Posted:
#1051
who is will cashman on pregame? 
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January Hoops
many thanks nropp
Posted:
#1056
I respect you the most for what you DIDN'T play.... and that was NCS which EVERY wannabe great capper on this board played (including me).... I even had this email last night convincing me of it.....
FSU looks to have a letdown after beating a Duke team at home in their last game. FSU is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games while NCSU is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings and the Wolfpack is 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 on the road.
Let's look at the last 10 ACC home games for FSU:
(only 1 of 10 games was won by more than 8 points)
beat Duke by 5
beat Clemson by 6
beat WF by 4
lost to Clemson by 3
beat BC by 15
beat Miami by 6
lost to Md by 4
beat Ga Tech by 2
beat Va Tech by 5
lost to NCSU by 7
Yes, they lost both games vs. NC State last year by 58-52 in the ACC tournament and lost a high scoring 88-81 (+11) game at home. Scott Wood scored 31 and 18 in those games and made 13 (7 and 6) 3-pointers. Tracy Smith and Javier Gonzalev played well in those games too.
As for Tracy Smith, the senior has played just 6 of 16 games. The Wolfpack get balanced scoring from veterans and freshmen:
Tracy Smith 14
CJ Leslie 11
Ryan Harrow 11
Scott Wood 11
Lorenzo Brown 10
Richard Howell 8
Gonzalez, CJ Williams and DeShawn Painter also play minutes for the visitors, who have played at Wisconsin, at Syracuse and at Boston College this year. They played Georgetown on a neutral court and played Arizona at home, so they have played a good schedule.
Now NCSU goes on the road off of a 9 point road loss to Boston College to play a defesnive team that has already lost at home to Florida and Ohio State. The Seminoles get 15.7 points per game from Chris Singleton and 10 from Kitchen and next are Snaer and Dulkys at 8 ppg.
I like our chances for NCSU to stay within 8 even without Farnold Degand no longer on the roster. NCSU +8 is the line as I write this on Friday night.
NC State +8 is the play
Let's look at the last 10 ACC home games for FSU:
(only 1 of 10 games was won by more than 8 points)
beat Duke by 5
beat Clemson by 6
beat WF by 4
lost to Clemson by 3
beat BC by 15
beat Miami by 6
lost to Md by 4
beat Ga Tech by 2
beat Va Tech by 5
lost to NCSU by 7
Yes, they lost both games vs. NC State last year by 58-52 in the ACC tournament and lost a high scoring 88-81 (+11) game at home. Scott Wood scored 31 and 18 in those games and made 13 (7 and 6) 3-pointers. Tracy Smith and Javier Gonzalev played well in those games too.
As for Tracy Smith, the senior has played just 6 of 16 games. The Wolfpack get balanced scoring from veterans and freshmen:
Tracy Smith 14
CJ Leslie 11
Ryan Harrow 11
Scott Wood 11
Lorenzo Brown 10
Richard Howell 8
Gonzalez, CJ Williams and DeShawn Painter also play minutes for the visitors, who have played at Wisconsin, at Syracuse and at Boston College this year. They played Georgetown on a neutral court and played Arizona at home, so they have played a good schedule.
Now NCSU goes on the road off of a 9 point road loss to Boston College to play a defesnive team that has already lost at home to Florida and Ohio State. The Seminoles get 15.7 points per game from Chris Singleton and 10 from Kitchen and next are Snaer and Dulkys at 8 ppg.
I like our chances for NCSU to stay within 8 even without Farnold Degand no longer on the roster. NCSU +8 is the line as I write this on Friday night.
NC State +8 is the play
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Posted:
#1057
Quote Originally Posted by vanillagq:
parlay ..hawaii + wash st ML............you the man N....have you noticed the how vegas puts home team winners -1.5, but line must move on home team favor...prime example uab/tulsa.....duq/temple....last week evansville...more than 50% of the time +2 on the road hits...I think i figured out vegas or am i just thinking to much?
parlay ..hawaii + wash st ML............you the man N....have you noticed the how vegas puts home team winners -1.5, but line must move on home team favor...prime example uab/tulsa.....duq/temple....last week evansville...more than 50% of the time +2 on the road hits...I think i figured out vegas or am i just thinking to much?
Thinking a wee bit too much. I'll compare it to NFL for comparison sake.
