2017 PREAKNESS
POST TIME: 6:48 EST
For those of you who are new to my threads, when it comes to horse racing and handicapping, you have to have the right mindset. The number one pitfall in handicapping horse racing is that you are not looking for the horse that is necessarily the most likely to win. Rather, you are looking for the horse that offers the best value. It sounds simple but it isn’t. Even for me, sometimes it’s like me putting a bowl of food in front of my dog and telling him not to eat it.
Since I am fairly well known as a recreational baseball handicapper, let me break it down this way. If the best pitcher in baseball, let’s use Clayton Kershaw, and the Dodgers were at home facing the worst team in the majors, let’s go with San Diego, using their worst pitcher, let’s go with the human piñata, Jered Weaver, you wouldn’t need to know much about baseball to determine the Dodgers are likely to win.
Now if I told you the Dodgers were EVEN money in that matchup, you might run to the bank, take cash advances on your credit cards and run to bet the Dodgers. Now, lets be crazy. Let say the Dodgers were -700 and SD was +650. Now SD is looking a bit more attractive. There is some point in the line where the Dodgers don’t make sense anymore and SD does and it’s probably a lot less than my fictitious -700/+650.
So now to the Preakness. ALWAYS DREAMING might not be Kershaw but he is the most likely winner and will be the heavy favorite. However, the value in the race lies in several other solid contenders offering tasty odds.
Throw in that ALWAYS DREAMING, while impressive in the Derby, avoided all trouble and had an easy trip while others didn’t. Also throw in that these horses are young three year olds and coming back off a two week rest is quite demanding and several horses in here are fresher and weren’t in the Derby. So already, you can see that ALWAYS DREAMING is no lock.
I'm not saying take my word as final word. There are several different scenarios that could unfold and below is a detailed analysis with some video clips.
Let’s look at the field:
#1 MULTIPLIER - Took three races to get his first win and didn’t look that spectacular and then exploded in last winning the Illinois Derby with an outstanding trip. The Illinois Derby hasn’t proven to be an excellent prep for the Triple Crown races and while his win in the ID was impressive, he would need to vastly improve yet again to contend here for top honors. I say he’s not fast enough. Bottom of superfecta ticket at best.
#2 CLOUD COMPUTING - A bit of an intriguing wild card with just three career races. Won his maiden race at 6 furlongs and immediately stepped up three weeks later stretching out in the Gotham with a solid 2nd. He showed good early speed and made a move into a fast pace and fought strongly to the wire. Five weeks later in the Wood Memorial, he broke out of the gate last on a day where early speed had a huge bias. He still ran a very credible race with a very solid sheet number that if he duplicates it, would strongly contend here. There’s a little concern in his last two that he shows that he was bearing in and bearing out in the stretch but he comes in off 6 weeks rest and has a chance. Chad Brown, despite not having Triple Crown success, is an outstanding trainer, does well at Pimlico and jockey, Javier Castellano chooses this colt over Gunnevera today. He’s the “X” factor and it would be no surprise to see him having a huge impact on this race. Has a real chance.
#3 HENCE - Strong closer who will come from far back and charge late in a race not typically known for closers. Has raced at 5 different tracks. Came into the Derby off a nice win in the Sunland Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0HtHUgqwvE) in a race that set up nicely for a closer like him and bounced (regressed) a bit in the Derby. He has shown consistent development and an interesting pattern but off two weeks rest, while I expect a better race than in the Derby, I don’t think he can improve enough here to contend for top honors. One to sprinkle in on bottom of superfecta tickets but not on top of tickets.
#4 ALWAYS DREAMING - The most likely winner but a very poor Preakness investment. Derby winners are almost always over bet in the Preakness. While he looked spectacular winning the Derby, let’s remember that everything went his way and he avoided all trouble and traffic early on while many others were jammed up like the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles on a Friday afternoon at 3pm after several drivers were drinking margaritas all afternoon. Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his four races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming off short rest like this. Having said that, he should be very close to the early lead again today and should be able to avoid trouble but while, I am inclined to use him a bit on top, I will do my best to beat him. Obviously a strong contender but the value is in beating this vulnerable and heavy favorite.
