Follow Public Or Fade???

Good Day To All...

I wanted to get opinions on the 2 games tonight that have me a bit confused on which way to go, I know there are some very insightful minds in this Forum and Feedback is always appreciated...

My initial reaction is to take Miami & Dallas with no questions asked, but with the Public pounding both Teams I am hesitant to pull the trigger...

Tuesday we had all Dogs Cover..

Wednesday we had all Favorites Cover..

So does that mean it is time for Dogs again tonight?

Or do we see a split???

I know the NBA loves having the Knicks in the Playoffs, and the longer they can hang around the better..

And their is always intrigue with a Defending Champ attempting to Repeat..

Heat/Knicks Game:

I think the Bosh issue could be interesting to watch, I know people think the Heat will be Ok and still able to win without him which I agree, but Covering could be an issue especially if Melo Goes off and gets the Garden behind him with their more agressive style of Ball with A'mare out of the Line up I could see this one being closer than some might think...

Okc/Dallas Game:

In the Dallas Game I truly do think the Mavs will win, but to Cover with the way the series has played out I am having a hard time making that play.

The Dog has been the play in this series and I haved cashed both times on Dallas, but I liked them alot better getting Points than having to cover a Spead like -3.5 against a Thunder team that doesn't go away... 

I am wondering if that trend continues tonight and the Smart bet would be to take the Thunder with the Points, and Play the Mavs ML on the side...

BOL on everyone's play...

Here are the Public percentages currently...

I am Also waiting on Prop Plays to be released..

The more I think about it, I think there might be more Value in those tonight..

 I took the Over 23 Points for D-Wade last game after Schumpert went out you knew this was going to Free up Wade more and he would be able to score more than he had been and he hit 25..

And then Tuesday I hit it Big with the no Brainer play of the Playoffs with the Paul Pierce Over 20.5 knowing he was going to have the Ball most of the night with the offense being run through him..

I think any Melo Prop that comes out I will be all Over it because he will be on a Mission tonight, and with A'mare out the whole Offense will run through him..

Also a Durant & Dirk Prop will be worth consideration too..

 I see Durant having a Big game after 2 less than stellar Performances..

  And Dirk having to carry the Mavs should get his easily...

Yeah I think the same thing, Dallas wins but doesn't cover..

And it has been confirmed Bosh will play, so I feel better about the Heat as Favs on the Road...

Thanks for your Input...

Quote Originally Posted by greengrocer:

leanig knicks,mavs,good luck with your plays

Thank you sir..

BOL as well...

Your right going from -2  to -3.5 definately is an eye opener...

The Heat line finally moved to -5.5...

I will have to check that out..

I just pulled those percentages from Scores&Odds no longer than  5 minutes ago...

Yeah I see it now...

I wonder why the difference?

Both sights use the same data as far as stats & injury reports..

Dallas

Thanks...

Speaking of the public, they are 7-9-1 ATS and coming in on a 1-4-1 ATS run.

The line movements are 5-8 ATS and coming in on a 1-4 run.

I would look for this to reverse itself tonight with the public and the line movements to get at least 1 game, maybe both.

Thank me later...........................................................

Prop Bets released on my Books and they are not giving any Option for Melo scoring Over a specific number, I guess they learned after the Paul Pierce prop the other night..

The one I see worth value in the 1st Game is if Melo goes to the Charity Stripe and makes more than 6.5 Free Throws, which I think he will as many times as he lowers his head and drives to the Hole and draws contact...

No Over on Points for Durant Either, Just Dirk at 26.5 which I think is right on what he will score so I might take a stab at that...

I like the Under 26 Points for Westbrook too, I think Durant has the Big game tonight he also has a over 7.5 Free throws made which is worth a look...

Great Information to know...

Thank you...

Quote Originally Posted by KTown:

Agree think the Miami games goes under 185.5 and like Dallas over 194 GL

 Mavs & Thunder seem to be the Logical pick to go Over...

OKC UNDER.

I think the over/under is a bit inflated. Check out the last two games in Dallas. It went no where near this total.