MEAN ST DEVIATION PLAY

In the NFL, there's a play called "The 50 Point Swing"

Take a team coming off of a loss vs a team coming off of a win if the loss margin + win margin is greater than or equal to 50.

-Dan Gordon, BEAT THE SPORTSBOOK

 

Crunching numbers in excel and using Standard Deviation and Mean, the NCAAB equivalent play is, Drumroll please......

"The 65-Point Swing"

 

GEORGIA ST +3.5 tonight is the play

 

I'm 3 - 0 using Mean / ST DEV strategies in NHL

I look to go 4 - 0

Good Luck tonight  

Thanks, I'll be watching the scoreboard. 

 

I absolutely love your angle!
That being said, I don't understand this play as Ga St won by 30 yesterday....

Thanks for correcting me. . .

Right Play, different strategy. .  R U Ready for this. . .

NCAAB ---> Mean ---> 69 pts

---> Standard Deviation ---> 13

To mimic my NHL action, which was a play off of an earlier post in the NFL using the 30 or more and 12 or less back to back FADE

This is an NCAA identical strategy

It's a Chatanooga Fade

89 - 51

107 - 48

Thanks again for correcting me

 

I may follow Georgia State for a unit

Good luck my man.

  Thanks. 

They were down 3 to 2 at one point.... from then on it was all Georgia State



Another great pick tafter, keep us up to date on that system!!



IMO in the long run it will be much better in everything other than hockey.... in the NHL good teams can consistently win big, of course eventually they all have letdowns but I would guess that college hoops will be the best.

Thanks Spit. . . .

There are two play for tomorrow using Mean and STD that I saw. . . I'll be posting them soon. 

 

gl bro, looks like ur doing interesting stuff

looking forward to them!

Thanks guys. . . I finally have a strict system that I'm planning on using year round and in any sport.  I do believe that I do have a real chance to "live the dream." 

12/31/2010 are in College hoops. . .

Louisville -2

Gardner Webb +/- pts, but I can't find a book posting it yet.

 

Honestly, it's a system with a ton of potential...


...but IMO you shouldn't just sit on what it is picking now, as you track the progress of the system over time figure out what to eliminate -- for example, since you are betting against favs in a 'letdown' spot and betting dogs that the public will undoubtedly be betting against, you should be able to get some great value out of these picks.  St Louis won 3-1 the other night, you can't argue with a win, but I wasn't about to play it because you were only getting +100 with a system that should inherently carry more value.  Getting +100 in a spot like that suggests that it may be even more of a 'public trap' than usual and you are on the 'sharp' side of things, but regardless of that in ML sports I would just rather get them at + money.


Have you back-tested any of this?  If you are looking to 'live the dream' with a single system, you need to back-test and see what would have happened if you had been using this system for years.  I believe there are simple ways to do it, using software (like statfox maybe?) but I'm not positive.


The only other recommendation I would make is that when the system spits out underdogs of 4-12 points in hoops you should maybe throw half a unit on the ML as well.... IMO in the long run ML underdogs just carry soooo much more value than sides at -110 that you just have to bet em!


VERY intriguing system early on - keep up this level of passion for statistics and sports betting and whether you 'live the dream' of making a lot of money on sports or not, I promise that you will do better than 90% of gamblers.  Aside from the approach that you use, it really all boils down to money management and discipline.  You appear to have those, so you are already ahead of almost everyone else in the game. 


Looking forward to more from you, tafter. 

Gardner-Webb will not be a lined game

Great post spitfire

Can you post the statistics that make Louisville a play?  I see 2 solid wins for Kentucky, but I'm not sure that the second game (UK's last game) would be a large enough margin to qualify under your system.  Just want to make sure I understand completely.


Are you relatively new to sports betting or have you been doing this for a while?  Seems like you have a long history of interest in the stock market and maybe you are just tapping into this new field.  If that's the case I've been betting all sports for a long time and have seen a million games, I've followed a lot of system, I've seen great cappers on this site come and go, so I think I can offer you some answers if you ever have questions.  Feel free to shoot me a PM. 

what are the numbers for college bball? mean and std dev?

I got nba and nhl down... not many plays to be found but when they are there i'll be sure to be on them

NHL

8 Point Swing --> fade the fav

4-1 or worse back to back --> fade 3rd game

 

NFL

50 point swing --> fade the fav

30-12 or worse back to back --> fade the 3rd game

 

NCAAB

65 pt swing --> fade the fav

82-56 or worse --> fade the fav

 

NBA

50 Point Swing --> fade the fav

108-88 or worse --> fade the fav

 

 

NCAAF still in the works.

