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this is what sportsinsights is based on RLM but thanks for sharing the other advice. i hit 56-59% of cbb total you can check me on contest 8th place last year the other thing i would do is calculate your own total and line and see if it is off from posted total and defense?offense so a total of 140 has 2 teams avg 150 on offense but 130 on defense is an under play all the way i would estimate 5 points difference or more definitely 10 pts is profitable over juice...last 5 games most important and conference which you can click on covers matchup to get the #s |
redtear2989 | 480 |
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under
meetings under yes but SI has the total at 60.0 and its 70 avg last HA and HA and you have 60-65 pts
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Covers | 51 |
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Smart money on over and avgs support 46 maybe 47. When two teams go under the previous game the over hits 60% Cincy ml profitable. Pitt probably lead at the half...wait untill halftime and then takes Cincy |
Covers | 46 |
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i have a simple system look at my CBB totals record 59% over 400 + games...add the last 5 for and against and bet under when the number is 5 or more too high....if its 10 or more too high you can go to maybe 1.5 units....im up 50+ units in CBB totals and the only time ive won money gambling as im more or less doing same picks with real money....good luck i see people spending a lot of time figuring out these plays...take 20 seconds to do my work for each game then i select the ones where the difference is 5 or more and bet those....other ones i leave alone....sometimes it almost a lock like 70% is going to work...national TV game they often make it 5-10 pts too high bc they know joe shmoe is going to bet the over no matter what |
Bandit7 | 303 |
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theyre playing for 100k its going under giannas got rooks who will play hard and Lebron wants it not to be a joke hence last years result...same this year
100k over a season is 8 million an nba salary
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RLeith35 | 3 |
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my nba sides check out 62%, the total shoulf be about 229, take the under 235 and sac kings 16-5 on 3 days rest although sac +3 or 2 is the right number but with extra rest on national tv take kings for small amount 1 unit and under for 2 units |
Covers | 2 |
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likely under espn national tv game 66% public hitting over and for somereason against liriano who is 9-1 last10 start so dont bet against him
pirates 4-0
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Logan22 | 6 |
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IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THEY BOTH LOSE THE GAME?
take the under but there are much better bets out there...take every dog in CFB for 100$ and ukk be up 2 units by end of day
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Covers | 13 |
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TEAMS THAT LOSE BY >20 PTS PRIOR WEEK ARE 55% ATS NEXT WEEK THATS WHY THE GIANTS WILL COVER AND THEY PLAY DALAS CLOSE LOOK AT MEETINGS
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Covers | 29 |
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WHEN THE OU IS AT 48 IN TH ENFL
THE UNDER HITS 57% OF THE TIME....MORONS... BET THE OVER LIKE EVERYOONE ELSE
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phat03 | 57 |
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dude
public hitting SF so that means if u were to ever bet this game it wouldnt be for SF, going against public will get you about 50-51% ATS theyre hitting it at 60-70%, once it hits 70% generally the dog will hit 55% ATS meaning youll make $$ seatlle has been a covering machine with wilson under and seattle would be my guess with seattle getting 8 the better bet
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Covers | 151 |
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21. Spring training HT<50% = 21u/yr 55% win rate, <25% = 24 u/yr and 58% win rate 22. Pinnacle is used to detect change in line or indicate smart money (see sport insight website below for that info 23. Any team <40%= only a 0.3% ROI and 5 u/yr 24. Any team <20%= 20u/yr and a whopping 4% ROI!! (so be selective if limited bankroll and onlydo 2-4 % of your bank roll, don’t increase or decrease your bets 25. Any team between 20-40% = 1% ROI 26. Most units per game gained are at 70% bet against level and 25 u/yr averageing +149 ML odds, 0.04u/gae, so you are looking in the 25-30% level 27. Smart money >10 ML move in opposite direction of public betting makes about 48 u/yr, more units/game at <20% level but most overall units at <50% because there are more games https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspxhttps://www.fantasybetszone.com/public_trends.php |
PCBWiseguy | 550 |
