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Definitely don't follow some clown who doesn't even know basics like dalvin cook being injured before placing a bet.
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Ilost20grand | 41 |
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Hahahah eagles were clearly the side. Close as expected. Adding chiefs -3.5. It's crazy how everyone is talking themselves into pitt. Chiefs will lay an egg eventually. Pitt hasn't looked good once yet this year. Show me once before i back you against an undefeated team.
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1347dillpill | 3 |
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Unable to see my posted record right now for some reason, but I'm positive a few units. Overall im 25-16 on the year, just need to be more consistent about posting.
Washington -10: I haven't bet a double digit favorite in a couple years in the NFL. This is one of the most brutal spots ever though. San Fran is competitive, but third straight road game and the last two went fairly deep into overtime? Against a good team coming off a bye at home? lay the chalk. Broncos -11.5: Again, rare occasion laying the chalk. Who do the giants even send out on offense? The Broncos have absolutely dominated the chargers, raiders, and cowboys at home. To think that the beat up and deflated giants keep this within 20 is just silly. Broncos off a bye, match up great, great at home, lay the chalk again. Jags -2.5: Don't look now but the jags have the best scoring difference in the nfl. Am i sold on Bortels? of course not. But he seems to have realized that if he protects the football, fournette and the defense will win them games. He's playing the game manager role well. Rams are a good team, they're improved, and McVay is a top tier coach. But the hottest team in the league laying under a field goal at home is too tempting. Bucs -2: Keep the favorite train rolling. This is a fade of the cardinals. Had high expectations and their roster is too talented to be this bad, but they are. Carson Palmer is not returning to the form of two years ago. Bucs coming off extra rest, lay the two. Eagles +3.5: I'm not totally convinced about either of these teams. You only get so much credit for scoring on new england and Detroit. This Philly defense is significantly better than those. Wentz looks great. This thursday game has coin flip written all over it, ill take the 3.5. Vikings +3.5: Packers defense is not good. Rodgers is the man, but they shouldn't even be favored in this game. Getting over a field goal is a gift. Packers beating cowboys in a prime game and then vikings looking poor vs the bears set this up as a huge trap spot. That's all for now. best of luck
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1347dillpill | 3 |
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3-2. Another day with a one point loss and a 2.5 point loss. Lame. 10-7 YTD
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1347dillpill | 2 |
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Rams +8 the rams offense looks good. Mcvay is a great playcaller. The secondary has looked fishy but they should be able to slow down zeke and keep this one close.
Broncos -2: said it week 2, I'll say it again. Denver is a tough place to play. This team is legit, despite the sloppy game against buffalo. Anything less than a field goal at home and my my money will keep going on Denver. Bucs -3: man, that game was ugly. I still trust them more than the Giants at this point and believe in this team overall. Bounce back game here for Jameis. Chargers under 47.5: two very underrated defenses. Chargers unit is legit. Great pass rush great secondary. Eagles will want to run the ball here. The concern is turnovers, as wentz and rivers have both been prone. still, I think this number should have been around 43. Taking the under. Bengals -3: I expected Cleveland to be competitive this year, and they have been. Moreso than Cincinnati. So the team that has been better is an underdog at home. The line is absolutely wrong, and browns should be favored here. However, watching the teams and having a feel for what's going on, the bengals want this more. They believe they can be a playoff team still. The browns dont. Bengals take an ugly one. Couple side notes: I will prohablt be on the Vikings when the lines out regardless of who is playing. expecting -3.5 with Bradford or around a pick em with Keenum. I like the chargers in the pick em, but that team finds ways to lose games at this point and laying off. Texans have beaten tenn 5 straight at home, and I think that continues but again, titans are the better team and not betting it. Ravens have owned the steelers recently and haven't lost by more than 4 at home to them in 15 years. Best tease of the week, not a bad bet straight up to take the 3 points. If I have to pick a Thursday side, give me chicago. Packers are banged up. Bengals game was very physical. Chicago is a good football team with a legit run game that should do well on a short week. Best of luck!
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1347dillpill | 2 |
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One more week 2 game still pending on the Giants -3 tonight.
Adding titans -2.5 week 3. Offense has looked horrible. Rub defense was surprisingly atrocious against San Francisco too. Hyde had a day. Titans should control this game start to finish.
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1347dillpill | 2 |
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This week might be a massacre. So many appealing "square" games.
