CFL WEEK 10 (24-11)

The Bombers returned the favor from week 3 and absolutely blasted the Lions into oblivion, the Argos couldn't score after they lost Kelly and looked uninterested, the Alouettes came alive with an 18 point 4th quarter to tame the Ti-Cats, and my green Riders continue their unique winning habit by winning a thriller by 2 points against the RedBlacks.  All 4 of the Riders wins this year have been by 4 points or less.


Week 10 already, time flies.  All picks moneyline:


WINNIPEG
Let's be real here, the Elks are not beating the Bombers.  The Elks are coming off a bye and teams are now 9-1 off the bye week.  The Elks also introduced a new Indigenous logo that looks awesome that they'll debut this week for Indigenous celebration night.  None of that will matter.  Collaros just threw for 369 yards against a top rated Lions defense.  Winnipeg will pound Oliviera this game, Edmonton has a terrible run defense to begin with and Collaros won't have to do much through the air to win this game.  Tre Ford is making his first start in forever for the Elks, that does not bode well against Winnipeg's defense when you got Jefferson, Bighill and Jeffcoat hunting you.  This could potentially be a disaster game for Ford, a good way to take a shot at his confidence.  Bombers win, but they definitely won't have that sense of urgency and going in for the kill like they did last week against BC, but then again the Bombers defense can easily overtake this game and make Collaros/Oliviera's life even easier.
32-13 Bombers

SASKATCHEWAN
This is a very interesting game and a very hard one to predict.  First a bit of background on these two teams...Cody Fajardo and Jason Maas were both on the Riders last year (Fajardo the QB and Maas the offensive coordinator), and both of these guys were blamed for much of the issues in Saskatchewan with the lack of scoring and issues with leadership.  Fajardo even said that he felt the Riders have given up on him.  Fast forward to this year where the Riders dump Maas who then becomes the head coach of Montreal, as well as dump Fajardo who Maas quickly signed.  Then the Riders signed Trevor Harris who left Montreal.  The Riders and Alouettes swapped QBs.  Does Jason Shivers have a better feel for the QB he saw in practise for the last 3 seasons in Saskatchewan or does Jason Maas have a better feel for what Shivers will try to do on defence to attack Fajardo?

Let's talk a bit more about the Riders, they are on a short week and have to travel.  They'll fly to Montreal tomorrow (Thursday) and will only get one practise in (today) before playing on Friday, that's a big disadvantage for them.  The Riders know this is as close to as must win game as it comes for them as their next 3 games are BC and Winnipeg twice and none of those 3 games look promising.  The Riders defense showed up last week in a big way with 6 QB sacks on Crum, along with 4 hits and 7 hurries.  Their defense is for real especially when Lanier is healthy.  Mason Fine also played much better and should continue to improve, but he needs help from the offensive line.  Dickenson continues to make boneheaded decisions, like going for it on 3rd and a long 1 yard on your own 18 yard line, up by 2 points with under 2 minutes remaining in the game.  Of course the Riders never converted on the 3rd and 1, gave the ball to Ottawa and then the RedBlacks made a similar boneheaded decision by going for it on 3rd and 2 when you could have kicked the field goal and took the lead.  They never converted on their gamble either.

Now onto Montreal, Snead and Mack combined for 206 receiving yards last week with 96 of those yards coming after contact.  They've been eating those YAC yards up and are proving to be a great combo for Montreal and Fajardo, and pounding Stanback on the ground always makes things easier too.  They're also playing great defense.  The Alouettes 3 losses this year have came against the top 3 teams (Argos, Bombers and Lions) and they have taken care of the teams they should have beaten so far.  There may be a slight cause for concern this week as far as injuries go...Fajardo didn't practise Tuesday (left shoulder) and Sewell also missed practise (hip).  Stanback was limited.  We will have to see what their status' are for gametime, I am guessing most of those guys play but may not be operating at 100%.

