The names are different but the situations stay the same.
Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity – and value – looking for teams in these certain situations.
We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.
Check out Book I of Covers' Bowl Betting Bible: Capping Thy Coaches, Book II: Money From Motivation, Book III: The Waiting Game.
BOOK IV: BE MINDFUL OF MILES BURNED DURING BOWL SEASON
Earning a spot on the college football bowl calendar is not only rewarding for the money poured into the program or the chance to play in a nationally showcased game.
For many players, a bowl games means a chance to get outside of the norm – to get off campus and travel to far-off exotic places. For some teams, though, bowl season can often mean a two-hour bus trip down the highway, which has its positives and negatives.
Some programs and their fan bases have the benefit of staying near campus for their bowl game, which means good ticket sales and a home-field advantage. However, sometimes not getting to travel for a bowl game is disappointing to players and can hurt their motivation heading in.
There are a number of programs staying close to home this bowl season, none more than the Florida Atlantic Owls, who host the Akron Zips on their home field in the Boca Raton Bowl on December 19. The Owls opened as 17.5-point favorites and have been bet up to -22.5, going 5-2 ATS inside FAU Football Stadium this season.
Another bowl team essentially playing host this month is the Memphis Tigers, who will take on the Iowa State Cylones in the Liberty Bowl – played in Memphis, Tennessee. The Tigers were 4-2-1 ATS inside Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium and are pegged as 3.5-point chalk for this December 30 matchup.
The Navy Midshipmen are saving some serious money on gas, hosting the Virginia Cavaliers in the Military Bowl. The Middies opened -3.5 and are now a pick, despite playing on the home field in Annapolis, Maryland on December 28. Navy went just 2-3-1 ATS at home this season.
The “Turnover Chain” doesn’t stray too far from South Beach when the Miami Hurricanes face the Wisconsin Badgers in the Orange Bowl on December 30. The Canes get the advantage of playing at Hard Rock Stadium, where the finished 3-4 ATS and are getting nearly a touchdown versus the Badgers.
Other programs who could enjoy a home-field advantage by staying relatively close to home this bowl season are Troy (New Orleans Bowl), FIU (Gasparilla Bowl), Texas (Texas Bowl), and Wake Forest (Belk Bowl).
As we’ve seen in the past, travel can play a big part in bowl performance. Outside of the Hawaii Bowl and Bahamas Bowl, a number of programs will a long way from campus come bowl season.
One of the farthest treks, without leaving the mainland, is the Georgia Bulldogs’ 2,240-mile trip from Athens to the Rose Bowl, to play Oklahoma in the CFP semifinal. However, UGA will be in California well ahead of time and will travel well for this New Year’s Day showdown.
The same might not be said for the Purdue Boilermakers, who are 2,265 away from home for their date with Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara, California. Purdue was 3-2 ATS on the road and is getting 4-points from oddsmakers for this December 27 game. If anything, the trip West will help the Boilermakers escape the cold Indiana winter for a few days.
Fellow Big Ten member Michigan State is in a similar situation, traveling 2,282 miles to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl on December 28. The Spartans are 2.5-point underdogs playing Washington State in this postseason matchup, and posted just a 2-3 ATS mark away from East Lansing this season.
North Carolina State is a 6.5-point favorite in the Sun Bowl despite traveling 1,823 miles to El Paso, Texas to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Wolfpack went 2-2-1 ATS away from this season but are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine bowl appearances heading into this December 29 contest.
Some other schools stacking up the frequent flyer miles this month are Marshall (1,495 miles to New Mexico Bowl), Army (1,460 miles to Armed Forces Bowl), West Virginia (1,203 miles to Heart of Dallas Bowl), Kansas State (1,118 miles to Cactus Bowl), and Texas A&M (1,068 miles to Belk Bowl).
Measuring how much of a home-field edge teams will have for the true neutral-site games is tough. Looking back at road records is a good indicator of how a program performs out of its element but if you want to gauge how the percentage of school colors in the stands you should keep a close eye on ticket sales.
Every bowl team is allotted a certain number of tickets to sell to its faithful. Often times, location (is it a vacation destination like Florida or California?), opponent (is it even worth going to see?), and time of the month (close to Christmas or New Year’s?) have a huge impact on whether fans will travel to the game or not.
Heading into the first weekend of bowl action Middle Tennessee is reporting great ticket sales for its matchup with Arkansas State for the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The Blue Raiders are 3.5-point underdogs and could be without their top two running backs – Tavares Thomas and Brad Anderson – on December 16.
Central Florida’s push for an undefeated campaign, and Scott Frost’s swan song on the sidline, have sparked huge interest in the Knights showdown with Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Available tickets were sold out, so expected a good crowd for UCF in Atlanta on New Year’s Day.
New Mexico State’s first bowl appearance in 57 years has Aggies fans buying up tickets ahead of the team’s showdown with Utah State in the Arizona Bowl on December 29. New Mexico State opened as a field-goal fave but action on the other “Aggies” has moved this line to NMSU +4.
One bowl not expected to have a lot of supporters for its postseason game is Iowa, which reported very poor ticket sales for its matchup with Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. In the first two weeks of sales, Iowa reported just 1,000 tickets purchased from their 7,500 allotment. The school gave away another 1,000 tickets, leaving a possible 5,500 seats empty for this December 27 game. Iowa is a 3-point favorite versus Boston College.
Some friendly faces can go a long way when these programs hit the highway for their bowl games. That home-field feel may just be the difference when spreads get tight this postseason.
Check out Book I of Covers' Bowl Betting Bible: Capping Thy Coaches, Book II: Money From Motivation, Book III: The Waiting Game.
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