Broncos -2: I had this at Broncos -6.5, and was still going to pick it. Best looking team in the NFL so far. Buffalo is a tough place to play, but how do they score here? Denver has already proven they've fixed their run D by stopping two good rushing teams as well. I don't care how much of a trap this looks like, I'm locking in early and walking in face first. Rams -2.5: this line isn't quite as fishy, but I'm sure it'll still be a huge public play. I don't think the niners are terrible. I bet them last week for a reason. But Rams offense looks improved and if their offense is even decent they're an 8 win team. Think they take an ugly game here. Bears +7.5: bears have been giving good teams fits at home lately. Falcons week 1 were a good example of that. Again, the team isn't horrible. Pittsburgh hasn't impressed. Beating a last minute case Keenum doesn't earn my appreciation. Too many points to lay on road. Cowboys -3.5: man I was big on cardinals coming into this year, but holy crap they've been awful. Dallas got exposed against Denver, but don't expect that to continue like that. No one in the league has the secondary Denver has that allows them to play the defense they did. Again, such a square play makes me feel not great, but it's the right side. Will probably be back when newer lines get posted and I have more time to evaluate games and pick some totals |
1347dillpill | 2 |
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5-2 pending Giants. Had plays on Texans and chiefs too, but didn't post so won't count. Browns and chargers both were super close. Sucks to lose every close one and just win blowouts, but it'll all balance out eventually. Lean falcons for Sunday night, but no play.
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1347dillpill | 2 |
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I don't love any of the 4 honestly. Jags seem like a decent pick, beat em at home last year, and have a defense that should keep it close, but there are better people to trust than bortels.
Falcons should be fine but no shanahan seems to hurt and packers want that double revenge from last year. Coin flip game, giving away 3 points is huge. Cowboys pick is just plain bad in my opinion. Broncos run D is improved. Yes, cowboys will still have success on the ground but how much? I'm not laying points on the road in Denver no matter who the team is. Miami is a weird game. Yes, they had more time to prepare and are more rested, but is that a good thing? This isn't like having a bye week. The chargers have one game of experience under their belts now and are probably more in the feel of the game than dolphins are. I kind of think the team playing their second game has a bigger advantage than the team playing their first with extra rest. Dolphins were not good last year, had an easy schedule and stole wins they shouldn't had. Watching film, tannehill was actually legit. I'm not trusting cutler with bosa and Ingram in his face all day and good corners on the outside. Maybe look elsewhere? Out of the 4, I'd probably say Atlanta is the best pick, but honestly I'd probably be on the other side of all 4 of those |
erratic | 17 |
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I don't love any of the 4 honestly. Jags seem like a decent pick, beat em at home last year, and have a defense that should keep it close, but there are better people to trust than bortels.
Falcons should be fine but no shanahan seems to hurt and packers want that double revenge from last year. Coin flip game, giving away 3 points is huge. Cowboys pick is just plain bad in my opinion. Broncos run D is improved. Yes, cowboys will still have success on the ground but how much? I'm not laying points on the road in Denver no matter who the team is. Miami is a weird game. Yes, they had more time to prepare and are more rested, but is that a good thing? This isn't like having a bye week. The chargers have one game of experience under their belts now and are probably more in the feel of the game than dolphins are. I kind of think the team playing their second game has a bigger advantage than the team playing their first with extra rest. Dolphins were not good last year, had an easy schedule and stole wins they shouldn't had. Watching film, tannehill was actually legit. I'm not trusting cutler with bosa and Ingram in his face all day and good corners on the outside. Maybe look elsewhere? Out of the 4, I'd probably say Atlanta is the best pick, but honestly I'd probably be on the other side of all 4 of those |
erratic | 17 |
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Hes been consistently over 55% for years. Now he's getting paid more for it? It's honestly not a bad deal. He's a high volume guy too. It's not like he's putting out 2 games a week. Seems to be going with prime time games and at least a handful on sundays. 55% going 80-100 bets a year is impressive. Assuming he stays close to as consistent, that's a small price to pay and you'll make it back 10 fold if you're betting 100 or so a game.
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TomGermany | 7 |
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1-4 for me as well. Some pretty bad beats there. Falcons half point loss, Arizona honestly dominated a good portion of that game, Odell not playing. My one win was on the freaking browns. That's how you know it was a weird week.
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rudy22 | 30 |
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Lots of value on the board this week.
