayed at ILL and PURDU, loss SU and ATS as 11 pt fav at home to MICH, OT win against IND as 11 pt fav before getting embarassed, humiliated and completely dismantled at IOWS, the worst Bug 10 squad going. I think MCHST may be done folks, at least this year. There are some theories among analysts that a team that doesn't have guys turning pro and making NBA rosters helps continuity. That may be the case but maybe it also means theres not a ton of talent on your team to begin with.

WISC is nothing new this year. Solid team at home. Patient offense, godd defense. Probably the opposite of MCHST in terms of talent. They're not going to be known for elite talen, but they're smart, well coached, and fit into their system like clockwork. Their next game is a rooadie at IOWA and this nationally televised contest should provide a great atmosphere against a great NAME in the Big 10. I really think the Badgers are the side here but something in my gut is telling me that Izzo will find a way to get his guys to compete here. If he doesn't, I will consider them a fade for the rest of the year. 9.5 is too much for me.

OHST @ MINN

In terms of pure size, this Golden Golpher squad may be the only one that can compete with OHST in the Big 10. Illinois has some skinny 7 footers as does PURDU with JaJuan, but MIN has players who can provide a real test possession by possession for OHSTs Jared Sullinger.

MINN was almost blown out in their last meeting with the Buckeyes but fought back and ultimately gave themselves a chance to win the game, covering pretty easily when it was said and done as 16 point dogs. That was with their PG Nolen in the lineup. His loss hhas really started showing on this team as they have failed to cover in their last two games, both road trips to PURDU and IND. In this spotm with the no. 1 team in town, undefeated and possibly looking ahead to their next game @ WISC I think theres a chance the Golphers cover. This line will likely slip down a bit and I think that if enough public action drives it back up (or past) the 6.5 I'm going to ride with MINN.

Will try to do a bit more tomorrow if I get a chance. This is really about a 10th of what I look into when making my own picks but I figured posting might make me look for a bit more info here and there. GL.

you are going to have one very "pumped up" crowd at the kohl center sunday....first of all, revenge is on the minds of all badger fans after wisconsin blew a ten point lead at east lansing a couple weeks ago and lost outright to the spartans!......PAYBACK TIME!!!not that the badgers will need it to take down a michigan state squad that is playing very poorly....and  besides, this is just  a "state of wisconsin" tune up game to prepare all wisconsin sports fans for the game they are really interested in that takes place down in dallas a couple of hours after the badgers are thru beating the hell out of the spartans!....the badgers will romp sunday!!....lets get this state of wisconsin party day started with a total bashing of the spartans before the pack takes the main stage later in the day ..... and destroys the pittsburgh steelers!!!

badgers in an easy easy easy double digit win sunday !!....spartans will get sent packing in this one!

gd. I absolutely agree with you. It seems like the chances are there for WISC to blow them out. But I was expecting a line around 7-8. Figured the MCHST name still had an impact. But WISC will be hosting the number 1 team in a week. I know that will be a much much larger factor whe the play IOWA but it feels to me that this line is begging you to see a team off a 20 pt beatdown to a bad team and fade them. I'll tell you what, this might be the game where I go against the public wherever they are cause this line does not smell right.