CFL WEEK 16 (40-19)

The Argos snuck by the Alouettes thanks to a Fajardo INT in the last minute and a game tying blocked field goal by Dewayne Hendrix on the final play, the Elks went into Mosaic and had a huge 2nd half to seal a big win, the Bombers laid a stinker in Hamilton after coming off the blowout win in the Banjo Bowl, and the Lions scored 3 TDs in the final 2:23 to steal one from the RedBlacks.

37 of the 59 games this year have been decided in the final 3 minutes!

Week 16, all picks moneyline (with ATS/spread discussion below too):

SASKATCHEWAN
Dolegala is looking more and more like a CFL starter completing 20/34 for 213 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. But where has the run game gone?! The Riders need to re-establish their run game if they want continued offensive success with Dolegala. The Riders gave up 30 points to the Elks last week in the 2nd half and let the game slip away after being up 27-20 in the 3rd quarter. Morrow and Lanier didn't practice on Tuesday, hopefully those two can play especially Lanier. The Riders are still in a great spot to make the playoffs as they are 2 games ahead of the Stamps who have a tough remaining schedule, and 2 games ahead of the Elks (Elks have a game in hand) having already won the season series incase of tie-breaker.

After starting the season 3-3, Ottawa has now lost 7 straight games. In 5 of those games they've lost by 4 points or less. Ottawa must feel so defeated. Ottawa also lost the reliable Lewis Ward for the year and signed 2 more kickers. The RedBlacks played a great game against BC last week but completely self imploded in the 4th quarter giving up 23 points and not scoring a single point themselves. Ottawa established somewhat of a run game with Williams getting 18 carries for 66 yards. This is a losing team and they continue to find ways to lose and will continue to do so this week. Ottawa won't make the playoffs. Riders cover the -2.
24-20 Riders

BC
The Lions are in a bit of a trouble in my eyes. They are barely running the ball at all and have the worst run offense in the league. Adams has now thrown for 300+ yards in 5 straight games but they can't just keep relying on the passing game especially come playoff time with the Bombers and Argos lurking. Mizzell had as many rushes as Adams did, both with 5 carries a piece. I was expecting much more from the Lions coming out of their bye week in a game they definitely didn't deserve to win. The Lions scored 3 TDs in the games final 2:23 and the turning point was down 37-21, Ottawa attempted a 50 yard field goal and missed which BC took to the house for a TD. BC has a chance to tie Winnipeg at 10-4 if they win this week (Winnipeg is on a bye week).

After losing 22 home games in a row and setting the North American record for most consecutive home losses, the Elks will try to win a 3rd straight game at home this week! How the tides have turned. The Elks, however, have not scored a single point against BC in 2 games this year being outscored 49-0 combined in both games. But as my Riders found out last week it is hard to beat the same team 3 times in the same season. I don't know how you game plan for a QB like Tre Ford, the kid reminds me of Michael Vick without the cannon arm. Once Tre decides to run, it's like watching grown men chasing after a kid. Even setting up a defender to spy does no good as Tre just runs around/right by him and also leaves one less defender in coverage if Tre decides to throw after extending the play. Let's not forget Kevin Brown's huge game on the ground, he had more rushing yards (175) then Ford had passing yards (173). This is going to be a super close game where I believe the Elks defense loses the game for them, not Tre Ford and the offense. Edmonton covers +6.5.
29-26 Lions

CALGARY
The Montreal Alouettes are the definition of a streaky team. They started the season with 2 straight wins, 3 straight losses, 4 straight wins, and 4 straight losses. They had the Argos on the ropes until a Fajardo INT with 1 minute remaining in the game and blocked field goal on the final play sealed their fate. The INT wasn't all Fajardo's fault as he was getting hit as he was throwing the ball. Stanbeck practiced on Tuesday and should suit up to play. Once again even without Stanbeck Montreal barely ran the ball against Toronto. Fajardo and backup QB Evans combined for 6 carries, Fletcher and Antwi combined for 10. Brutal. They need to run the ball more just like BC needs to!

