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Everyone knows that the Falcons are the biggest home underdog in Conference Championship history because of how great the Niners looked last week & the fact that Falcons nearly choked away the game after leading by 20 points to start the 4th quarter but how about this trend.... Teams that score over 40 points in a playoff game are 1-9 the following week ATS & 3-26 in the last 29 games overall. It's easy to jump on board with the Niners considering how good they looked at home last week but I took the dirty birds in the Georgia Dome +4 & the over 48
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Quote Originally Posted by MrVitalvicious:
Yes Ravens did barely beat the Chiefs & Chargers on the road but you're forgetting that the Broncos beat down the entire AFC North with only the Bengals coming within double digits. 11 straight wins with none of them being closer than a touchdown. |
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Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:
Denver has yet to play in 20 degree weather and it's 10 degrees lower on the field. There will be a lot of dropped passes and Manning has been known to have problems throwing in the cold freezing temps.Ask the Patriots about Manning. Yeah Peyton struggled early in his career on the road. Everyone likes to refer that he's lost cold games in New England but that was a long time ago. All 3 of Peyton's losses in playoff games below 30 degrees were on the road & the last one came in 2004. Don't forget the Peyton has beaten the Ravens 9 straight times! |
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Quote Originally Posted by Whalewatcher: Usually hurts a team??? Over the past 15 years yes there's been some wild card teams that have won the Super Bowl but statistically teams off a bye win a lot more than teams that play in the wild card round!! Don't forget that the Falcons do have the best record in the NFC for a reason! Seattle is a long ways from Atlanta & unlike last week I doubt Matt Ryan will get hurt. Falcons will finally get over the hump & send the Seahawks home for the winter
Best record in the NFL 1 week bye.............usually hrurts a team homefield ad' and currently only giving a point? There's a reason Dirty Birds are not favored by more........... they aint the favorites Dont overthink it..............Coach Carroll has strategically put together a brutally tough, hard hitting defense injuring Garcon, RGIII and skins #1 offensive lineman........The beating continues.......Atl has lost all mometum while Seattle has all the momentum......Falcon's season ends Sunday. SEAHAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!! .......... all day er day! |
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Quote Originally Posted by MrVitalvicious:
Chargers went up 20 or 21 points against these guys, and they don't have nearly as many weapons as the Ravens do. This game will be decided by less than a fg...Once Pollard, or Reed lays one of those receivers out, they'll stop running their routes so sharp, all the while frustrating Manning. They have no run game to lean on and, the Ravens know that. Baltimore is hungry, agressive, and good enough to win this game. Broncos better not come into this one thinking they've already won, they will surely get their lunch brought to them. Experience wins this one. Baltimore 24 Broncos 23 That was a divisional opponent & teams in the division always play each other tougher.That would be like me saying even Charlie Batch beat Baltimore. Ravens do have a good offense at home but it doesn't travel well. The Ravens average 32 points @ home but only 18 on the road. Denver averages 32.5 @ home & only once this year have they scored less than 30 in the Mile High City. |
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So for the people that say the Ravens defense looked great last week I will say yes the score was kept low but that was because of a lot of mistakes by the Colts. Far too many drop balls & mistakes in key parts of the game. Other than that the Colts put up 419 yards & controlled the ball for over 37 minutes. Peyton Manning & the Broncos are much more efficient in the red zone & tend to put up a lot of points. Yes Ravens defense is back but they're not 100% & many still playing hurt. Broncos are for the most part very healthy & rested plus they have more momentum than any other team. |
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Hmmm Patriots coming off a by facing a team that they just put up over 40 points on & destroyed about a month ago on Monday Night Football... Sounds familiar!!! Last week the Texans offense didn't look great but they put up enough to win the game because of great play by their defense & I look for the Texans defense to show up big this week. Taking Texans +9.5 & under but also sprinkling a lil on the moneyline. Patriots have a habbit of being over confident & get out worked some home playoff games against inferior opponents (I.E. Jets 2010 playoffs & Ravens 2009 playoffs)
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The Ravens aren't as good on the road. Their average yard per play at home is 2nd in the NFL but they have the 3rd worst yards per play average on the road. Broncos are ranked #2 in average yard per play over all. Broncos are just a much better team! They are #4 in offense & #2 in defense while the Ravens have the #16 offense & #17 defense. Manning has absolutely dominated the Ravens defense for over a decade now & have beaten them 9 straight times including twice in the post season when the Ravens had a top tier defense. Flacco just isn't the same QB on the road throwing only 7 TDS, 5 Interceptions & only completing 56.9% of his passes. I see this game being lower scoring than last time but the same outcome. Broncos were up 31-3 before letting their foot off the gas in Baltimore but I'm thinking this game will be 30-10 Broncos. |
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Luck has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns on the road. Plus the Colts are the only team in NFL history to go 11-5 & be out scored on the season. Colts are a much better home team. Ravens -7 & the over |
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Quote Originally Posted by easypics:
LoL... OK, Last 7 or not , last 17 ,only playoff caliber team Skins have beaten are Ravens and Vikes .
In any case, it's not a heavy $$$$ angle .
