In Thursday’s trio of World Cup matches, one sizable underdog is drawing substantial sharp play against one of soccer’s elite sides. Covers checks in on the action and movement for all three games, with insights from Jacob Crossman, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook BetDSI.eu, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas.
Group C
Denmark vs. Australia
Denmark opened its World Cup schedule with a 1-0 victory over Peru as a +105 favorite Saturday. Yussuf Poulsen found the net in the 59th minute for the Danes, who with a win Thursday could put themselves in great position to advance to the knockout phase.
Australia gave France a much tougher time than expected, but fell short 2-1 as a healthy +950 underdog. The Aussies played the French to a stalemate in the first half and quickly rebounded after giving up a 58th-minute penalty kick, with Mile Jedinak countering four minutes later on a PK. But an 80th-minute France score sealed the loss.
However, Australia’s effort was enough to impress bettors for this 8 a.m. ET match.
“BetDSI opened with Denmark as a -125 favorite on the three-way line. We have seen some sharp action on the Socceroos over the last couple days, though, knocking Denmark down to a -105 favorite on the three-way line,” Crossman said. “The opening line was a bit too optimistic for the Danes. They were outplayed by Peru in the opener and were somewhat fortunate to get the 3 points. Meanwhile, Australia was surprisingly decent in defense versus France.”
CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, also opened Denmark -125 and were still there Wednesday afternoon. However, Australia dipped from +360 to +345 and the draw from +260 to +240.
“Fairly even action on both sides, and seeing some over-the-counter money show up on the draw,” Bernanke said. “Australia has caught the eye of bettors with its spread-covering performance versus France, while Denmark has been overlooked by bettors from the get-go and could be a dangerous team, with a world-class and underrated midfielder Christian Eriksen.”
France vs. Peru
France is among the tournament favorites, but had its hands full with Australia as a -400 chalk on Saturday. Paul Pogba was initially credited with the 80th-minute score that gave France a 2-1 victory, though the shot was later ruled to have deflected off an Aussie, technically making it an own-goal.
Peru went off as a +261 pup against Denmark and lost 1-0 Saturday. The Peruvian side is a much bigger ‘dog against France, but that’s not dissuading BetDSI bettors for the 11 a.m. ET start.
“Heavy action has come in on Peru since the line opened. Peru was a +750 underdog to knock off France originally, but the sharps have moved that down considerably,” Crossman said. “Peru is currently +475 on the three-way line, and 40 percent of our handle is on Peru. The worst result of the day for us would be a Peru victory. We have seen some action on the Over here, too.”
CG opened France -210 and moved to -190, with Peru actually ticking up a shade from +525 to +550 and the draw going from +325 to +315.
“Ninety-five percent of account money on Peru, and 75 percent of over-the-counter money on Peru,” Bernanke said, noting account bettors also heavily favored Under 2.5 goals, while over-the-counter cash was on the Over. “Sharps are on Peru and Under, public is on Peru and Over. Peru has been a public dark horse, and historically, public dark horses have not done well. But France’s unimpressive showing against Australia has bettors thinking twice about backing Les Bleus.”
Group D
Argentina vs. Croatia
Argentina ended up settling for a surprising 1-1 draw against Iceland on Saturday, despite entering its tournament opener as a -300 fave. With the game tied at 1 in the 63rd minute, superstar Lionel Messi had a penalty kick denied by Iceland keeper Hannes Halldorsson.
Croatia had no such issues in a 2-0 victory over Nigeria as a -153 favorite. Luka Modric set up the first goal on a 32nd-minute corner kick, then scored the second goal on a 71st-minute penalty kick.
Messi and Argentina are favored in this 2 p.m. Eastern tilt, but the line has slid toward Croatia.
“Our sharps are on the underdog again here,” Crossman said. “Argentina was originally a -125 favorite on the three-way line, but we have had to move them to +110. The inability of the Argentine attack to break through Iceland's defense, coupled with the poor play we saw out of Willy Caballero, has many of our bettors doubting the presumptive favorites in Group D.”
That wasn’t quite the case at CG, which made a more modest move on the Argentines from -105 to +105, with Croatia correspondingly going from +305 to +295, while the draw was steady at +235.
“Seventy percent of all dollars on Argentina,” Bernanke said. “I anticipate the public coming in hard on Argentina after its surprising 1-1 draw with Iceland. Argentina is one of the faves, and Messi always attracts money, as is he is one of the more polarizing figures in the World Cup. Croatia is just another solid UEFA team that, without the star power, bettors will overlook.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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