The Stamps are coming off their bye week and teams are now 12-4 off the bye after BC barely beat Ottawa last week. Teams coming off the bye and playing at home are 10-3 this year. The Stamps also have a 17-season playoff appearance streak on the line. Like I said last week I don't remember a time that Calgary hasn't made the playoffs in as long as I can remember, this is unknown territory for them. Calgary is coming off a bye whereas Montreal is playing in their 9th of 12 consecutive weeks in a row without a bye (week 7 was Montreal's last bye). Micah Awe has been fined 3 times this season for high hits on QBs, I consider him a dirty player. This game is the toughest of the week to predict as you can make a case for both sides winning this one. Does Montreal get it right after losing 4 in a row, or does Calgary's desperation show coming out of the bye week in a must win game with their season on the line? I am siding with the more desperate and well rested team in this one, but Calgary must establish a run game with their 2 headed backfield.
27-25 Stampeders

TORONTO
Hamilton and Edmonton have now won a combined 7 of their last 9 games. Hamilton has now won 3 of their last 4 with 2 of those wins coming against the Bombers and Lions. Their defensive unit and Powell maturing infront of our eyes has been a big part of their recent success. Powell leads the league in completion percentage believe it or not. Powell had an OK day against a top defense going 20/26 for 236 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Butler added 82 yards on the ground. Hamilton is playing some great team ball the last couple of weeks and are starting to shape into form just in time for the playoffs.

The Argos already clinched the East Division with 6 games remaining and they've already beaten Hamilton 3 times this year. It is hard enough to beat a team twice, let alone 3 times, now imagine the 4th! Toronto is on a different level and I can't see them resting players with 1/3 of the season still remaining. Kelly and Dinwiddie are hardcore competitors and want to win every game, I don't see them letting up/resting players yet. Having said that one has to wonder what the Argos motivation level will be for this game clinching the East last week whereas the Ti-Cats are currently riding at an all-time high. Ever since Milanovich took over as offensive coordinator, Powell and the offense have looked good. Toronto wins, but Hamilton covers the +9.5.
31-27 Argos

Good luck!

TEASER: 2-2 last week, 18-6 overall

TEASER (5 pts):
EDM +11.5
HAM +14.5

TOP OFFENSIVE GRADE: Edmonton Elks - what an impressive showing by the Elks offense last week. Other then the 1st quarter where they put up a goose egg, they scored 10+ points in the last 3 quarters on the road in a hostile environment against a good defense. Ford only threw for 173 yards but it was Kevin Brown who had a huge game rushing for 175 yards on 19 carries and 1 TD. Ford added 70 yards on the ground. This offense is tough to stop once Brown gets going and Ford starts running and extending plays.

TOP DEFENSIVE GRADE: Hamilton Tiger-Cats - a big reason for the Ti-Cats recent success has been the play of their defense. They held a potent Winnipeg offense to 23 points. Collaros threw for 344 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs. Oliviera only had 46 yards on the ground. The defense used to be the strength of this team and it looks like they are slowly rounding back into form.

BYE WEEK: Winnipeg Blue Bombers - Two years in a row now that Winnipeg smashed the Riders in the face in the Banjo Bowl and then went into Hamilton the week after as big favorites and lost. Classic letdown spot last week for Winnipeg and it showed. I am slightly concerned for how careless Collaros has been with the football lately and this year in general. Since coming back from injury in week 12, Collaros has thrown 7 INTs in 4 games. That's not the Collaros we know since he joined Winnipeg back in 2019. He's had the top offensive line since signing with Winnipeg but that O-line is also starting to show it's age a bit as well as Collaros. They are still the most battle tested team in the league and the top team in my opinion.

POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 15 (# in brackets shows previous weeks ranking):
1)Toronto (1)
2)Winnipeg (2)
3)BC (3)
4)Hamilton (6)
5)Edmonton (8)
6)Saskatchewan (4)
7)Montreal (5)
8)Calgary (7)
9)Ottawa (9)

Five changes this week! Toronto remains on top with another win, although Winnipeg lost and BC won the Bombers still hold the #2 spot and BC remains at #3. BC's win last week didn't impress me at all and they were very fortunate to beat the worst team in the league coming off the bye and at home. Hamilton jumps from 6 to the 4 spot after winning 2 games in a row including beating the Bombers and Lions in their last 4 games, Edmonton jumps up to 5 from 8 after beating the Riders @ Mosaic and winning 3 of their last 4 games. The Riders drop from 4 to 6 after losing a winnable game against the Elks at home last week but remain above Montreal since the Riders are capable of beating the top tier teams and Montreal is not. Montreal drops from 5 to 7 after blowing the game last week against Toronto and continue to lose against the top 3 teams. Although Calgary was on a bye, they dropped from 7 to 8 as other teams near them in the standings (Hamilton and Edmonton) won their games respectively. Ottawa remains at 9 after blowing a 16 point lead late in the 4th quarter to BC. Montreal, Hamilton and Saskatchewan are deadlocked at 6-7 in the standings.

@slushie007

 Great write-ups as usual Slushie

Good luck with your picks this week 

We are going to need you here next season slushie007.

Always a good read.