Indigo week 16

11-8, +4.95 units

Calgary remembered to run the ball in getting a tie with the Als....underdogs with the worse winning percentage are now 10-1 ATS over the last 3 or 4 weeks.

Ottawa a Jeckyl and Hyde team away and home this season....big game between them and the Alouettes....Redblacks will need it if they have any chance of winning the East.

Edmonton has been the best team in the league the last six weeks....however if they lose this week to the Bombers they might be golfing in the Bahamas when it's playoff time in November.  On the other hand if they were to sweep the Bombers they could come 1st or 2nd in the West.

Tiger Cats are now a dangerous team......they play at Toronto who has double revenge.  THAT should be an interesting game....after that Hamilton goes to British Columbia to take on the Lions, with the Lions needing it to win the division.....that game is no longer a gimme for the Lions.  I suppose, if by some miracle the Cats won the rest of their games (could they really?) they could still make the playoffs probably in a crossover situation.

Despite how terrible Calgary and Saskatchewan have been the last two months, they both are still in the playoff picture and Saskatchewan would remain in third place with a win at Calgary and the Stamps would for all intents and purposes be eliminated from the playoffs.  The Riders though, seem to figure out ways of losing football games.....if they were to come a dog of more than 3 points I'd ride with the Sasquatches as though they lose, they manage to lose in the closest, most excruciating ways possible.

Indigo lines....

Toronto     -4        49   Hamilton

Ottawa      -3       47  Montreal

Calgary     -3       52  Saskatchewan

Edmonton -3'      47  Winnipeg

Plays:

1)  Elks +3.....2 units

Adding:

2)  Stampeders +3............2 units

3)  Redblacks +2'..............2 units

Comments:  

The Roughriders have not won a football game since late July...call me dubious of their ability to go on the road and beat a team by more than three points.

Redblacks play better than anyone in the league on their home turf.

Do they have the janitor making the CFL lines while the manager of the line making firm is out with his secretary, or what?

What a MNF game!...don't expect the Eagles to get themselves off the mat after that defeat.

CFL.ca simulation now has the Elks with a 60% chance of making the playoffs...and a 22% of winning the Grey Cup, which equates to 4.36 to 1.  My 150 dollar ticket would pay around 7900 dollars of profit if the Elks won it, or around 53 to 1.

That calculates out that my betting ticket would be worth around 2100 dollars right now.  I am sure their odds would increase should the Elks defeat the Bombers this weekend, setting up a showdown the following week for second place in the division the following week.  The Elks would hold the tiebreaker should Edmonton and Winnipeg end up with the same record.

Bombers won the season series with BC going 2 and 1.

Elks and BC went 1 and 1.

Bombers and Elks play a home and home series the next two weeks.

Highest echelon tiebreaker is head-to-head record against all tied clubs.  If Winnipeg wins both or splits the next two games versus the Elks they would own the tiebreaker should BC, Winnipeg and Edmonton all end up tied.  

If the Bombers and Elks split the Blue Bombers would hold a two game advantage in the standings.  The Bombers do finish the season against the three East teams.

The next highest tiebreaker after head-to-head records is net points in games between those other clubs that your team is tied with so expect if one team is crushing the other this weekend for them not to let their foot off the gas.

Winnipeg is 5-3 in the division....Edmonton is 4-2 with Edmonton having games left with the two weakest teams in the division...versus Calgary and Saskatchewan.

I would guess that the Elks would finish 9-9 and finish in 2nd place in the West.

BC finishes with Hamilton, Calgary at home, then at Saskatchewan and then at home to an Alouettes team that will probably not care about the game.  No excuses for the Lions...they should come in first.....though Hamilton is all of a sudden a team to be reckoned with.

Adding....

Plays:

4)  Saints (NFL) pik, -105,......2 units

3)  Stampeders +3................2 units

2)  Redblacks +125...............1 unit

1)  Elks +3' -120..................2 units

strong opinion.....Tiger Cats

@Indigo999

 Thanks for all the research.

good luck.

im riding Hamilton tonite plus 6.5

under 52.5 too!

i think 6.5 is too big for such an important game..

i have a hard time laying laying cash on Calgary.. hoepfull the line hits 4. And I will take Calgary plus 4 and Sask ML.

Regret taking the Stamps....will need to replace some parts next season....their defense is not too good, and their quarterback will need replacing.

Interesting how the three teams that started 0-4, the Bombers, Tiger Cats and Elks are the cash cows now.

Crossover is in play for the west now with the Argos falling today.....their schedule is not easy as they play MTL, @WPG, OTT, @EDM....that last game could be for both of those teams' playoff lives..

Big game(s) for the Elks this week, and next....they will be cutting it fine if they win only one...will probably need to be 9-9 to make the playoffs. I may take them both games. I believe they are better than the Bombers now, but of course the Bombers have all the playoff and big game experience.

The Lions will have the easiest schedule going forward, but ti gets complicated for them if they lose at home next week against the suddenly formidable Tiger Cats. They lose the tie breaker with the Bombers and probably with the Elks.

A final 10-8 record probably wins the west division...Winnipeg plays @EDM, EDM, @ HAM, TOR, @MON....if the Als win this week @Ottawa, the Als probably will have first place locked up by the final week, which then should be a gimme for the Bombers.  However if they lose, they do get Ottawa at home in a few weeks and Ottawa is nothing special away from their home ground this season.

Almost certainly there will continue to be opportunities to back the Tiger Cats as big dogs (@BC, WPG, CAL, @OTT).  BLM now  looks like the stud he used to be and their defense has undergone a HUGE change.

And Calgary, well, the same can be true of them, only in reverse,........certainly on the road you would fade them and probably at home as well.

Cancelled my Redblacks moneyline play and took them at +3 instead.

plays:

1)  Elks +3'...........2 units

2)  Redblacks +3...1 unit

3)  Stamps +2'......2 units..........loser

4)  Saints NFL -105......2 units 

5)  Jax State -6.....1 unit

6)  SMU +2'..........1 unit

7)  Kansas +110....1 unit

8)  Ohio +20.........1 unit

9)  J Madison +10'.. 1 unit

10) UTEP +9..........1 unit

11) ECU +6'...........1 unit

12) NM St +16'......1 unit

13) Oregon St -4'...1 unit

Next week early lines...

1)  Winnipeg -3  48  Edmonton

2)  BC Lions  -4 47  Hamilton

3)  Sask        pik 50 Ottawa

4)  Toronto  +2'  45 Montreal

Leans: Hamilton, Alouettes (especially if they lose to the Redblacks), Elks, Riders.....keep in mind the best days to play dogs is Friday