CFL WEEK 11 (27-12)

Had my whole write up almost done, accidentally hit the back button on my keyboard and lost it all.  I'll try to rewrite what I can and won't make that n00b mistake again.


Someone needs to write a movie/Netflix series on the Elks.  Up 22, Collaros pulls a Cornelius and throws a pick six when getting tackled all while getting injured in the same play.  In comes Dru Brown bringing his team all the way back for a 9 point win, bringing the Elks home losing streak to 22 consecutive home games, making them 0-9 on the season.  You can't make this stuff up.  "Up 22, end up losing their 22nd consecutive home game, lost by 9 points, making them 0-9 on the year".  Script worthy stuff.  The Riders were a complete no-show but scheduling didn't do them any favors, the Lions crushed the Stamps on Vernon Adams return and the Argos took care of business against the RedBlacks.  Was Chad Kelly betting on the spread in this game?!  I talk about this more later on in the thread.


All picks moneyline:


HAMILTON
This can be a tricky game to handicap.  Hamilton is coming off a bye week and teams are now 9-2 coming off the bye after the Elks blew it last week.  Both teams have gotten new offensive coordinators the last 2 weeks with Milanovich in Hamilton calling his 1st game this week and Jackson calling his 2nd game for the Elks.  The Elks and team president Victor Cui parted ways, he was hired in Jan 2022 and went 4-23.  Tre Ford will be starting for the Elks and Taylor Powell for the TigerCats.  Tre Ford beat the TigerCats in Hamilton last year.  Eugene Lewis will play for the Elks and Purifoy won't which is a huge loss to their secondary.  Tre Ford looked great last week for not playing in awhile and inserted some much needed juice into the Elks offense.  Edmonton came out with purpose playing on another level last week but couldn't maintain that for more than the 1st half. 

Hamilton is coming off the bye and they also have a very suspect defense like the Elks.  Similar to how Edmonton came out and played last week, I believe Hamilton will do the same and play with another level of urgency (but how long they maintain that urgency is the question).  Run Butler against one of the league's worst run defenses and let Powell will manage the game.  Taking Hamilton in a closer game that could go either way but should be a fairly high scoring affair.  I have to believe Edmonton is a little deflated and feels even more hopeless/defeated after blowing a 22 point lead last week to a backup QB, but Tre Ford keeps them in this one.  Two of the leagues overall worst defenses going head to head on Thursday Night Football.
28-24 TigerCats

WINNIPEG
Dru Brown came in after Collaros went down and led his team back from a 22 point deficit.  He threw for 307 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT.  He looked composed, was moving very well in the pocket and always had his eyes down the field looking for an open man.  He also made some amazing throws.  Sure this was all done against the Elks and Dru Brown has an amazing support system around him (great coaching, best WRs and O line in the league and a top RB/defense) I am still very impressed.  He has been with the Bombers his whole career since 2021 and has thrown 10 TDs to 2 INTs.  I'd be 100% confident in Brown and sit Collaros this game even if he is ready.  I don't expect Winnipeg coming out as flat as the prairies here in Saskatchewan like they did to start the game last week.  Kenny Lawler continues to impress.  I don't bet props but betting Lawler and Oliviera over yards is usually a good bet.

Maier needs to step up, he can't push the ball down the field at all.  Another terrible performance last week throwing for a measly 131 yards and no TDs.  BC held both of Calgary's RBs to a combined 78 yards.  Calgary has 1 stud WR and 2 stud RBs but they can't really take advantage of this with Maier's current play.  Their defense also isn't helping them out.  Calgary is in trouble and could potentially be 3-8 after the next 2 weeks, playing the Bombers this week and the Argos next.  Lucky for Calgary they play the Elks back to back after that.
31-20 Bombers

