CFL Week 5 Early plays

15-4-0 (+7.25) Units.

 Sorry it is week 6

CGY@SSK : SSK -4.5, 1.1 to win 1.

OTT@HAM : HAM -4.5, 1.1 to win 1.

BC@EDM : EDM +3, 1.1 to win 1.  QB hate game!  Can't wait.

Lines are on the move already.

GL.

Rest advantage for week 6.

CGY (7) @ SSK (12) coming off a week 5 bye.

OTT (5) @ HAM (7)

BC (7) @ EDM 6)

Only 3 games this week.  Teams on a bye.  TOR, MTL, WPG.

Just thoughts...

SSK coming off of a bye, once the game notes are released I will have their history in this exact spot.  The OTT@HAM game is a home & home series, typically whichever team wins game 1, take the other team game 2.

The BC@EDM game has EDM going into a bye week 7.

SSK coming off a bye week...

Since 2017, 11-5-0 SU, 0-0-0 this season, last year, 2-1-0 SU, before that, 2-0-0 SU.

I look at this game like the BC@EDM game.  CGY waltzes into Mosaic Stadium, gets the win, year after year.  Same thing with BC.  Year after year BC waltzes into Commonwealth Stadium, confuses EDM, and gets the win.  Year after year!  If you look up those teams records, you would be like, it's CGY & BC all the way!!  How can you not take CGY & BC in these spots?  SSK & EDM teams are not those teams of yesteryear.  These 2 teams are completely different teams.  CGY still has their same coach but that is where it ends.  ALL new players, coaches assistants, QB's, for both teams.  Heck SSK is still undefeated this season.  Does that sound like the SSK of old.  I don't think so.  I still say BC is Undersized!  EDM is not.  BC might be a little over confident with their past history & performance BUT so was Napoleon at the battle of Waterloo.  He sure got his comeuppance. 

Give me SSK -4.5 & EDM +3 

I already said if CGY beats WPG last week, look to back WPG @ home in week 7 vs CGY.  WPG is on a bye this week. 

Also next week we have the Watermelon Smash game.  SSK@BC

"Established in the 2023 season, Watermelon Smash brings together the two fan bases for a fun competition on Terry Fox Plaza, with watermelon eating serving as the main event. The Lions have won both of the previous games, prevailing 35-20 last season and 19-9 in the inaugural bash."

Where else are you going to find Excellent handicapping like this, lol, lol.

That's right.  BC is 2-0 SU & ATS versus SSK for these Smash games.  

Here is how I see it.  SSK wins & covers vs CGY this week.  EDM wins & covers vs BC.  BC defeats SSK week 7 (Smash Game) and hands SSK their first loss of the 2025 season.  EDM goes on their week 7 bye.  WPG gets their revenge.

GL.

Also for some reason, folks sure like these week 6 games to go Over the posted total!

That HAM game total is up 5 pts.  

Remember, you cannot bet a total at Tim Hortons Field until you know the exact weather report!  Forget about the rain.  It is all about the wind.  That stadium is a half field stadium.  On your TV, the wind travels from left to right.  Teams can only score when they have the wind, literally!  These wind games come with a high variance.  Why they angled the stadium the way they did, is beyond me.

I have watched high wind games & seen both Overs & Unders.  High variance.

Maybe the game will not be windy.  Maybe?

Thanks as always CFLChef.  

Always luv reading your pregame notes and of course your CFL insight. 

@CFLChef

OTT@HAM : When HAM plays as a -3.5-6.5, home fav, vs Div opponent, the total is between 51 - 54 pts.  The last 11 times, those games went 1-10-0 to the Under.

Maybe a 30-40 % chance of rain.  Up to 20 km winds.

I am on HAM -4.5 not on the total BUT 5 points to the Over.  That is saying something.  Someone or some group likes the Over in the Hammer on Sat night.

When OTT played as a road underdog, a total of 54.5 or more... 3-7-0 to the Under, last 10 games.

Hmm.