Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity and value looking for teams in these certain situations.
We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.
BOOK I: CAPPING THY COACHES
One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.
That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.
“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.
Perhaps the biggest coaching change, as it pertains to bowl season, is Scott Frost leaving Central Florida for the job at Nebraska ahead of the Knights' showdown with Auburn as 9.5-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl. Central Florida was snubbed by the CFP committee, despite an undefeated record, and is hoping Frost will be on the sideline for this finale against a SEC power. As of mid-December, Frost is back with the team and running practices and looks like he will coach on New Year’s Day. But, should those plans fall through closer to kickoff, it will be interesting to see where the team’s head is at.
Another big-name coaching move this bowl season is Jimbo Fisher bailing on Florida State for Texas A&M, replacing Kevin Sumlin and putting interim coach Jeff Banks in charge of the Aggies (+3) versus Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl. Fisher’s former programs, the Seminoles, barely became bowl eligible after a disastrous season, and will now face Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl, giving 15.5 points to the Golden Eagles on December 27.
Long-time defensive line coach Odell Haggins will step in as interim coach for the bowl game. While Haggins commands a lot of respect, being with the programs since 1994, many of those FSU standouts have to be thinking about their place in new head coach Willie Taggart’s system in 2018. Even Haggins has to be polishing his resume, not knowing his future in Tallahassee.
Taggart left Oregon before its showdown with Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and had Mario Cristobal in place as an interim for the bowl game. However, with so much support – especially from the Ducks roster - Cristobal was eventually promoted to head coach and is hoping to ride that momentum to a victory over the Broncos on December 16. Oregon opened -5.5 and is now giving 7.5 points in Las Vegas.
In a funny twist, Arizona State will have recently-fired head coach Todd Graham on the sideline for the Sun Devils' matchups with North Carolina State in the Sun Bowl. Graham was axed at the end of the year - replaced by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards - but he and his staff are hoping the players send them off as winners, despite oddsmakers pegging ASU as a 6.5-point underdog against the Wolfpack in El Paso, Texas.
Mississippi State takes on Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl on December minus head coach Dan Mullen, who leaves the Bulldogs for SEC rival Florida. That has interim Greg Knox running things this month as new head coach Joe Moorehead hits the recruiting trail and puts his staff together for 2018. Mississippi State is a 6.5-point underdog for this game at EverBank Field in Jacksonville.
Rounding out the coaching moves this bowl season is Chad Morris leaving SMU for Arkansas, with the Mustangs as 5-point faves versus Louisiana Tech in the DXL Frisco Bowl. Southern Methodist will look to interim coach Jeff Traylor, who will then go with Morris to the run the Razorbacks. So, who knows where his focus will be for this December 20 game in Frisco, Texas.
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