I better win this one baby!
Let's just say I haven't made too many friends lately!
No problem. We will win.
Before I start my write-up, I want you to watch a perfectly edited video of the ending of the Dartmouth/Yale game last weekend:
Mind you, if Yale wins this game, they have their first NCAA tournament birth since 1962. 1962! Over half a century ago!
The video opens with Yale inbounding the ball, up 3 with 24 seconds left. Should be a game of fouling right? Hit your FT's and your good. What it doesn't show is that Yale was up 57-52 a little before that. Yes, a 5 point lead with 35 seconds to go to your first tournament in 53 years. (Sound familiar to Spurs Heat in 2013 Game 6 doesn't it?)
Now watch what happened:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbxOfmfbxqg
Brutal!
Absolutely heartbreaking. Folks this was a nothing game for Yale. Dartmouth is a middling team in the Ivy league and nowhere near Harvard or Yale.
Worse. Yale had already completed the hard part the game before beating Harvard in dominant fashion 62-52 on March 6th. All they needed to do was finish off lowly Dartmouth and they would go to the Big Dance.
Well guess what, when the pressure was on, 53 years of pressure and an entire school rich in academic tradition watching on, it becomes almost unbearable.
And like many other teams in that spot for the first time, they folded.
But all was not lost.
Yale split the season series with Harvard losing by 2 once and winning by 10 in the rematch and THIS Saturday at 4pm EST, they play on a neutral court in Philly for all the marbles to go to partake March Madness.
I'm usually a guy for stats and metrics of all types to break games down, but right now, you can throw that all out the window.
There is an ENORMOUS amount of pressure on Yale right now, pressure that I simply cannot see them overcoming.
In sports, the one thing that holds constant is that when, in your mind you won (and Yale must have thought they won up 5 with 35 seconds and the lead with .5 left after accidently tipping the ball back to Dartmouth), and you actually didn't win, the psychological impediment to victory, if given another chance, is too much to overcome.
The human mind becomes your own worst enemy.
Do we have examples of this in the annals of sports history? Of course.
Heat Spurs 2013 - Ray Allen hits the miracle three pointer and the it was all over, not only for that game but for the series. Tim Duncan was so tight he couldn't even make a layup in crunch time in Game 7 (remember when he pounded the floor?).
Cavs Spurs last nght - Kawai misses the free throws and once again, the Cavs convert and take the OT.
Others?
Mets Red Sox '86 - The ball gets through Buckner's legs and game 7 was a formality even though the Sox took a 3-0 lead, nothing would stop the Mets from winning it all.
Yankees Sox 2004 - Lose a 3-0 series lead and blow game 7 at home in dumpster fire fashion...a slaughter on their turf.
Sonics Nuggets 1994 - Sonics go up 2-0 and lose the next three to the lowly Nuggets and Mutombo.
There are many many more. Yes there are a few counterexamples like the Diamondbacks Yankees in 2001 after the Byung Yun Kim meltdown which I still am amazed the Diamondbacks pulled out.
But for the overwhelming majority, once the team with momentum, even if they were the better team, gave back that momentum, they couldn't get it back.
And let me tell you this, Yale is the better team. But remember, Harvard started this year ranked 25th in the nation. They are represent the IVY's in the big dance for 3 years with good reason.
For this league, this is the battle of the behemoths. Yale is first in scoring offense. Harvard is first in scoring defense.
But in this situation, with all this pressure, I want to lean on my defense. Clamp down and make an already tight Yale team earn every shot. It's hard enough to make shots vs. a D like Harvard. Now you have the added pressure of the tourney birth that slipped through you fingers. Wow. That's real pressure.
What about experience in big games? This is indispensable in situations like this.
Harvard has been to the big dance 3 straight years. They have the big-name coach and big-time IVY league program.
Yale..one banner....from 1962.
TIGHT. That is was Yale will be...just like:
The 86 Sox
The 2004 Yanks
The 1994 Sonics (an amazingly talented team)
The 2013 Spurs
Folks these teams had their muscles tense and grimaces all over their face. Why? PRESSURE. They had it and gave it away, just like Yale. This game is a formality.
And to be honest, Harvard is playing with house money. They were essentially eliminated. Now they have a second chance at life and a fourth straight tourney birth.
If this game played between the two teams on any other Saturday, I'm taking Yale.
But not under these circumstances...too tough...too tight...
And now the line.
A VERY agreeable -1.5 Harvard. Why is it 1.5 Harvard? Harvard is the biggest public Ivy league team given their appearances in the big dance. But this game is at a neutral site in Philly. Therefore, the line of 5 Harvard was laying to Yale in their last game gets brought down 3 which is a standard adjustment (and since they lost to Yale in poor fashion.. an extra half). I'm taking it down an extra .5 pt because it will be close and I'm not fu**ing around with the better team that can bomb at the end. Now all we need it a win.
It's all about being selective. I waited a full week for this game. This is how you cap folks. Not this action junkie crap spread out through the day...
The Ivy league is the one league without a conference tournament. One game for all the beans. And virtually no spread. This game will be close, believe me. But in the end, if Yale's shots do not fall, say goodnight, Harvard dances once again.
The pick:
HARVARD -1 (-120) over YALE
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