Devin Haney will defend his WBC junior welterweight title against Ryan Garcia in a marquee bout at the Barclays Center tonight.
A rivalry born from their amateur days, Haney will need to rely on his fundamental brilliance to disarm the unpredictable Garcia.
Boxing odds have Haney as a -800 favorite, with Garcia listed as a +500 underdog. Here are my free picks for Haney vs. Garcia from Brooklyn on April 20.
Devin Haney vs Ryan Garcia odds
| Method of victory | Devin Haney | Ryan Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -800 | +500 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +100 | +730 |
| Win by points or decision | +115 | +2,250 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of Bet99 as of April 20, 2024.
Devin Haney vs Ryan Garcia betting predictions
Picks made on April 18. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Devin Haney vs Ryan Garcia boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Haney ML
While Ryan Garcia has shouted nonsense to anyone who could listen, Devin Haney has been quietly training in the background, unfazed by the public proceedings going into the first defense of his junior welterweight title. The disciplined Haney is a sound, tactical boxer who already looks like he won’t be long for junior welterweight, but he is by no means a lock, despite what the odds are indicating.
Garcia remains the puncher here, and he won’t be as flat-footed as Regis Prograis was or as fundamentally flawed as George Kambosos Jr. Haney fights at a measured pace for the entire fight, seldom taking chances and not possessing the kind of punching power that could bail him out of bad situations. How Haney wins is with fleeting footwork, a rapier jab, and bodywork before resetting his position and starting over.
Though Garcia has everything he needs to pull this off, including familiarity with Haney’s style that remains mostly unchanged since their amateur days, his overreliance on his left hook and tendency to deviate from the game plan will be his undoing. If Garcia gets impatient as we saw against Gervonta Davis, he reverts to full-on headhunting and limits his offense. That’ll give Haney all the reason to sit back and potshot his way to a decision.
Because Haney’s punching power is not likely to stop Garcia from pressuring him, there’s a risk that Garcia can land one of those whiplash left hooks even late in the fight. That risk isn’t enough to justify an upset, and I’m picking the fighter more likely to stay cool under fire to win this one.
Prediction: Haney moneyline (-750 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Over 10.5 rounds (-290)
Haney winning by decision is the expected outcome for those inclined to pick a prop with the champion, but there are several factors to consider. Haney is a points fighter, meaning that his entire style is built on going the distance and avoiding any defensive lapses that could put him in a position where he has to uncharacteristically engage.
He chooses to remain on the outside, only briefly entering close quarters before retreating. While Haney could have potentially stopped a significantly overmatched Prograis after dropping him twice in their fight, his lack of offensive initiative speaks volumes about his approach to bouts. Despite his physical stature, Haney is a pure boxer and prefers to safely outbox opponents rather than take risks to knock them out.
Any dramatic moments in the fight are likely to occur relatively late, with Garcia likely initiating them. At lightweight, Haney showed signs of struggle in the closing rounds against Jorge Linares and Vasiliy Lomachenko after a strong early start.
Considering this, the best bet for this fight is that it extends beyond 10.5 rounds.
Prediction: Pick (-290 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Devin Haney vs Ryan Garcia betting preview
After becoming the undisputed lightweight champion, Haney moved up to junior welterweight to win a title in a second weight class and now hopes for a boost in marketability from facing the popular Garcia. The technically sublime Haney boasts wins over Prograis, Lomachenko, Kambosos Jr., and Joseph Diaz. He is also deceptively big, having rehydrated nearly 20 pounds after weighing in for the Prograis fight.
Garcia is also at a critical juncture in his young career, and there are doubts about whether he is mentally stable for the challenge ahead. The Victorville native is in his first fight for a recognized world title and is two fights removed from his knockout loss to Davis. Garcia has notable wins over Oscar Duarte and Luke Campbell and possesses one of the best punches in boxing: his left hook.
Haney and Garcia fought six times in the amateur ranks, each winning three fights. This will be Garcia’s second fight with trainer Derrick James, who likely has had his hands full preparing Garcia for the fight amidst his charges’ controversial social media postings. Both fighters are in the thick of their primes, and this fight should play out with Haney trying to keep Garcia at bay with his jab while avoiding his left hook, and Garcia stalking Haney to try and goad him into exchanging punches.
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