CFL Week 4 - Thursday and Friday

After having a good start to my season (15-8, 36.32% ROI) I've decided I'm going to start posting my thoughts weekly along with my bets. This is post 1 of 2 as it was too long

Thursday June 25 - Edmonton @ Winnipeg (-2.5 -120, 54.5 -120)

This opened at Edmonton +5.5. When I saw this, it caught me by surprise. I would make these teams close to even on a neutral site, maybe favour Winnipeg by 1 or 2. Edmonton has had a great start to the season. Winnipeg, who I was high on pre-season, has not looked amazing. I expect Justin Rankin to have a field day on this Bombers defence. Winnipeg should be able to keep up though, which surprised me when I saw this as the lowest total of the week. Both offenses are capable, and both defences are questionable. I will keep my +5.5 and look for a cheaper ML on Winnipeg which may come with further injury news.

Some notes:

- Short week for Edmonton

- Nick Anderson (best LB on Edmonton, maybe most important D, is likely to be out)

- Edmonton O-Line injuries will likely catch up to them, Ceresna/Jefferson could be a problem.

Bets:

Elks +5.5 (-125) - Play Alberta - Bet to +3.5

Over 54.5 (-110) - Bet365

Edmonton +10.5/Over44.5 (-110) - Bet365

Leans:

Justin Rankin rushing over - keep an eye on, I haven't seen any numbers. I would play the over if it's 100 or less.

Friday June 26 - Toronto v Saskatchewan (-3.5, 56.5)

I think this line a is a overreaction to last week. Toronto blew out a horrible Ottawa team, and Saskatchewan had a poor second half win vs Calgary. Toronto is bad. Chad Kelly is really good, but this defence is horrific. Saskatchewan is still power ranked 1 for me. No bets for me yet, but if it hits 3, I will fire. I also am looking to see the number on Trevor Harris's passing yard over. 

Notes

- I don't expect A.J. Ouellette to play. Bertrand-Hudon is a solid backup, and this news could push the line to 3. Another reason I like Harris' passing over as they may throw it more. 

- Keep an eye on Chad Kelly's passing total.

- Although this is a Toronto "home" game, this is in Saskatchewan due to the World Cup

Leans

Saskatchewan ATS (3 or better)

Trevor Harris Passing Yard Over

@itdoesntmaata

 I will just reply here, ignore the title. Post 2/2

Saturday June 27 - Calgary Stampeders v BC Lions (-1.5, 56.5)

Going into this week, I wanted to back BC but I can't get there. Their injuries are a real problem. Last week I hit Nick Cenacle ATTD, so I may look there again but I can't back this BC team. Calgary can figure out, both their games have been close and they are due for some positive regression. I would pass though with the injury uncertainty. Maybe lean BC if Hatcher plays. This is also a neutral site in Kelowna, so I would make the line about the same. I also considered the under, but not sure I'll get there.

Notes

- Game is in Kelowna BC

- BC is injured badly

Leans

- Whoever is WR1/WR2 for BC receiving over - Cenacle?

- Under

- It looks like BC is getting a entirely new D Line - Dedrick Mills rushing over?

Sunday June 28 - Ottawa Redblacks @ Montreal Alouettes (-8.5, 55.5)

I get it, Ottawa is terrible. But when I look at the talent they have, they shouldn't be this bad. It will take time for them to gel, but they will be improving. Their main issue is Jake Maier making a back breaking play at a key moment. Now does moving Dru Brown to Winnipeg help his confidence? I say this, but nobody should be running to the window to back Ottawa, but on open I found a 11.5 on Play Alberta and I took it. I do have a bit of buyers remorse but honestly you don't often see double digit numbers early in the season, and I get the feeling teams tend to cover them. If this gets anywhere near 7, I'll probably take some Montreal though.

Notes

- Ottawa is terrible

- At some point Geno Lewis will come alive

Picks

Ottawa +11.5 -110 (Play Alberta) - bit of buyers remorse though