There are exceptions to the rule but in general , Defense wins these type of games.
Seattle happens to have THE better defense and offense.
Considering Sacco's and Romo's numbers vs Skins secondary, you got to love Wilson's recent rising QB stock rating @ home or on the road.
Skins secondary are in for a tough one.
GL
Seahawk$ will cover.
Well good luck to you. I think you are underestimating the Redskins offense which has the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Shanahan is very good in slowing down the game by controlling time of possession. Especially with 2 rookie QB's in this game it'll come down to turnovers & T.O.P. I luv the Seahawks defense but if they have one weakness it is against the run & Alfred Morris is no joke. I see this being a field goal game either way & I will take the home dog everytime. If Seahawks were at home then I would give the edge to them |
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Quote Originally Posted by easypics:
Cheers Hellahigh.
Very true , however in relation to my post ,dig a little deeper weighing this game out. Out of last 7 Skin wins ,only one was vs a Playoff team. Other 2 playoff teams Skins faced was Cincy @ home + Falcs on road ( both losing causes) .
Skins barely beat Ravens in OT @ home led by Sacco's 3 TD's . Sacco , we all know has a substantial lower QB rating on road than home. Impressive ?
Regardless of travel wear coming off a non divisional game vs Pats, Frisco were at the time listed as Super Bowl favorites .Seattle's dominate divisional win over Frisco ,regardless of circumstances,shows team capability of beating the best and any other team under adverse conditions such as beating Bears on the road in recent weeks. Same can't be said for Skins who have not really beaten a quality team this year. IMO last week's unimpressive win , do or die scenario vs hated and inconsistent Cowboys highlights fact that Skins have little to none time to adjust to Seahawks who have a far better defense ,QB and Running game than Cowboys. Face it,Skins have not faced a Russel Wilson type led attack while Seahawks have recently gotten a good taste of a running Kapernick RG3 type.
Last but not least,highlighting fact that Skins have a considerably weaker defense than Seahawks, can you see Skins scoring more than 20 pts vs Seattle D that has allowed 24 + points only once all year ? Bet on it : Seahawks will score 27 + points. Not so certain with Skins.
Weather permitting.
GL
The one thing you're not accounting for is that the Seahawks have also only played 1 playoff team in the last 7 game & are 3-5 on the road this year with one of those road wins was in Toronto. Seahawks have only played 1 playoff team on the road & that was a loss in Frisco. Seattle is a great home team but very beatable on the road. I'll take the home underdog. I'm thinking this year's wild card round will probably be just last last years with all 4 home teams winning. With a few exceptions the first round the past few years usually goes to the home team with most of the games not being all that close |
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Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:
easily? they had to win last week, now playing a road game in indy, nothing will be easy for houston. Last week doesn't mean they will come up flat this week. Luck turns the ball over far too much & that ground game of Houston will pound the 30th ranked rush defense of the Colts just like last 2 weeks ago. I see this as another double cover for the Texans. Also remember all it takes is 1 injury to a key player for the Colts & they will start pulling their players. Houston needs this game while Indy gains nothing win or lose |
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Since 1990 1st year head coaches are 39-67 in Bowl Games. So far this year they're 0-4. I'll take VT -2.5
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Indy has NOTHING to gain here. No matter what they will be the 5th seed & will more than likely sit any players that are banged up. Houston needs this win to lock up Homefield advantage, otherwise they will be playing the 1st round because there's no way Denver or New England will lose at home this weekend. Houston is just the better team & should roll quite easily. Houston -6.5
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Quote Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah:
Is this a repeat of last week? Bears have pretty much the same offense as the Lions - one really good WR, sketchy "gunslinger" QB, sub-par running game, and a suspect O-Line. Throw in the "Paper Tiger" defenses both teams have, and on paper they're almost identical. Cards were a 5.5 home underdog last week too - hmmmm, now I forget, how'd that game end up? Cards +5.5 - - again Except the Bears have a better defense that can force turnovers & their 8-6 while the Lions are 4-10. Lions offense is MUCH better than the Bears!! Lions have the #2 offense & the Bears are 29th. The problem with the Lions is although they move the ball they can't score as they should because of turnovers & redzone offense. The Cards have the worst offense in the NFL & commit quite a few turnovers. I expect the Bears D to force tons of turnovers & put their offense in good field position all game long. Bears -5.5 with an easy cover! |
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Quote Originally Posted by now_then:
Tough call this week. Both team need to win this game. I like Under 100% I completely agree!! Seattle may have put up 58 on the Cards but that's because they forced 8 turnovers & the Bills have a terrible defense. While the Niners put 41 on a bad Patriots defense. It's #2 vs #3 defenses. This total is just begging for you to fall for the over. Should be close & low scoring just like last game. |
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This is a 1st half tease for the Browns because Broncos have allowed most of their opponents to keep it close & then exploded in the 3rd or 4th quarter. Broncos -13.5 for the game
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In the last 5 years home dogs of 10.5 or more are 25-13. That's over 60%!! I'll take it 14.5
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Steelers & Big Ben get it together this week to continue their dominance over the Bungals. Pitt -4.5 & the under |
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Bills +4.5 small & the under big
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