This is a really tough game to predict and could go either way and has some backstory behind it with Fajardo/Maas but I will take my chances with the Riders.  The coaching staff knows Fajardo's tendencies inside and out.  Fajardo gets rattled easily and starts to get happy feet then likes to run backwards when he feels some pressure, and the Riders are great at getting consistent pressure on the QB.  Mario Alford is also playing his former team, he may just take one to the house and be the difference in this game.  Riders in another heart racing nailbiter! 
24-23 Riders

BC
The Lions got trounced last week and humiliated to the extreme.  They wished they could have gone home at half when they were already down by 23 points.  They allowed 4 TDs through the air along with almost 600 yards of offense to Winnipeg.  Both of the Lions losses this year have been blowouts to the other top 2 teams in the league (Argos, Bombers).  The week 18 rubber match between the Lions and Bombers can't come fast enough for BC.  Dane Evans (ribs) didn't practise on Tuesday, and we're still not sure on Vernon Adams status.  BC could potentially roll out their 3rd string QB, but I am 99% certain either Evans or Adams will play.

Calgary on the other hand beat the only undefeated team but that was due to Chad Kelly going down with an ankle injury.  Toronto never scored a single point after Kelly went down, and Calgary's defense is not very good.  When you don't have a QB it's hard to win in this league and that showed for Toronto.  This would of been a completely different game and outcome if Kelly didn't get hurt, so let's not award the Stampeders any trophies just yet.  Ka'Deem Carey was a full participant at practise, and Dedrick Mills rushed 27 times for 137 yards going along with 4 receptions for 18 yards.  Carey is the starter but Mills has been playing great.  Calgary should play both of them!  Calgary plays BC this week and then Winnipeg and Toronto their next two games, they could dig themselves a bigger hole within the next 3 weeks. 

As long as either Evans or Adams plays in this one BC will cruise.  I think folks are overrating the Stampeders a bit after last week but losing Kelly early was huge and Calgary has now beaten Toronto 15 out of the last 16 games they've played.  There is just something about the Stamps that the Argos can't handle!  BCs defense steps up and the offense eats away at the Stamps defense to an easy win with Calgary getting a garbage time TD.
30-17 Lions

TORONTO
The injury to Kelly last week was HUGE for Toronto, and why would Toronto even think of putting him out on the field this week when they have their 3rd and final bye week coming up next week?  After Kelly left the game last week, Cameron Dukes came on in relief and couldn't do anything.  Toronto got shutout the rest of the game.  I also question some of the coaching from last week.  You're finally in field goal position in the 3rd quarter, its 2nd and 2 and you have two bruising RBs.  Toronto instead tried throwing for the 1st down which went for an incompletion.  Then on 3rd and 2 in field goal range they tried throwing the ball again, and this time Dukes got sacked.  What is going on with some of the play calling by these coaches in the league?!  I am staying away from this game unless for some reason Kelly plays.  Dukes was awful last week and Toronto won't be able to move the ball through the air, which is Ottawa's weakness.  What Ottawa is good at is stopping the run and pressuring the QB, and that's exactly what Toronto needs to do is run run and run some more with Harris and Ouellette.  This works into Ottawa's defensive strength and favor.  On the other side of the ball, the Ottawa offense will struggle to get much going against a pissed off Argos defense who in reality held Calgary to 13 points since Toronto gave Calgary a free special teams TD.  Toronto's defense, special teams and run game will need to step up if Kelly isn't playing but they should still have enough to win and not be happy how things turned out last week.  Assuming Kelly isn't playing, my final score will be:
20-13 Argos


Good luck!

TEASER: went 1-1 last week, 6-1 overall

TEASER: (6 pts):
WPG -6.5
BC -0.5


INTERESTING STAT: Shawn Bane Jr, WR of my green Riders is the league leader in receiving yards with 615!  Who would've thought the offensively challenged Riders have the league leading WR yardage wise.


I am going to start giving out my top offensive and defensive grades, basically which team who I think had the best overall offense and defence of the previous week.

