Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-1.5, 224)
Series tied 0-0.
The Houston Rockets have had the look all season of a team ready to dethrone the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference. They now get their chance to try to turn that vision into a reality when the star-studded squads tangle in the best-of-seven conference finals, beginning with Game 1 on Monday night in Houston.
The Rockets won the West by seven games over the second-place Warriors and took two of three regular-season meetings while averaging 117.3 points, and they've cruised to their second conference finals in four seasons - the last in 2015 resulting in a lopsided series loss at the hands of Golden State - with back-to-back 4-1 series wins over Minnesota and Utah. The defending NBA champion Warriors also needed just five games to get by each of their first two opponents and are seeking their fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. "We know they are a great team," Golden State coach Steve Kerr recently told the media of the Rockets. "We know they are ready, and we'll be ready for them." The teams last met in the playoffs in 2016, when the Warriors rolled in five games in a first-round matchup.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT
SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):
LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened the betting for Game 1 as 2-point home favorites and that numbers has been pushed down slightly to 1.5 as of Sunday night. The total hit betting boards at 225 and has been dropped to 225. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The two best teams in the NBA face off in the Western Conference finals and the winner will be a substantial favorite to win the NBA Finals. Look-ahead odds give the Warriors a 86% chance to defeat the Cavaliers and 91% chance to defeat the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Rockets will have a 78% chance to defeat the Cavaliers and an 88% chance to defeat the Celtics in the NBA Finals." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “The sharps are on the Warriors – moneyline and pointspread – as well as the Under. The public is on the Warriors and the Over.” - Will Bernanke, Lead Data Analyst at CG Technology in Las Vegas.
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - SG P. McCaw (Early June, Back), SF C. Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).
Rockets - No injuries to report.
MATCHUP CHART:
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (66-26 SU, 39-52-1 ATS, 43-48-1 O/U): Golden State returned to full power when Stephen Curry came back from a knee injury in Game 2 of the semifinal series against New Orleans, and the two-time MVP showed little rust as he averaged 24.5 points while making 44.1 percent of his 3-pointers during the series. His presence makes the defending champs a complete team that is supremely confident, even as a rare underdog. "No, I like where we are," Kerr told the media. "Our guys have rings. That's a good position to be in. To me, the hardest championship is the first one, as an individual player and as a team, because you don't know - you don't quite know - if you can do it."
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (73-19 SU, 47-44-1 ATS, 38-53-1 O/U): The big difference between past Houston teams that have faltered against Golden State is the notable addition of point guard Chris Paul, who averaged 21.8 points through the first two rounds. "We've got eight more wins to get," he told reporters when asked if he celebrated his first trip to the conference finals in his 13-year career. "I don't know what it's supposed to feel like, but we've still got a lot of work to do." Backcourt mate James Harden continues to stuff the stat sheet and has joined Michael Jordan (1988-89 and 1990-91) as the second player in NBA history to average at least 28 points, seven assists, five boards and two steals while playing more than five games in a postseason.
CHEERLEADER BATTLE:
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games.
* Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors' last 4 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 10-1 in Rockets' last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Click here for complete list of hot and cold trends.
COVERS CONSENSUS:
There are 55 percent of pointspread bets on the underdog Warriors while 73 percent of total bets are on the Over. Find up-to-date Covers Consensus numbers here.
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