Posted:
#1
1-2, -2 units
Indigo lines Fanduel openers
a) Winnipeg -5' 48' Bombers -2' 51'
b) Montreal -6 46 Als -7' 51'
c) Sask -2' 49' R'riders -2' 52'
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Indigo week 2
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Posts: 17
Posted:
#2
1) Teams that won the Grey Cup the season prior have been 7-25 ATS (-4.44) as favorites in their first game.....14-16-1 straight up
2) Away dogs before week 5 by day.....
a) Thursday.....29-18 ATS (+2.97)
b) Friday.........39-22-3 ATS (+3.27)
c) Saturday.....29-28 ATS (-1.97)
d) Sunday........9-6 ATS (-2.13)
3) Away dogs before week 5 that missed the playoffs the season prior have gone 52-35 ATS (+0.6), 36-50-1 o/u.
4) Teams that rushed for greater than 98 yards in their first game have gone 13-18 ATS, 22-11 o/u in their second game.......Bombers OVER
5) Teams that rushed for less than 81 yards in their first game have gone 8-18 ATS, 13-13 o/u in the second game.....Alouettes
6) Teams in game 2 that won, but were out-yarded in their previous game have gone 15-14 ATS, 10-20 o/u before game 5 at home ........Bombers UNDER
Play:
1) Lions +120, 2 units to win 2.4 units
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Posted:
#3
7) Favorites of less than 8 points before week 5 that had the lesser winning percentage last season between the two teams have gone 17-38-2 ATS (-5.2), 24-33 o/u.......................including 6-14 ATS in week 2, 8-12 straight up.....VERSUS Bombers
Query text......game number<5 and tpS(W) < opS(W) and F and line > -8 and week
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Posted:
#4
8) Home favorites of less than 8 points where both of the involved teams made the playoffs the season prior before week 5, 27-36 ATS....VERSUS Bombers
9) Home favorites of less than 8 points where the home team made the playoffs and the road team missed the playoffs 8-13-1 ATS before week 5............VERSUS Alouettes
10) Away dogs of less than 8 before September that won less than 3 road games last season....124-79 ATS, 61.1% (+0.5), including 87-44 ATS if their present opponent played in zero or one playoff game last season.... Redblacks, Elks, Argonauts
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Posted:
#6
Quote Originally Posted by hoody:
A week 2 team that lost week 1 and who's opponent won there week 1 game are 5-11 in week 2 31% and 3-13 s/u (week=2 and p:L and op:W and season>2015) on Bombers
A week 2 team that lost week 1 and who's opponent won there week 1 game are 5-11 in week 2 31% and 3-13 s/u (week=2 and p:L and op:W and season>2015) on Bombers
I've got 7-4 as away dogs in week 2, game 2.....p:L and op:W and AD and week=2 and game number=2
though 5-11 ATS if the line line is between -4 and +4 and the site doesn't matter....p:L and op:W and week=2 and game number=2 and -4
though 4-0 ATS on Thursday as dogs.....p:L and op:W and week=2 and game number=2 and D and site and day
20-8 ATS on Thursday on dogs through game 5.....p:L and op:W and game number and day=Thursday and D and week<6
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Posted:
#8
Betonline, considered a smart book, along with pinnacle, has their CFL lines moving as of north american Sunday night.....Bombers up to -3.5, Lions down to 1.5, and Argonauts down to 6.5.
We'll see if/when the other sportsbooks follow along.
Westgate and Circa who beat their chests proclaiming they are market makers are lagging behind per usual and haven't put out their lines yet.
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Posted:
#11
We'll try to calculate the sportsbook's power ratings after week 1 and their team season's win totals. It brings an interesting dynamic to see how a game's results will change a rating, sometimes very dramatically.
Home field has been worth about 2 points in the CFL since 2020.
Saskatchewan 30 Winnipeg 28.5 Edmonton 24
BC 29.5 Calgary 25.5 Toronto 24
Montreal 29 Hamilton 26 Ottawa 24
The above would lead to these being next week's lines
Home team
Hamilton +1' British Columbia................I'd make this +3
Ottawa -3 Toronto..............................I'd make this pik
Edmonton +3 Montreal............................I'd make this +3'
Calgary +2.5 Saskatchewan....................I'd make this Cal -1
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Posted:
#12
Plays....
adding:
3) Argonauts +6, -104, 1 unit
Away dogs of <8 that won less than 3 road games the season prior with greater rest before week 6 have gone 17-3 ATS (+7.2), 15-5 straight up (+3.4), 6-14 o/u (-6.3).........average line/total +3.86/50.08....average score....23.6-20.2......ON Argonauts.....if this is a divisional matchup, this moves to 7-0 ATS.
query text....AD and tpS(W@A, N=9) < 3 and month < 9 and line < 8 and rest > o:rest and week < 6
Earlier plays....
2) Lions +120, 2 units
1) Tiger Cats +3, 2 units
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Posted:
#13
Plays:
1) Tiger Cats +3, 2 units winner......Winnipeg's defense is not going to be this bad throughout the season, right?....they get a week off next week to stew about it. In their defense Calgary and Hamilton will probably be top three offenses in the CFL this season.
2) Argonauts +6, 1 unit
3) Lions +120, 2 units
CFL writer's picks are now 7-13 straight up after going 2-3 on Thursday, the majority taking the Bombers.
All five writers have the Alouettes Friday night and 3 out of 5 have the Lions on Saturday.
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Posted:
#16
Lovely....next week's CFL lines have been posted by fanduel
Home team away team
Hamilton +1' British Columbia 57'.....early indicator on Lions
Ottawa -2' Toronto 53'
Edmonton +4' Montreal 51'..............early indicator on Alouettes
Calgary +1' Saskatchewan 50'........Calgary went a combined 5-0 versus Winnipeg and Saskatchewan last season
Keep in mind that home dogs that score >20 points cover 69% of the time in the CFL and 24% of the time if they score less than 21 points.
Teams that rush for over 100 yards cover 65% of the time in the CFL, 70% of the time as underdogs (by an average of over 6 points per game).
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