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MLB 1. Betting agaist the public for any team in the MLB = ~70 to 100 units per year, so set up a monkey to do this for you and you will likely make money though no one knows if the future wil mirror the past 2. All HT (home teams) <50% public bet = 20-70 units/season 3. And HD<25% of public bet %= +10 units per year (equals a 60% ATS Win rate- which is hard to achieve in any sport) 4. <30-35% cutoff (which seems to be the cutoff for most sports)= 24 units in 2011 half way through 5. At <40% of public bets= 35 units per year of ~54.5% ATS equivalent and about 0.03 units/game 6. Fading the public at the 30% level gives 25units per year and most of those units come in june and july, visiting teams did better at the end of the season 7. THE BEST ROI (return on investment)- going against the public with a 10 moneyline move in the opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS return, indicates sharp or smart money, you don’t need to know anything about the teams just follow smart money, this will result in fewer games, but don’t worry you’ll actually make money gambling per historic trends. Any team <50% with 10 moneyline move in opposite direction- about 55-60% ATS and 0.1 units gained per game 8. MLB visitor <30% makes money too 9. HD <35%=55%ATS 10. HD<30%= 59% ATS |
PCBWiseguy | 550 |
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how about this, all from free articles from sportsinsights.com:
11. HD<25% ATS= 55%ATS HS<20% = 75% ATS though this is based on not a large number of games 12. Any team home or away <23% = 54% ATS in MLB and NBA (think against the Yankees) 13. <30%= 26 units per season, especially the home team at beginning of season and visiting team at end of season 14. Fade all HT that are getting <50% of public bets will win too (about 60% of home teams win in MLB so this makes sense- its hard to win on the road no matter who you are 15. Fade anyone <20% between -200 and +200 ML- 56% win rate and 14 units per year or more 16. Any home dog = 56 % win rate, 21 units gained but this is over many years, so the ROI is lower on these bets 17. HT <20% bets= 58% win rate and 24 units over many years 18. HD <20% -52.6% ATS 19. Home Teams getting less than 50%= 12-20 units per year, less than 40%= 14 units per year, <30%= 12 units per year (this could be the ‘sweet spot’), <20%=6 U /yr, <10%=6 U/yr 20. Smart money = about 55% ats and 12+ units per year |
PCBWiseguy | 550 |
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public is 70-30 over and th eline moved under meaning sharps ar eon the under they will slow it down knowing this is for everything under all the way its also nationall televised and they linesmakers know this and set the line high bc they know the moron public will bet the over and the fav |
MarkDogg | 43 |
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only problem is 69% of money is on celts that is historically a 45% ats trend im taking 5.5 |
MarkDogg | 43 |
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Quote Originally Posted by nba_capper:
I like the girl in your avatar. thats cause you have ASian fever like 90% of the guys on this forum, have you seen the ads for filipino cupid and all that |
nba_capper | 32 |
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overin san ant is where the smart money indicator is though I hate overs in public games
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Thagrant1 | 12 |
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line moves in opposite direction of public bets ( and we all knwo the public are morons)- show the over in MIA game and the under in the spurs game. Since the unde ris liie 15-5 ATS so far in this year playoffs (tighter Defense, nationally televised games and more casual bettors betting favs and the over, I might stay away from an over game, but if any game will go over , it might be MIA- keep in mind this is historically a 55-60% ats move to follwo smart money so Im thinking both or at least one might hit but theres very little change (in fact anout 1/5 chance that both will lose) However, I think spurs will cover and kill at home, which makes the over and the spurs go together, so Im confused, basically, when your confused I go with the smart money and willl be riding MIA over and SAN ANTONION under and no spread picks since there is no smart moeny indicator |
spilmaz88 | 1 |
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https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb-betting-trends.aspx https://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html NBA - this is a summary of all online sports nsight articles: Playoffs HT<40% public bet= 60% ATS for last 3 yrs bc HT playoff game atmosphere is great? NBA visitor <30% public bet= 54-55% ATS from 2003-2011 <40% of bets only is 51% ATS, not anough to make $$ NBA visitor <30%=54% ATS, enough to build a bankroll NBA visitr <25%= 55% ATS Any team home or visitior <20%=54.4% ATS So HOME Dogs <20% you can bet blindly and visitors <30%, that is the way to make money in the NBA historically!! |
UPNTHAPORT | 77 |
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