Only three games separate the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings and they begin a crucial four-game series at Wrigley Field tonight. We break down the odds for that game and much more as we bring you the top baseball betting notes and analysis along with our fearless predictions in our Daily MLB Line Drive. **video
DOUBLE-PLAY PICKS
ST LOUIS CARDINALS AT CHICAGO CUBS (-105, 7 @ BETAMERICA)
The Cardinals are now three games ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central standings but with seven of their last 10 games of the season against the Cubbies this race is far from over. Today they'll send Jack Flaherty to the hill and the 23-year-old has a 10-8 record with a 3.05 ERA. Over his last 13 outings, Flaherty has been as good as any starter in the majors pitching to a 1.07 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over that span.
The home side will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound and while the right-hander have been unreliable on the road he's been terrific at Wrigley Field going 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and a BAA of .194. He has allowed just a single run in each of his last three starts.
The Under is 13-5-1 in the Cards last 19 games on the road and is 6-0-2 in Flaherty's last eight away starts. With the Under hitting in each of the last four games in the head to head back it again tonight.
PICK: Under 7
KANSAS CITY ROYALS AT MINNESOTA TWINS (-280, 10 @ BETAMERICA)
Speaking of Cubs pitchers, former Cubs reliever Mike Montgomery gets the start tonight for the Royals as they take on the Twins. Since Kansas City acquired him midseason and began using him as a starter he is 2-7 with a 4.23 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a BAA of .307.
Minnesota will give the ball to Kyle Gibson who is 13-7 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He has started three games against the Royals this year (all three Minnesota victories) pitching to a 3.26 ERA and a BAA of .194.
When it comes to hitting Minnesota has the clear edge having already broken the major league record for homeruns in a season and ranking second in the bigs in scoring with 5.77 runs per game. Kansas City on the other hand is the third-lowest scoring team in the majors plating just 4.20 runs per game.
The Twins are 5-1 in the last six meetings in the head to head, and their last four wins came by multiple runs. I'm backing them on the runline again tonight.
PICK: Runline Minnesota -1.5 (-140)
Yesterday's picks: 1-0 (Dylan Covey was scratched for Chicago's game)
Season to date: 158-160-7
STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS
STREAKING
Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians (11-3, 2.68 ERA, $126): After missing the first two months of the season with an upper back strain, Clevinger is back to his best for the Tribe. He's been absolutely cooking in his last six starts going 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 54 strikeouts through 40 innings.
Today, Clevinger and Cleveland are -390 favorites against the worst team in baseball the Detroit Tigers. The Indians have won 16 straight games against the Tigers this season and 14 of those victories have come by multiple runs. The Cleveland runline is installed at -150 and the alternate runline of -2.5 pays out at -110.
SLUMPING
Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners (6-10, 5.46 ERA, -358): Kikuchi started the season off promisingly enough with a 3.43 ERA after his first 11 starts but he's been getting rocked ever since. Over his last four starts the M's are 1-3 and he has a 7.72 ERA with a 2.14 WHIP.
This afternoon, Kikuchi and the Mariners are +120 underdogs for their interleague matchup in Pittsburgh. The Pirates and the Mariners have been the two best Over teams in the majors with Pittsburgh going 87-59-6 O/U and Seattle going 85-61-6 O/U. With the total for today set at 9 and the inconsistent Joe Musgrove taking the mound for the Pirates the Over is worth a look.
WEATHER
3 STRIKES
THAT REALLY HITS (AT) HOME
Mike Soroka is likely both an NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young candidate but unlike most pitchers he actually fares much worse at home. The 22-year-old has a 4.18 ERA with a .276 BAA in 12 starts in Atlanta which is far inferior to the 1.35 ERA and .195 BAA he has on the road.
This afternoon, Soroka and the Braves host the Phillies and starter Aaron Nola. The Phillies have hit .395 in games against Soroka this year and are 5-1 in Nola's last six starts against the Braves. Philadelphia is an intriguing underdog play at +140.
BAD TEAMS, BIG BATS
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays have absolutely nothing to do with the playoff picture but they are pretty fun to watch right now, especially if you like hitting. Both teams have an exciting group of young hitters and have combined for a total of 12.5 runs per game in their last six games head to head.
Toronto's Randal Grichuk (4 homers and nine RBI in his last seven games) is red-hot at the moment while Trey Mancini (.392 BA and 14 RBI in his previous six games) has the hot bat for Baltimore. Taking the Over 1.5 on either Grichuk or Mancini's total bases pays out at -115 and the O/U for the game total is installed at 10.5
EASY EDUARDO
Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been making things look easy for the last month. Over his last six starts he has a 1.15 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He's also the No. 1 money pitcher in the majors making bettors a $1437 profit based on $100 units, all the more impressive when you consider how often the Red Sox were big favorites this season.
Rodriguez and the Red Sox are -165 faves at home against the Giants this afternoon. But a win won't come easy, the Giants are 6-0 in their last six interleague games on the road and are 12-4 in Madison Bumgarner's previous 16 starts. The Red Sox have also dropped five straight games at Fenway.
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