TOP OFFENSIVE GRADE: Winnipeg Blue Bombers - complete clinical offensive showing last week against one of the best defenses in the league

TOP DEFENSIVE GRADE: Saskatchewan Roughriders - Crum crumbled, took 6 sacks, was under constant pressure and had no one to throw to


BYE WEEK: Hamilton; last week Taylor Powell was a couple of dropped would be TD catches away from his team having a shot at beating the Alouettes.  Hamilton played very well last week...just for the 1st half!  Only a field goal to show for in the 2nd half, while allowing 24 points to Montreal.  Hamilton has a lot of issues, Steinauer is slowly losing the locker room and it doesn't help they can't keep any QBs healthy.  Their defense used to be so good and now they're worse then the Elks.  Hamilton has allowed a league high 224 points against in 8 games this year.  Hamilton and assistant head coach/offensive coordinator Tommy Condell agreed to mutually part ways and Scott Milanovich will take over play calling duties.  Condell is a great offensive coordinator, there must of been something not sitting right with him and the team for him to leave.  Not a good look/sign in my opinion.  Milanovich had a few stints in the CFL as a QB coach before becoming head coach of the Argos in 2011 and he actually won the Grey Cup that year with a 9-9 team and won coach of the year.  He coached 1 more year in Toronto leading them to an 11-7 record and a loss to Hamilton the Eastern Finals. 


MY POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 9 (number in brackets shows previous weeks ranking):
1)Toronto (1)
2)Winnipeg (3)
3)BC (2)
4)Montreal (4)
5)Calgary (6)
6)Saskatchewan (7)
7)Ottawa (5)
8)Hamilton (8)
9)Edmonton (9)

Although Toronto had their 1st blemish of the season and lost last week, they also lost their QB early so let's give them the benefit of the doubt, and Winnipeg and BC both gave each other beatdowns already this year and Toronto beatdown BC so Toronto stays at 1 for now.  BC and Winnipeg trade places after the Bombers annihilated the Lions, Montreal stays put at 4 with a solid win in Hamilton, and the Stamps move up one spot to 5 with a big and much needed win against the Argos.  The Riders move up one spot with a huge win against Ottawa, and Ottawa slides down the power rankings from 5 to 7 after losing to the Riders.  Hamilton stays put at 8 and Edmonton will remain in 9 until the end of time (or they change their name back to the Eskimos, or fire Chris Jones and all his minions, or completely clean house and fire everyone from top to bottom).  The biggest movement in my power rankings this week was Ottawa dropping down 2 spots, they've now dropped down 3 spots overall in the past 2 weeks.

Good stuff.

Thanks guys.  

The final injury reports have been posted for the Riders/Alouettes and Fajardo will be available.  He was limited in Wednesdays practice.  The Riders will be coming after him if he plays.  Sewell and Stanback also questionable.  

As for Vernon Adams, he was "available" last week but they chose to rest him another week.  He is now taking 1st team reps in practice.  Dane Evans did not practice again today, there is a good chance he sits and heals up his ribs.  Hopefully Vernon Adams is 100% healthy.

Good luck!

Very incisive, nothing to disagree with here.

Chad Kelly was a full participant in Wednesdays practise, interesting.

@slushie007

 Good luck this week and thanks for your write ups! Very informative 

Edmonton at this point should be ashamed....up 22 points and still lose to lose their 22nd home game in a row!

Speaking about an embarrassment: my Riders, I completely read that game wrong.  I did find this in an article after the game which I find shocking:

"Since July 21, the Riders have travelled to Vancouver to play the Lions, back to Regina for practice, out to Halifax to play the Argos, back home to practice before playing the Redblacks at home, then turning around a few days later to travel to Montreal and play the Alouettes. That’s a lot of miles in less than a month."

The schedulers didn't do the Riders any favors here.

Looks like the Dickenson brothers are going to duke it out for 3rd in the west.

Now that we know Chad Kelly is a full go, I am going to make my final score 33-13 Argos.  Similar to BC tonight, Toronto is going to be and play p!ssed off that they got whooped by Calgary last week, who got whooped BC this week.  And why not rest Kelly before the bye week to be safe because it seems like QBs have been going down like flies this year, so it that makes me think Toronto wants to come out and make a statement before the bye just like Winnipeg did last week against BC and BC did this week against Calgary.

I am adding the Argos to a teaser, now I know that Kelly is playing and the Argos intentions.  So far 2-0 this week and 8-1 overall.  I love teasers for CFL/NFL.

TEASER (7 point):
TOR -3

I am teasing this with 2 NFL games from week 1 of the regular season since I'm a football degen and want to tease the Argos:
DET @ KC +0.5
HOU @ BAL -2.5

"Edmonton at this point should be ashamed....up 22 points and still lose to lose their 22nd home game in a row!'"

_________________________________

Wow....that ......is something.

Great write ups....!

And BOL this week.