Hi everyone,
I didn't have time for a write up last week, but had a pretty mediocre week until I hammered every under I could find live when Bo Levi went down. I have some thoughts to share for this week though.
Edmonton (-6.5) vs Ottawa - As ugly as it is, I think this is too many points to be giving Ottawa. Edmonton got majorly fraud checked last week, and going home I think this should be closer to 3-4 points. Ottawa is a dumpster fire, but they seem to somehow be in every game. I'm not sold on the Elks, and Ottawa is going to slowly improve. Ottawa is winning either this week or next.
Bet: Ottawa +7 (-115) on Play Alberta
Winnipeg (+2.5) vs Toronto - Winnipeg has some QB issues right now. Personally, I think Collaros wasn't hurt and they were just looking to make a change last week. Regardless of who the QB is (Brown, Elgersma, Collaros), I think Winnipeg should be favoured. Toronto got absolutely obliterated by Calgary last week (which I was in attendance for) and is about to play their 5th straight road game. They looked tired. I think Winnipeg comes out and takes care of business. I think the injury news is going to scare people off, but I think any other option is as good if not better than Collaros.
Lean: Brady Oliveira rushing yards.
Bet: Winnipeg +2.5 (-115) on Bet365
Montreal (-3.5) vs Calgary - This should be the game of the week, and I think the value is on Calgary but I am not sure i'll get there. This also has the highest total of the week but I also am not sure if I am getting there. I have a feeling Montreal's defence is not as good as we think, which could be bad news considering how hot VA has been. I do have some props I might target, but I'll list them as leans as my books don't have any numbers out.
Lean: Tyson Philpot receiving yards over - playing his brother and hometown team, I think Tyson has a big game. He has gone over 100 in 3/4 games, and I think Calgary's pass D is weak.
Saskatchewan (-8.5) vs Hamilton - This has ugly written all over it to me. Jake Dolegala is starting for Hamilton and I am telling you that is going to be ugly. Before starting, Hamilton already signed a QB. This guy is going to have 2-3 first half INT's. It's a big number so I probably won't play it, but you would have to give me 20 points to back Dolegala. I do like the under though as I don't know how Hamilton is going to produce offence, and I do somewhat like their defence now that it's healthy.
Lean: Larry Rountree Jr. Rushing Yards Over - his numbers are usually low and he has had a good start to the season. With a bad QB, he may have a big workload.
KeeSean Johnson Receiving Yards over - I hit this last week, and it's time we start respecting him as a top WR in the CFL.
Bet: Under 54.5 (-115) Bet 365
Fun parlay - Calgary +7.5, Saskatchewan ML (-105)
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