Niners +14- the niners aren't as horrible as last year. The defense is capable and hoyer isn't the worst fill in qb in the world. They'll play their division rival close here. Browns +8- browns will be competitive all year. Defense and run game are above average. The rook against ravens D might be bad, but think they'll stay in this game and get the cover. Ravens offense still looked horrible vs bengals. Chargers -4- better team at home plain and simple. Fins were historically lucky last year. I think the extra rest actually hurts as chargers are more into feel of the game. Broncos+2.5- siemian looked borderline elite. He's capable, offense seems improved in the run game, and best defense in the league. This team is too good to be underdogs at home against anyone. Pats -6.5- saints won't stop pats. There is no chance. Pats will slow down saints. Do we really think pats are starting 0-2? They win this by 2-3 scores. Titans -2.5-classic case of week 1 overreaction. Titans lose to a good raiders team and jags carve up a Swiss cheese offensive line. Jags could very well be legit, but I'm not buying in yet. Take the better team. Giants -3- again, overreaction. This pick makes me uncomfortable after last week of course. But if this game was played last week, Giants would be favored by over a touchdown. Lions got dominated for a good part of that game, and Carson palmer aka Blake bortels kept them in the game and DJ got hurt. Panthers under 43: both teams want to ground and pound, both qbs looked a little shaky, both defenses looked good. Low scoring game in Carolina. Best of luck guys! Pretty rare I like this many games in a week. Especially early in year. Let's crush it. |
1347dillpill | 2 |
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Do the padres have an arm left in the bullpen? Haven't been getting quality starts recently and those arms too tired. Maybe take em first 5
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BANGTHEBOOKS | 7 |
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I don't think this will be sustainable, but maybe worth tracking. Systems like this can go on runs since you're almost always taking favorites and more likely than not they'll win a game. You just could end up losing like 10 to 1 when you do lose a series, so you really need a huge winning percentage.
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Big_Tone21 | 1476 |
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Laying 2 to 1 juice against the hottest team in baseball with a decent pitcher going for them?
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PlayWithThem | 4 |
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If they steal a game, this is it. However, I think betting against the cavs right now is silly. If you watched the regular season match ups, they looked bad for the celtics. The way the cavs have guarded the picks for Thomas has really slowed down the celtics offense, and we know the cavs can light it up on the offensive end. I understand your side, and a 1 seed getting 5.5 when they're tough on their home floor is tempting, but man I just can't pull the trigger on it here.
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placeholder | 15 |
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I think the markets are VERY comparable to sports betting. All of the concepts transfer. The difference is the ceiling in the markets is just way higher. Because of betting limits, being a successful full time sports bettor even with a solid bankroll would net you low to mid 6 figures with no room for improvement. With the right bankroll in the market your ceiling is just infinitely higher, making it far superior for a full career. Why do the hard work in sports gambling when that same hard work could make you far richer in stocks? I absolutely agree with you as far as a full time job goes. Watching a stock go up or down isn't quite the same fun though, so for those who are fans of sports that take those stock concepts still make some good cash on the side.
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Crashdavis565 | 50 |
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replied to
Show us how smart you are, if you were the coaches how would you call this game?
in NFL Betting
People keep saying Brady this and Brady that....not this time. The Falcons run D ranks near the bottom of the league. That was their issue all year. The hawks inexperienced offensive line and Packers' complete lack of run game stopped them from being exposed in the playoffs. This game for the Pats has the run blount down their throat all day kind of feel to it (Side note, that's why I see the under as a good play here).
For the Falcons, they do what they've done all year. It's match-up proof. They've stolen the Patriots mentality. You line versatile guys up, you move guys around to get a favorable match up, then you snap the ball and let your guys win said match up. The linebackers are going to be chasing around Gabriel and the runningbacks all day. If they bring extra help inside, Jones and Sanu will get single coverage and they'll go there. Some really interesting match ups. Should be a fun game.
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Crashdavis565 | 20 |
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You can absolutely make money long term sports betting. Yes it's rare, but how many people ever even try? Most people just casually throw down 30% of their bankroll on games they do no research and have no stats for. Obviously those people lose. The books are good, and it takes discipline, but to think that you can't find a couple games on any given day that give you over 53% is just naive. The people who succeed are the people who treat it as work and treat their money like investments. Does that mean there's ever a lock? No, but find 60-70% games all the time and you'll be swimming in the money with good discipline long term.
All that being said, this line seems to be right where it should be. I would agree that there's no +EV side play for the super bowl. However, with 100s of props and the total, there are quite a few +ev plays you can find.
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Crashdavis565 | 50 |
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