NCAA Game = average 60+ possessions per team
NFL Game = average 12 possessions per team
Difference between +3 and -3 in NFL is huge. So many more opportunities in basketball that +3 or -3 makes no difference if the game is capped right.
Take last Saturday's 0-6 with all six games moving at least 3 points. Made no difference. For every game that moves one direction and wins, there is another game that moves the other way and wins.
If an injury is present, then maybe there is justification in moving the line, but there is 5000+ players that compete at the D-1 level, and only a handful of them are irreplaceable.
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Posted:
#1059
Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:
I respect you the most for what you DIDN'T play.... and that was NCS which EVERY wannabe great capper on this board played (including me).... I even had this email last night convincing me of it.....
FSU looks to have a letdown after beating a Duke team at home in their last game. FSU is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games while NCSU is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings and the Wolfpack is 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 on the road.
Let's look at the last 10 ACC home games for FSU:
(only 1 of 10 games was won by more than 8 points)
beat Duke by 5
beat Clemson by 6
beat WF by 4
lost to Clemson by 3
beat BC by 15
beat Miami by 6
lost to Md by 4
beat Ga Tech by 2
beat Va Tech by 5
lost to NCSU by 7
Yes, they lost both games vs. NC State last year by 58-52 in the ACC tournament and lost a high scoring 88-81 (+11) game at home. Scott Wood scored 31 and 18 in those games and made 13 (7 and 6) 3-pointers. Tracy Smith and Javier Gonzalev played well in those games too.
As for Tracy Smith, the senior has played just 6 of 16 games. The Wolfpack get balanced scoring from veterans and freshmen:
Tracy Smith 14
CJ Leslie 11
Ryan Harrow 11
Scott Wood 11
Lorenzo Brown 10
Richard Howell 8
Gonzalez, CJ Williams and DeShawn Painter also play minutes for the visitors, who have played at Wisconsin, at Syracuse and at Boston College this year. They played Georgetown on a neutral court and played Arizona at home, so they have played a good schedule.
Now NCSU goes on the road off of a 9 point road loss to Boston College to play a defesnive team that has already lost at home to Florida and Ohio State. The Seminoles get 15.7 points per game from Chris Singleton and 10 from Kitchen and next are Snaer and Dulkys at 8 ppg.
I like our chances for NCSU to stay within 8 even without Farnold Degand no longer on the roster. NCSU +8 is the line as I write this on Friday night.
NC State +8 is the play
Let's look at the last 10 ACC home games for FSU:
(only 1 of 10 games was won by more than 8 points)
beat Duke by 5
beat Clemson by 6
beat WF by 4
lost to Clemson by 3
beat BC by 15
beat Miami by 6
lost to Md by 4
beat Ga Tech by 2
beat Va Tech by 5
lost to NCSU by 7
Yes, they lost both games vs. NC State last year by 58-52 in the ACC tournament and lost a high scoring 88-81 (+11) game at home. Scott Wood scored 31 and 18 in those games and made 13 (7 and 6) 3-pointers. Tracy Smith and Javier Gonzalev played well in those games too.
As for Tracy Smith, the senior has played just 6 of 16 games. The Wolfpack get balanced scoring from veterans and freshmen:
Tracy Smith 14
CJ Leslie 11
Ryan Harrow 11
Scott Wood 11
Lorenzo Brown 10
Richard Howell 8
Gonzalez, CJ Williams and DeShawn Painter also play minutes for the visitors, who have played at Wisconsin, at Syracuse and at Boston College this year. They played Georgetown on a neutral court and played Arizona at home, so they have played a good schedule.
Now NCSU goes on the road off of a 9 point road loss to Boston College to play a defesnive team that has already lost at home to Florida and Ohio State. The Seminoles get 15.7 points per game from Chris Singleton and 10 from Kitchen and next are Snaer and Dulkys at 8 ppg.
I like our chances for NCSU to stay within 8 even without Farnold Degand no longer on the roster. NCSU +8 is the line as I write this on Friday night.
NC State +8 is the play
Aside from all the ATS garbage written that typically is a "filler-in so this write-up looks better" by whomever wrote that, the author really points out his own mistake by using the word freshman.
I don't necessarily think it was the wrong side though. Florida State's scored 80+ this year only three times (UNC Greensboro, FIU, and Stetson). Safe to say the real letdown probably occurs when it hits the road Wednesday.