MONTREAL
This is also a tricky game to handicap.  We still are unsure of Fajardo's status as he was limited at Tuesdays practise.  Stanbeck and Sewell will play.  Last week Montreal's offense looked like a juggernaut, but did the Riders make them look that good or are they actually that good?  I'd say the Riders made them look good as they were a complete no show last week.  I don't like making excuses but if anyone missed my post in my thread from last week after the game: "Since July 21, the Riders have travelled to Vancouver to play the Lions, back to Regina for practice, out to Halifax to play the Argos, back home to practice before playing the Redblacks at home, then turning around a few days later to travel to Montreal and play the Alouettes. That’s a lot of miles in less than a month."  That is some nasty scheduling!  Montreal's one weakness was getting pressure on the QB but ever since acquiring Shawn Lemon they've solved that problem.  They're playing amazing pass defense.  All of Montreal's 3 losses have came against the other top 3 teams in the league.  They beat the teams they're supposed to beat but can't beat the upper tier teams. 

I was shocked with how well Ottawa's offense played last week in Toronto.  Crum went 21/26 for 292 yards and 3 TDs.  Crum is now the most sacked QB in the CFL overtaking Fajardo and he's also the RedBlacks leading rusher!  Crum rushed 9 times for 42 yards and their actual RB 10 times for 47 yards.  Now let's talk about Ottawa's defense.  Their pass defense got TORCHED last week, and are in last place in yards allowed and giving up a league-high 24 completions of better then 30 yards.  When watching the OTT TOR game on TV last week, half of Kellys completed passes had no Ottawa defenders anywhere to be seen.  It was really bad.  Ottawa still has a top run defense though.  Can Caleb Evans take advantage of Ottawa's secondary issues if he plays?  I don't think so, I don't have very much faith in Evans and the Riders made him look like Joe Montana last week.  You have to imagine pass defence is the main focus in practise this week.  If Ottawa can shutdown Stanbeck and Evans struggles, Ottawa can win this game or make it very close if Fajardo doesn't play.  Ottawa doesn't have a run game on offense and are sort of one dimensional unless Crum runs with it.  As of now I am assuming Fajardo is playing, but if he doesn't suit up my pick and outcome of this game will likely change to Ottawa.    
24-21 Alouettes

BC
This is an easy one, BC in a route.  The Riders don't have a QB and are now down to their 3rd stringer.  They just traded for Antonio Pipkin from Hamilton whose a very inconsistent QB (more down then up).  He's been in the league for 5 years but hasn't really done anything and if he does dress in this game as Dolegala's backup will only have a handful of plays.  The Riders will be rolling out Dolegala who was awful last week in relief of Fine, going 11/20 for 107 yards and an INT.  So Dolegala and Pipkin will be our QBs this game against the best defense in the league.  Do I even want to watch this game as a Riders fan? :D  The Riders won't be able to throw or establish the run.  And to boot after they get pummeled at home against BC this week they have to play Winnipeg back to back.  The next 3 weeks are going to suck.  Just like Shane O'Macs WWE entrance music goes:  "you've got no chance in helllllllll".

BC looked unstoppable last week.  Vernon Adams played almost a perfect game going 23/32 and throwing for 322 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT against Calgary.  Keon Hatcher had a monster game and caught 9/10 targets for 170 yards and 1 TD.  The last time these two teams played the Lions held the Riders to 9 points.  I can't see the Riders scoring more than that in this game unless they get a lucky defensive TD, special teams TD or BC kicking themselves in the foot. 
27-6 Lions 


Good luck!


TEASER: 3-0 last week, 9-1 overall

TEASER (6.5 pts):
WPG -0.5
BC -2.5


TOP OFFENSIVE GRADE: Toronto Argonauts - Chad Kelly tore apart Ottawa's secondary last week completing 21/28 passes for 417 yards and 4 TDs (3 of those went to DaVaris Daniels). Human wrecking ball A.J. Ouellette added another 90 yards on 14 carries.  The Alouettes, Bombers and Lions came close to taking the top offensive grade but I'm going with Toronto.  The Riders didn't bother to show up last week, the Elks are the Elks and the Stamps are in a freefall.  Toronto's WRs were so wide open most of the night they made it look so easy.

