Bags Tuesday LARGE ** Arkansas vs Kentucky**

Recap of yesterday..

Horrible overall play w/ Duke. Congrats Miami backers …it was a definitely a slaughter, and one I should have given a 2nd thought 

I mentioned how Miami was going to cover w 1.) out rebounding Duke and 2) hitting 3s….should have known that the probability of this happening @ their home floor was more likely than anything else that I mentioned. 

Shaking it off and hopefully  learning from my mistakes…

Pick & write up w/ Arkansas/UK next…

11-2 ATS Last 13 

& 

17-8 Overall Ytd 

Tuesday’s Play: Kentucky -5.5 (LARGE)

KP points rating has Arkansas @ 18 @ UK slight below that @ around 16. One’s analysis would think big number discrepancy, right? Imo this is an example of numbers don’t tell one the whole story. 

Why UK covers… Arkansas is on a 2nd road game on a short turnaround. They barely got by bottom feeding SEC team in South Carolina on Saturday. Now they have 2 days to prepare for one of the most improved teams imo.

what else… Arkansas is subpar from deep. Instead they take a lot of shots near or underneath the basket. FG % should drop some w/ Tshiebwe in the paint (tip balls deflections is his specialty). Watched that UK/Kansas game, & about 8-10 points came from lobs for the jam. I would think that the experience from that game should help UK prepare some for what Arkansas loves doing….saw plenty of this against SC in their last game. 

Risk of Arkansas covering:

UK can’t play defense underneath ( doubtful), they hit 3s (doubtful..<30%), they play a really strong defensive game (most likely…top 20KP).

Overall I like UK in this spot @ home. Their only recent loss was to KU and KU is a much better & balanced offensive team than Arkansas.

Horrible spot for Arkansas imo.

Fill em’

GL

Road favorites are proven losers over time. This is a good example of that.

Fade this play IMO or PASS may be the best play.

Kentucky is home 

@Degenbeter

  Yessir…
Good reason to fade if you think

-Arkansas can handle playing under pressure on the road vs a much improved team

-play efficiently on both the perimeter and inside the paint

-UK struggles offensively vs a good Arkansas defense.

Imo, as a coach there’s more to prepare for w/ how to play UK than Arkansas. Arkansas imo  is too 1 dimensional offensively, and UK improving play w/ a better coach. 

GL today

@LB_Dirtbags

 Good luck Long Beach.

Keep up great work my friend you are one of best on cover. Just question I am in Ontario and spread is 6.5 is that still good any advice will help thank you and good luck 

Stay hot! This UK team is picking up steam, Arkansas is a lot of fun with Black, the twins,musselman, etc. but only at home  

@theMatrix24

 You knew what was coming ? So commenting on a play is Hate? WOW I admit I made the mistake I was thinking Kentucky was on the road.

Love the play !!

Get it back LB......

@NAVIN1973

My number is anything <-7. Lots of action on UK as line opened @ -3.5 at some places. 

@wolfeman3

Agree. Black is solid for a freshman…I personally think he needs to shot the ball a lot more. Twins are good, but limited offensively. Walsh is another freshman that needs to put on some weight and see being good in couple years. Overall Arkansas’s front court is soft and and they help very little offensively. 

I remember this team was favorite to win the championship, but a couple players declared to the pros, and big injuries really hurt the potential of this team. Was really rooting big time for this team early on. 

Good luck, I agree with your analysis and played the same also 

@Degenbeter

 Try knowing about where the teams are playing before you comment. If you dont know that much stay out of Lb's thread!

LB are you leaning on the under? Just curious. 

Dayton +3.5 (small)

…+18 with turnovers in their first matchup vs VCU, they’ve been taking care of the ball. Under 10 TO’s last 4 of 5. TO’s are a difference maker when playing VCU. Slow 1/2 court team also helps cut down sloppy plays. 

@Hibyefella

  UK is trying the play faster, and Arkansas plays pretty fast. Cansee UK play a little slower …1/2 court game, posting up Tshiebwe and taking advantage of the low post. No lean on the O/U

@LB_Dirtbags

 GL