POST TIME: 6:48 EST
For those of you who are new to my threads, when it comes to horse racing and handicapping, you have to have the right mindset. The number one pitfall in handicapping horse racing is that you are not looking for the horse that is necessarily the most likely to win. Rather, you are looking for the horse that offers the best value. It sounds simple but it isn’t. Even for me, sometimes it’s like me putting a bowl of food in front of my dog and telling him not to eat it.
Since I am fairly well known as a recreational baseball handicapper, let me break it down this way. If the best pitcher in baseball, let’s use Clayton Kershaw, and the Dodgers were at home facing the worst team in the majors, let’s go with San Diego, using their worst pitcher, let’s go with the human piñata, Jered Weaver, you wouldn’t need to know much about baseball to determine the Dodgers are likely to win.
Now if I told you the Dodgers were EVEN money in that matchup, you might run to the bank, take cash advances on your credit cards and run to bet the Dodgers. Now, lets be crazy. Let say the Dodgers were -700 and SD was +650. Now SD is looking a bit more attractive. There is some point in the line where the Dodgers don’t make sense anymore and SD does and it’s probably a lot less than my fictitious -700/+650.
So now to the Preakness. ALWAYS DREAMING might not be Kershaw but he is the most likely winner and will be the heavy favorite. However, the value in the race lies in several other solid contenders offering tasty odds.
Throw in that ALWAYS DREAMING, while impressive in the Derby, avoided all trouble and had an easy trip while others didn’t. Also throw in that these horses are young three year olds and coming back off a two week rest is quite demanding and several horses in here are fresher and weren’t in the Derby. So already, you can see that ALWAYS DREAMING is no lock.
I'm not saying take my word as final word. There are several different scenarios that could unfold and below is a detailed analysis with some video clips.
Let’s look at the field:
#1 MULTIPLIER - Took three races to get his first win and didn’t look that spectacular and then exploded in last winning the Illinois Derby with an outstanding trip. The Illinois Derby hasn’t proven to be an excellent prep for the Triple Crown races and while his win in the ID was impressive, he would need to vastly improve yet again to contend here for top honors. I say he’s not fast enough. Bottom of superfecta ticket at best.
#2 CLOUD COMPUTING - A bit of an intriguing wild card with just three career races. Won his maiden race at 6 furlongs and immediately stepped up three weeks later stretching out in the Gotham with a solid 2nd. He showed good early speed and made a move into a fast pace and fought strongly to the wire. Five weeks later in the Wood Memorial, he broke out of the gate last on a day where early speed had a huge bias. He still ran a very credible race with a very solid sheet number that if he duplicates it, would strongly contend here. There’s a little concern in his last two that he shows that he was bearing in and bearing out in the stretch but he comes in off 6 weeks rest and has a chance. Chad Brown, despite not having Triple Crown success, is an outstanding trainer, does well at Pimlico and jockey, Javier Castellano chooses this colt over Gunnevera today. He’s the “X” factor and it would be no surprise to see him having a huge impact on this race. Has a real chance.
#3 HENCE - Strong closer who will come from far back and charge late in a race not typically known for closers. Has raced at 5 different tracks. Came into the Derby off a nice win in the Sunland Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0HtHUgqwvE) in a race that set up nicely for a closer like him and bounced (regressed) a bit in the Derby. He has shown consistent development and an interesting pattern but off two weeks rest, while I expect a better race than in the Derby, I don’t think he can improve enough here to contend for top honors. One to sprinkle in on bottom of superfecta tickets but not on top of tickets.
#4 ALWAYS DREAMING - The most likely winner but a very poor Preakness investment. Derby winners are almost always over bet in the Preakness. While he looked spectacular winning the Derby, let’s remember that everything went his way and he avoided all trouble and traffic early on while many others were jammed up like the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles on a Friday afternoon at 3pm after several drivers were drinking margaritas all afternoon. Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his four races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming off short rest like this. Having said that, he should be very close to the early lead again today and should be able to avoid trouble but while, I am inclined to use him a bit on top, I will do my best to beat him. Obviously a strong contender but the value is in beating this vulnerable and heavy favorite.
