While this may look like an incredibly high line on the surface, digging deeper reveals why this number is perfectly grounded. The actual number in my opinion is somewhere in the -190 to -200 range. What makes this a play for me is gut feel.
What are the factors that make the -195 line a valid one? Let's start with the starters. Cashner hasn't been nearly as good as his numbers indicate. For one, he has 19 Ks vs 21 BBs. You heard that right, 19 to 21 is his K/BB ratio! His FIP is 5.09. That is pointing towards some major regression. Porcello, on the other hand, has a 58 to 12 K to BB ratio, and a much lower 3.94 FIP. Porcello allowed nearly a third of his ER in an outing against Tampa Bay more than a month ago. Who has had the better season? The answer is clearly Porcello. Who has been better the past couple of years? Porcello. Edge in starter: Boston, significantly.
Bullpen: The Sox have a 3.13 reliever ERA vs Rangers 4.66. The Sox have converted 13 out of 16 saves, whereas the Rangers 8 out of 16. Edge: Boston
Hitting: The Sox have a season avg and OPS of .267, .745 vs Rangers .237, .728. The Rangers have been hitting the ball better the past 10 games though. Edge: Tie
Defense: With Beltre out and the Red Sox better outfield defense I will go with the home team. Edge: Red Sox
Home/Away Splits: The Rangers perform much better at home than on the road as shown by their 16-8 Home vs 8-13 Away records. The Sox do better at Home 12-9 than on the Away 10-12.
In conclusion, the line does not hold any value for the Red Sox bettor in this situation. However, I think the above justifies the number released by the oddsmakers. What makes it a play for me, again, is instinct.
While this may look like an incredibly high line on the surface, digging deeper reveals why this number is perfectly grounded. The actual number in my opinion is somewhere in the -190 to -200 range. What makes this a play for me is gut feel.
What are the factors that make the -195 line a valid one? Let's start with the starters. Cashner hasn't been nearly as good as his numbers indicate. For one, he has 19 Ks vs 21 BBs. You heard that right, 19 to 21 is his K/BB ratio! His FIP is 5.09. That is pointing towards some major regression. Porcello, on the other hand, has a 58 to 12 K to BB ratio, and a much lower 3.94 FIP. Porcello allowed nearly a third of his ER in an outing against Tampa Bay more than a month ago. Who has had the better season? The answer is clearly Porcello. Who has been better the past couple of years? Porcello. Edge in starter: Boston, significantly.
Bullpen: The Sox have a 3.13 reliever ERA vs Rangers 4.66. The Sox have converted 13 out of 16 saves, whereas the Rangers 8 out of 16. Edge: Boston
Hitting: The Sox have a season avg and OPS of .267, .745 vs Rangers .237, .728. The Rangers have been hitting the ball better the past 10 games though. Edge: Tie
Defense: With Beltre out and the Red Sox better outfield defense I will go with the home team. Edge: Red Sox
Home/Away Splits: The Rangers perform much better at home than on the road as shown by their 16-8 Home vs 8-13 Away records. The Sox do better at Home 12-9 than on the Away 10-12.
In conclusion, the line does not hold any value for the Red Sox bettor in this situation. However, I think the above justifies the number released by the oddsmakers. What makes it a play for me, again, is instinct.
The Cubs are playing much better as of late. Lester is a beast at home. This rematch of last year's LDS will pump up the Cubs and remind them what they're capable of.
The Cubs are playing much better as of late. Lester is a beast at home. This rematch of last year's LDS will pump up the Cubs and remind them what they're capable of.
Everyone on the lineup who has had at bats vs Chacin has had success against him. Collectively that's 13 for 23 with 3 HR. I'll take my chances against a weak Padres offense.
Everyone on the lineup who has had at bats vs Chacin has had success against him. Collectively that's 13 for 23 with 3 HR. I'll take my chances against a weak Padres offense.
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