MLB? I'll be reading some books this winter first before I apply these two strategies

MLS?  I think this would probably work wonders, but I'll back test it.

I very much appreciate the support, and I'll be putting together, very soon, a website for every sport that mimics great strategies like these. 

NBA fan & Spit fire. . Thanks again.  I'm loving this, and I do believe that this is what I was born to do - help people with my mind;  I taught math for 9 years to HS students, and I have no quarrels teaching some friends in a sports handicapping forum some statistical truths we may use for a lifetime. 

 

I KNOW that these two strategies will produce major success.  So much so, that Vegas will have to hire me as a lines maker in order to stop me from helping us all CRUSH IT!

 

My two favorite classes in college were Number Theory, and Statistics

Best of luck to all, and most of all, best discipline to all! 

I've learned the hard way from a few years ago when I bet against a Left-Handed-QB by the name of Pat White, and I'm truly grateful to have learned my lesson.  BTW, Washington beat Nebraska and the win reminded me of OK WV Fiesta when Pat White, the SR beat S BRadford, the Freshmen

Good night to all, and thanks for the encouragement

 

The NCAAB play that shadows the SD CINCY system goes like this......

Mean --> 69 pts

St Dev --> 13 pts

Therefore, we fade a team that goes back to back wins like the following:

82 or more points with 56 or fewer points

91 - 61 <-- 5 too high

89 - 52

OOOPs this an almost play. . My mistake.  Thanks for questioning it.  Louisville is not a play.  Fading KU is not the play.  Sorry guys.

there's an NHL play on 1/3/2010

Dallas vs Vancouver

Fade Vancouver on an "8 point swing"

 

There probably will be some people who want to try a near system play, and it sounds like a good idea, but so far that idea is 0 - 1

Just ask OZZ. . He liked Cleveland as a fade on ORL, as it was an ALmost System play, and Clev was winning most of the game, but ORL out paced them in the 4th quarter. 

The system play on mean and standard dev's using swings and back to backs

is. . .  --> 4 - 0 in the cover posts.

 

As far as back testing is concerned, I believe it to be unecessary to backtest every single game.  Feel free to back test, and if anyone is going to quote %s, please do provide us all with the data used in the back testing. 

My backtesting goes like this.  Dan Gordon, Beat the Sportsbook discusses the 50 pt swing for the nfl, I can explain it with statistics, so it's been back tested

if that's not enough, then check out the 85 bears, at least the 2nd best team in the nfl EVER.  when 0-2 in 1985.  NE lost ATS vs GB two weeks ago, and so did the #1 Off with #2 Def in SD vs Cincy where SD plays their best at the end of the year.  If those aren't enough evidence to support the 50 pt swing and back to back swing, then thoses skeptics will never be concvinced. 

I'm not saying I'm going to go undefeated with these two strategies, but I am 4-0, and I'll happily post my record and play each time I post - even if it produces losses.

 

 

 

Too bad about G WEBB

can you please explain what you mean by an 8 point swing? 65 point swing?

In a handicapping book by Dan Gordon, he uses in the NFL what he calls, "The 50 Point Swing." 

Take Team A when the following happens in the previous week:

Team A's loss margin + Team B's win margin is greater than or equal to 50. 

I ran data for the NFL and found that the average points per game is 22 and the ST DEV is 10.  What the 30 - 12 or worse spread just a coincidence that the data was almost to a "T" with 1 ST DEV up and 1 STD down from the mean?  I DON'T THINK SO!

Is the play the "50 Point Swing"? 

Or shall we call it the "5 Standard Deviation Swing"?     ; )

If so, we can use this play year round in all sports!

......After I ran data, I found that the mean and St Dev for NHL is 2.7 & 1.6

1.6 * 5 = 8

 

NFL is

22 & 10

 

NBA is

98 & 10

 

NCAAB

69 & 13

13 * 5 = 65

 

I just helped you find GOLD; I hope this pays dividends for you, and I hope you come to my site when it's up an running, and leave positive feedback.  I hope I get promoted by you and all of your friends as the Handicappers Math Teacher

I'm here to help, and I'm here to win

 

 

 

Woah, don't say anything about a site.  You're about to be banned. 

WOW...completely lost here.....maybe my daughter the mathematician can explain!!