TOP DEFENSIVE GRADE: BC Lions - Their defense is the best in the league in my opinion.  They are a great tacking and swarming team with good coaching.  Calgary's offense looked lost last week.  The Alouettes came close to taking top spot this week with a dominant defensive performance but the Riders didn't even get off the plane and they have no serviceable QBs.

BYE WEEK: Toronto; again, what is up with the scheduling this year?!  This will be Toronto's 3rd and final bye week of the season and we are only in week 11.  No more time off the rest of the way until the start of the playoffs (if Toronto holds onto 1st place).  Shoutout to Javon Leake who came out of nowhere overtaking Mario Alford to league the lead in kick/punt returns with 3.  Is there a bit of cause for concern for the Argos defense? 

Does anyone think Kelly bet on the Argos -10.5 spread, or told his friends/family to bet on it?!  Early in the 3rd after Leake took one to the house putting the Argos up 34-24, Bede missed the extra point.  Chad Kelly was visibly upset at the missed extra point.  Then late in the 3rd after Daniels got another TD putting Toronto up 40-31 Bede missed another extra point and Kelly was losing his shit!  Then after Kelly and Bede had a little chat the next kickoff Bede kicked it through the endzone on the kickoff for a single point making it 41-31 almost like Kelly told him to.  The whole 4th quarter while Toronto was up by 10 Kelly was still playing with a huge sense of urgency and constantly pushing the ball deep down the field.  Then up 10 with under 2 minutes left he drives all the way down the field (again with a sense of urgency) gets the Argos in field goal range then they kick the field goal going up by 13.  I just find that sort of funny and food for thought!  It legit felt like Kelly had a bet in on this game and wanted to cover the -10 or -10.5 spread.


MY POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 10 (number in brackets shows previous weeks ranking): 
1)Toronto (1)
2)Winnipeg (2)
3)BC (3)
4)Montreal (4)
5)Ottawa (7)
6)Calgary (5)
7)Saskatchewan (6)
8)Hamilton (8)
10)Edmonton (9) 

The top 3 spots remain the same although BC is breathing down Winnipeg's neck for 2nd spot.  Montreal has separated themselves from the rest of the pack in tier 2 (teams 4-8) with an easy but impressive win against the Riders.  Ottawa moves up from 7th to 5th with an impressive showing in Toronto, imagine what that game could have been if their secondary knew how to cover WRs once in a while)?  Calgary drops down a spot from 5th to 6th after a blowout loss to BC, and the Riders drop to 7th from 6th after getting smacked around in Montreal.  Hamilton was on the bye week and stayed put at 8th, and Edmonton moves down from 9th to 10 spot.  :D  Once again the biggest movement in my power rankings this week was Ottawa, moving back up 2 spots after dropping 2 spots last week.

@slushie007

 Great write ups again! 

Good luck 

Hamilton will be missing 2 offensive linemen and a 3rd is questionable.  They're also playing with a 3rd string QB.  There is definitely upset potential written all over this one for the Elks to win their 1st game of the year, or at the bare minimum cover the +5.5 spread.

@slushie007

 I'm on the over 44.5

GL

Good stuff.

Pretty windy here in Hamilton tonight so that wind coming from the south mountain may hold up some scoring points in this game for field goals 

Good luck buckeyes54.

I am going to take a shot on Edmonton +5.5.  The Elks have the better and more mobile QB and better WRs.  Both teams have good RBs and bad defenses (Hamilton is last in scoring defense) and the Ti-Cats are missing half their O-line.  Both teams are awful.  Let's take a shot on the Elks.

Amy update on Montreal qb situation? Line moved towards Redblacks 

CFLs site is saying Evans to start for Alouettes and Fajardo is available, and on the Alouettes site Evans is listed as the starter on the depth chart and Fajardo 3rd.

Fajardo was also limited in practise all week.

I think Evans is starting and if he really struggles they may put Fajardo in.

A true coin flip game i think because of the qb uncertainty but Ottawa is due for a win. I like that they are home too.

Thanks Slushie for your intel. Good luck tonight