Before I give my full write up, I wanted to share one prop that caught my eye:
Chad Kelly Under 347.5 Passing Yards (bet365) - Chad has cleared this number in only 3/9 games, and just once since week 2. Hamilton gave up 207 in the air last week vs Sask, and have covered this number in 7/10 games this season. When these two met earlier, Kelly had 322. Although it may be scary fading Kelly against the number here, I think Hamilton's D is being underrated here.
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Hey everyone,
Before I give my full write up, I wanted to share one prop that caught my eye:
Chad Kelly Under 347.5 Passing Yards (bet365) - Chad has cleared this number in only 3/9 games, and just once since week 2. Hamilton gave up 207 in the air last week vs Sask, and have covered this number in 7/10 games this season. When these two met earlier, Kelly had 322. Although it may be scary fading Kelly against the number here, I think Hamilton's D is being underrated here.
Ottawa @ Montreal (-13.5) - Huge number, but not undeserving. Ottawa is horrible, and Montreal is coming off a bye flying on all cylinders. My general rule though, is take the big number to cover in the CFL. Ottawa's defense has shows some flashes of competency, but I can't back this team right now. If I were to pick a side I would take the points with Ottawa, but it won't happen. I may make a SGP with Montreal, but only below a touchdown.
Winnipeg @ Edmonton (-4.5) - If you told me this would be the line way back in week 1, I wouldn't believe you. I still am not sold on the Elks, but I don't know if I love backing Winnipeg as they are firmly on the banned list. Talent aside though, Winnipeg has it. They are just so wildly inconsistent, and I think a bit banged up with Oliveria and Demski missing practices. I think if this gets close to 6 I will take the Bombers and I may even at this price. I think it's just too wide for me. I do agree with others to fade Rankin again - I think it's clear that he is banged up. Winnipeg does have a poor rushing D though, so it's not the worst spot, I may just pivot to Leake.
Bet: Rankin Rushing Under
Lean: Winnipeg ATS
Hamilton @ Toronto (-4.5) - I think this game for me is totally dependent on who is at QB for Hamilton. I like Toronto to cover a slug fest with Frost in, but not sure about Ford as there is just such a wide range of outcomes with that guy. As I mentioned previously, Hamilton has a good defence, so if we get Frost in the under could be a look as well as Toronto to cover. I will be keeping an eye on this one.
Bet: Chad Kelly Passing Yards Under (outlined above)
Lean: Toronto ATS with Frost in
Saskatchewan @ BC (-1.5) - I still think Saskatchewan is banged up here. They might get Emilus back but across the board this team is injured. Now BC hasn't looked very good but I think they have enough to get this one. It's going to be a important one, and I think Saskatchewan just won't have their best foot forward here.
Bet: BC ML (-118) FD
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Ottawa @ Montreal (-13.5) - Huge number, but not undeserving. Ottawa is horrible, and Montreal is coming off a bye flying on all cylinders. My general rule though, is take the big number to cover in the CFL. Ottawa's defense has shows some flashes of competency, but I can't back this team right now. If I were to pick a side I would take the points with Ottawa, but it won't happen. I may make a SGP with Montreal, but only below a touchdown.
Winnipeg @ Edmonton (-4.5) - If you told me this would be the line way back in week 1, I wouldn't believe you. I still am not sold on the Elks, but I don't know if I love backing Winnipeg as they are firmly on the banned list. Talent aside though, Winnipeg has it. They are just so wildly inconsistent, and I think a bit banged up with Oliveria and Demski missing practices. I think if this gets close to 6 I will take the Bombers and I may even at this price. I think it's just too wide for me. I do agree with others to fade Rankin again - I think it's clear that he is banged up. Winnipeg does have a poor rushing D though, so it's not the worst spot, I may just pivot to Leake.
Bet: Rankin Rushing Under
Lean: Winnipeg ATS
Hamilton @ Toronto (-4.5) - I think this game for me is totally dependent on who is at QB for Hamilton. I like Toronto to cover a slug fest with Frost in, but not sure about Ford as there is just such a wide range of outcomes with that guy. As I mentioned previously, Hamilton has a good defence, so if we get Frost in the under could be a look as well as Toronto to cover. I will be keeping an eye on this one.
Bet: Chad Kelly Passing Yards Under (outlined above)
Lean: Toronto ATS with Frost in
Saskatchewan @ BC (-1.5) - I still think Saskatchewan is banged up here. They might get Emilus back but across the board this team is injured. Now BC hasn't looked very good but I think they have enough to get this one. It's going to be a important one, and I think Saskatchewan just won't have their best foot forward here.
Adding: Brady Oliveria Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (didn't practice all week), Zander Horvath Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (feels low, he's been on fire and taking more and more reps away from Butler)
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Adding: Brady Oliveria Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (didn't practice all week), Zander Horvath Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (feels low, he's been on fire and taking more and more reps away from Butler)
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