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Thread Author RxMang17 Post Entries
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It looks like it's been raining in NJ today. 

Can anyone comment on how teams tend to play in the wet and cold at MetLife on the grass? Any predictions on over/under based on a potentially sloppy field?
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Why is anyone betting on the Lakers? 

1) No Gasol

2) Irving's return at home on a 9 game losing streak? This setup screams for upset imo.

Cavs ML 
Cavs +6.5
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Firstly, AFN, I have been very impressed with this system!

However, did last night's game expose a flaw? Specifically, my question is: how exactly does the system quantify recent play vs play over the whole season? I know you've mentioned that it weights recent play heavier than historical play, but what defines "recent?" I have noticed (more from a fantasy football perspective) that HOU D/ST has been bad since Week 11, whereas NE D/ST has been looking pretty good since Week 11. Essentially, I was surprised by the defensive differential (i.e., -18% vs average) the system computed. 

Also, does it take into account when players (especially those who are directly involved in many play outcomes) are out for the game? I know your program records every play, but does it record the players involved affecting the outcomes? Quantifying injury-induced effects on expected performance would be BAWSE!

Thanks again for your work! Have a good one. 
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UberDog - well stated.

I really don't understand these individuals' motivations for such emphatic and arrogant endorsements of bets. What is to gain besides leading others astray when you're INEVITABLY going to eventually be wrong?

Sammy_Ace is about the only person I've seen on these boards who posts relevant and useful picks with sound, well-researched reasoning. 

(I won my teaser NE +1/O44 before anyone accuses me of making these statements just because I lost tonight)
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I suppose it's not a trend yet since our sample size is 1. 
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I was really confident in CAR after the shooting as well.

Lesson learned - making hundreds of thousands of dollars per game is motivation enough to focus for 4 quarters regardless of what's going on! Or maybe they were actually motivated. 

Regardless, this trend has been noted for future tragedies!
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Carolina -3. 

KC isn't concerned about football right now. 
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I really feel like apparent differential motivation is not a good reason to bet against good teams trying to prove something and get #1 seed (e.g., Falcons and Denver). 


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You gotta be ballsy to bet on Matt Ryan's fifth ever loss at the Georgia Dome (in the regular season)! The Falcon's past two losses to the Saints have been due to Turner's inability to convert 1 yard (i.e., this season to score and last season to convert on 4th deep in our own territory at the end of the game). 

ATL wins here, but I'm also waiting for the -3 line as Atlanta does play teams close. They're very good at burning clock. 

Although I'm not basing my decision on this, you have to know what Vegas is thinking when 60+% consensus is betting on the +3.5 and they haven't dropped it to +3. My book has -3 at -135 right now! I really hope I don't have to buy that. 

ATL -3
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After the two tough games against LSU and Texas A&M, Bama came out and put up 42 points in the first half versus W. Carolina before winning the second half 7-0.

I think a similar trend will happen today. Forget the Iron rivalry - the differential abilities of these two teams this year nullifies the rivalry's effect.

ALA -20.5 1H
(2 units)

ROLL DAM|\| TIDE!!
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Need Arizona to hit +8 to win teaser...

but put another unit on 'em after reading that their RB is trying to set school rushing record. 

ARIZONA -2 for 7-0 today! GL all 
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What am I most thankful for this season?

THE GREAT IOWAN WINDS! 

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Hoping for a similar pace in the Iowa State game!
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1H U34.5 - medium

Wind doesn't appear to be dissipating today! 
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My two picks today:

1) SU - Nebraska @ Iowa U49.5

2) 3 team teaser (Neb@Iowa U58.5, WV +7.5, ARI +8)

...which happens to put me on the...

W8 trainnnnnn
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As per weather.com:

Iowa City, Iowa  Weather at 12 pm EST:

29 degrees (feels like 14) 

Wind going NW at 26 MPH. Forecast of wind over 20 mph throughout game. 
JTmonayyy
JTmonayyy
Nice call on MIN! Bet you didn't expect to win that one 1-0. haha
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