CFL Week 8 HAM@BC

16-11-0 (-0.55) Units.  Still hauling around my preseason losses, like an albatross around my neck, lol.

The Ticats and Lions split their 2024 season series 1-1, with a total of 133 points scored.

This is the first game between these two teams.  They will meet again in week 10.  BC has a week 9 bye.

Rest advantage for this week's game.  HAM (6), BC (7) days off.  1 days rest advantage for BC.

This is a home & home series with BC off week 9.

Week 10 rest advantage for BC (10), HAM (4)!  After tonight's game in BC, HAM then travels to play @ EDM week 9.  HAM will only have (5) days of rest & EDM will have (7) days of rest.  Then we have the week 10 rematch, @ HAM, where BC will be coming off their week 9 bye with (10) days of rest & HAM only having (4) days of rest.  6 days rest advantage for BC.!!

I am looking for HAM to win tonight @ BC, then BC to win in 2 weeks @ HAM week 10, probably catching points for sure, especially if they lose tonight in BC.

Now if BC blows the doors off of HAM tonight, then I will be looking to back HAM @ home week 10.

My eye test tells me BC is struggling & HAM stock is on the rise.

However a good database can be confusing.  Let's look.

When BC plays as a Home team, as a fav, vs non Non Division opponent, - Before a non division game (week 9 & then week 10) they are 27-5-0 SU, 20-11-1 ATS, with the O/U 16-15-1.  This stat applies to tonight's game & technically to week 10's game.  We don't know week 10's spread?

When HAM plays as a pk - +3 underdog, total is 54.5 or more, vs Non Conference opponent, they are 3-7-0 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, O/U 1-9-0.  This stat applies to tonight's game.

So, in the past, I would back BC tonight, -2.5 according to the database & look to back HAM in 2 weeks back in HAM.  Makes sense.  Having watched every game this season, I like HAM tonight!!  Therein lies the problem.

Everyone should be backing BC tonight according to the stats, @ home, urgency to win, all of that.

I would not be surprised if this is the last Big effort from HAM tonight knowing their next 2 games are on short rest.  @ EDM, @ Home VS BC.  If HAM loses tonight @ BC, I will be looking to back them @ home, week 10 VS BC, probably getting a short line @ home but they will be tired!! NO Doubt about it!!  NOT an ideal spot for HAM in 2 weeks.

It's what the books want.  "The Opposite Effect"  Folks back BC tonight, they lose, they then take HAM in 2 weeks & lose again.

So the plan is... lol, If HAM wins tonight @ BC, I then back BC in week 10 @ HAM.  No doubt catching a goodly amount of points.

If BC wins tonight, I add a little more weight around my neck until next week.  Sumbitch.

HAM leads the league in pass knockdowns & Interceptions & I still contend there is something not right with Nathan Rourke, not to mention his front 7 cannot protect him.  He was scrambling last week.  He looked like he was in Spain, running with the bulls, lol.  He also got lucky with some of those scrambles.

I will keep looking @ this game...

Can you believe I have a turkey in the oven.  It's only a billion degrees outside, right now.

Hey, A MAN's gotta eat, that's right.  

GL.

 

 

 

Almost forgot,

HAM +2.5 ATS for the full game.  1.1 to win 1

GL.

Speaking of Home & Home series, TOR won last night & they are back in WPG this Fri night.  Both teams with (5) days of rest advantage.

Will both back-ups be playing again?  Probably.

Game Note:  This will be the last Sunday Night Football game for the CFL.  No more Sunday games!.  Yes.

I never liked Sunday games.  Goodbye.

Recent Meetings: Over their last 6 meetings, they have been split at 3 wins apiece back to 2022. The Tiger-Cats have won 3 of the
last 4 visits to BC Place Stadium. Overall, the Lions hold a 58-42-3 edge since 1961.

Bo Levi Mitchell is 103-41-2 in his career as a starter and 13-16 in 29 starts for
Hamilton. Against BC he is 12-7 for his career.

West vs East.  Normally an Eastern team travelling out West, really has to be focused on the game. They tend to give up in the 4th QTR.  That is because most Eastern teams have an Eastern QB not used to playing out West.

This is not the case here.  Bo-Levi Mitchell is a Western QB.  Played his whole career out West.  BC is a bit of an indoor stadium, Bo is used to playing outdoors but I somehow feel he might not mind playing this game a bit indoors.  Climate controlled more or less.  Perfect place to play for an elder statesman QB.

 

Week 9 Lines.

 

CGY -4.5 

OTT 52.5

-----------

TOR 51.5

WPG -8.5

-----------

HAM -3.5

EDM 54.5

-----------

SSK -2.5

MTL 49.5

 

FanDuel odds.

3 Home dogs.

Good luck my friend

amen-Friday Night Football way better in my opinion--years ago growing up in Ottawa I used to like the Thursday nighters in the summer near the end of the workweek--then Sat/Sunday afternoons after Labour day once cottage country closes up ...

It is a Canadian game, after all.

Well, last Sunday Night game for this 2025 season.

They will be back next year.

Hamilton play calling 

 

run the ball. Take what they can give you.

Unreal..

 

Nice win Chef 

Unbelievable, HAM wins SU & gets the spread job done.  Nice.

I will be looking to back BC @ HAM, after week 9 bye, @ HAM, no doubt getting pts.

Thank you HAM tonight.  (Look , there is no way HAM should have won or covered tonight.) still I will take it!

Gl.

Nice call Chef-yeah BC looked like they had it in the bag being up by 10 late but it's the CFL right!