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Posted:
#1060
Quote Originally Posted by JackSmack:
neil any info on the Akron @ Buffalo tomorrow I would love to hear.
I saw that guy talking about NCS and FSU...How would you like to have had that under witht he halftime score at 29-18..........crazy
I had a MVC total under 143 a few years back with a halftime total come in around 34. And it went over, with no overtime session.
As for Akron, I value them as the better team. I'm not sure I get their best effort though. They're coming off games against Ohio and Kent State who they were supposed to challenge for the East division and they faltered in the most recent. Going on the road to play Buffalo is a step down in terms of motivation, especially with a big rivalry in Miami OH on deck. Better team? Yes. Situationally? Throw it out the window.
0
Moneybags NRopp
..
Thanks Nropp - Appreciate your insight!
Posted:
#1075
1/15 Results: Comments Monday...
Sides: 47-30, +30.10
Totals: 38-20, +21.80
DNP: 63-49
1/16 Notes: No interest in Providence/South Florida with all the turmoil and Providence being on the road third and final of a roady. Notre Dame on the second of a two-game roady, but they have had 5 days to prep for a team they beat just a week ago. During that time Notre Dame was preparing, St. John's battled Syracuse in a pretty big game and they faltered. Notre Dame's style of defense is going to force St. John's to shoot from the outside and make shots, something they have not done well at all this year. Value is probably on Notre Dame, but making shots in the morning on the road is tough. I'm playing Detroit as I've had it circled as a situational spot. Valpo is coming off playing what I view the toughest two defenses in the Horizon and this could be a flat spot for them. They won both of those games and now go on the road for a second, just two days after the Wright State game. Detroit is sort of concering coming off the Butler game, but it seems like that game was over before it started. Should get an eager Detroit team here and a tired Valpo team. Valpo is not all that great of shooting team, and their most recent wins they have shot extremely well. They may have caught Wright State at the right time b/c they had Butler on deck (today). Furthermore, we get a Detroit team at full strength with the return of Holman. Along with that, McCallum is coming off his worst performance of the year (3 points) after being guarded by Nored (defensive stud). Valpo doesn't match up, extremely nice bounce-back spot for Detroit. I point to Creighton as I have pointed out before with Indiana State having a rough next month, or what should be considered rough. This starts a stretch where they actually start playing teams. The home record is scary to go against, but they haven't played an offense or defense that is even remotely decent. Indiana State's defense is nothing special, and on the flip side, we are finally seeing Echenique and Lawson the court at the same time, which will be a huge key to slowing down this Indiana State offense. I value Akron better than Buffalo, but not worth it with scheduling factors. Iona's guards againts the Marist guards could be one of the worst matchups I have seen all year. Chalk is heavy, but I still see value in a game where Iona gets up quite a few shots. I point to the MST/Bradley game going over. Missouri State hasn't played a team who likes to get up and down since the first week of December. They made it a point to run at Bradley last year when they were full strength, so I assume they will come out with the same plan this year. Bradley's defense is nothing special, so we should get a nice showing from the Missouri State offense, and they have an advantage on that end at four out of the five spots on the floor. As for Bradley, they're coming off a revenge game in which they scored 53 points and Andrew Warren only scored 6 points. To put that into perspective, six of his last seven games prior to that, he had scored at least 20. Anytime he is on the court, there isn't a single guard in this conference that can match up with him. He should rebound well after the bad performance. As for the rest of the team, I don't expect to many points to come out of the post, which would be the strength of the MST defense. Bradley runs a dribble drive sort of dribble weave type of offense that runs between all three guards who can score from any spot on the floor. Bradley is probably going to shoot well to stay in the game, but all in all, this comes down to Missouri State getting the necessary points to where Bradley just has to hit a certain # to send this over. Also point to Butler and Wright State going under. Wright State's guards match up well with Butler's, and they're one of the few teams that can say that from a defensive standpoint in the Horizon. If Bradley scores 80+ for the second straight roady, so be it. Don't think they get close.
Bets
Detroit ML -120 (2 Units)
Creighton +3.5 (1 Unit)
Missouri State/Bradley Over 130 (1 Unit)
DNP: Iona -21, Butler/Wright State Under 126
GL
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